DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

It might be that we're seeing a lot more early polls than we used to?

The November matchup got set a lot earlier than usual this time, which may have encouraged early polling.

A scan of these Wikipedia tables shows December-January polling as far back as 1948 (another cycle when the matchup was known early):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

a quick scan of several election years (including 2016) shows a lot of shift before election day. Clinton had as large as an eight-point lead as late as August.

if the coverage is honest this year, instead of "balanced" I'd hope there would be movement away from Trump and his authoritarian retribution platform. But who knows? It seems most people either aren't aware or don't care what Trump is saying in his rallies.

DaveSchmidt said:

drummerboy said:

It might be that we're seeing a lot more early polls than we used to?

The November matchup got set a lot earlier than usual this time, which may have encouraged early polling.

A scan of these Wikipedia tables shows December-January polling as far back as 1948 (another cycle when the matchup was known early):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

yeah, but I'm guessing that these days we're just more inundated with polling news. More news sources, more pollsters and probably more emphasis on them as journalism has degraded into focusing on the horse race aspects. Not just early polls but polls in general.

ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

mtierney said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/29/opinion/student-protests-columbia-israel.html

You think? 

The upside of students taking over campuses for all the right reasons. But who remembers Oct 7th? Do pro- palestine activitists give a pass to Hamas?

do you give a pass to Israel for killing 20,000+ Gazan civilians?

it's nearly 35,000 now

I was trying to leave out the number of Hamas members killed, as I figured they're fair game. It's hard to get accurate breakdowns though.

drummerboy said:

ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

mtierney said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/29/opinion/student-protests-columbia-israel.html

You think? 

The upside of students taking over campuses for all the right reasons. But who remembers Oct 7th? Do pro- palestine activitists give a pass to Hamas?

do you give a pass to Israel for killing 20,000+ Gazan civilians?

it's nearly 35,000 now

I was trying to leave out the number of Hamas members killed, as I figured they're fair game. It's hard to get accurate breakdowns though.

that's also only the confirmed dead. There are about 10,000 people missing.

It's a big number regardless of how we look at it

ml1 said:

that's also only the confirmed dead. There are about 10,000 people missing.

It's a big number regardless of how we look at it

ya got that right.

including injured and wounded it's 100k.

and growing.

The schools have been taken over by the mob mentality. Faculty, students, and staff must be able to conduct University business without disruption, harassment, or threat. Period. One thing is protesting another thing is threatening people and illegal occupation of the school faculties. What’s next? Physical harm to Jews and other people who don’t support this terrorism? 

Occupying buildings, even vandalism, isn't good policy imo, but it's not terrorism either.

mjc said:

Occupying buildings, even vandalism, isn't good policy imo, but it's not terrorism either.

the terrorism is the intimidation of Jewish students and professors on campus. 

drummerboy said:

do you give a pass to Israel for killing 20,000+ Gazan civilians?

My personal 10/7 will always be 10/8, the date when my daughter was found dead in bed, at 57, so the time frame is a bit skewed for me. That being the case, I thought all hate was rightly directed at Hamas, which took “credit” for the horrific events of 10/7. 

But the very aggressive response of Israel, along with a sense of righteous justice and for the safe return of hostages, (supported in most free countries across the globe) began to sour as Israel quickly responded with a mighty force. And as our eyes became accustomed to viewing destroyed buildings, mounds of dead pulled from these former homes, schools, businesses, and desperate pleas for the return of loved ones, watched on our TV and computer screens.

Israel knew the territory and knew that massive tunnels, big enough for vehicular traffic, existed under the public buildings in Gaza, and Israel’s quick and powerful response, supported  initially by all, I believe,  turned the tide of support for Israel.

The moronic children of the pandemic, who had already lost their high school classroom experiences, and  proms — graduations were held over Zoom— and now they are threatening to destroy the education of  thousands of college students across America.

Why? Because they can, and because they really don’t have a clue.  

What is clear, at least to me, is the fact that anti-semitism is alive,  and prospering in America.

mtierney said:

drummerboy said:

do you give a pass to Israel for killing 20,000+ Gazan civilians?

My personal 10/7 will always be 10/8, the date when my daughter was found dead in bed, at 57, so the time frame is a bit skewed for me. That being the case, I thought all hate was rightly directed at Hamas, which took “credit” for the horrific events of 10/7. 

But the very aggressive response of Israel, along with a sense of righteous justice and for the safe return of hostages, (supported in most free countries across the globe) began to sour as Israel quickly responded with a mighty force. And as our eyes became accustomed to viewing destroyed buildings, mounds of dead pulled from these former homes, schools, businesses, and desperate pleas for the return of loved ones, watched on our TV and computer screens.

Israel knew the territory and knew that massive tunnels, big enough for vehicular traffic, existed under the public buildings in Gaza, and Israel’s quick and powerful response, supported  initially by all, I believe,  turned the tide of support for Israel.

The moronic children of the pandemic, who had already lost their high school classroom experiences, and  proms — graduations were held over Zoom— and now they are threatening to destroy the education of  thousands of college students across America.

Why? Because they can, and because they really don’t have a clue.  

What is clear, at least to me, is the fact that anti-semitism is alive,  and prospering in America.

well, I do appreciate the substantive response you gave. quite unusual. I feel honored, almost.

however, this:

The moronic children of the pandemic, who had already lost their high
school classroom experiences, and proms — graduations were held over
Zoom— and now they are threatening to destroy the education
of thousands of college students across America.

is just pretty ridiculous. the fact that you feel the need to tie in pandemic policies to this is absurd. It makes me wonder what talking head you heard that put that talking point together.

Re: Polls, and voters paying attention.

This is from - Poll: Biden and Trump supporters sharply divided by the media they consume (nbcnews.com)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Supporters of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are sharply divided across all sorts of lines, including the sources they rely on to get their news, new data from the NBC News poll shows.

Biden is the clear choice of voters who consume newspapers and national network news, while Trump does best among voters who don’t follow political news at all.

The stark differences help highlight the strategies both candidates are using as they seek another term in the White House — and shed some light on why the presidential race appears relatively stable.

The poll looked at various forms of traditional media (newspapers, national network news and cable news), as well as digital media (social media, digital websites and YouTube/Google). Among registered voters, 54% described themselves as primarily traditional news consumers, while 40% described themselves as primarily digital media consumers.

Biden holds an 11-point lead among traditional news consumers in a head-to-head presidential ballot test, with 52% support among that group to Trump’s 41%. But it’s basically a jump ball among digital media consumers, with Trump at 47% and Biden at 44%.

And Trump has a major lead among those who don’t follow political news — 53% back him, and 27% back Biden.

“It’s almost comic. If you’re one of the remaining Americans who say you read a newspaper to get news, you are voting for Biden by 49 points,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll alongside Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt.

nohero said:

And Trump has a major lead among those who don’t follow political news — 53% back him, and 27% back Biden.

“It’s almost comic. If you’re one of the remaining Americans who say you read a newspaper to get news, you are voting for Biden by 49 points,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll alongside Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt.

My baby carriage was tied to the newsstand outside my parents’ candy store in Brooklyn so I could get some fresh air. Growing up, I had numerous additions of the numerous  daily newspapers to peruse. Very handy, back in the day, before kitty litter was even a thing, and folks would have thought buying it ludicrous with all the newspapers in the house! Shredding newspapers daily to keep our cats comfy was a daily mindless habit. (in retrospect, the ink ran, making a mess!)

That said, along with the facts that, as an adult I worked for a magazine in Manhattan, and, as a news gatherer for a midwest paper, and, as well,  as an  editor at a weekly. For the 48 years years as Maplewood residents, we always had Newark newspapers delivered —  commercial kitty litter hadn’t become available.

 Even now, I have digital subscriptions to the WSJ and NYT ( have the papers delivered on the weekend) and  I will not vote for Biden (if he is actually still on the ballot by November). So much for polls!

mtierney said:

 Even now, I have digital subscriptions to the WSJ and NYT ( have the papers delivered on the weekend) and  I will not vote for Biden (if he is actually still on the ballot by November). So much for polls!

Nobody ever said that information could trump hate.

No one can say misinformation could trump truth, either…

mtierney said:

No one can say misinformation could trump truth, either…

Illustrated by Trump misinformation against truth.

mtierney said:

No one can say misinformation could trump truth, either…

you are once again spreading lies, which you manage to do with some regularity.

the offense did not occur after the election, as your cartoon claims.

I am posting the following WSJ article today — way too complicated doings — and the fact that I had to look up three words within. Can anyone find the words?

Putin’s New Burisma Meme

Regard a Moscow conspiracy theory as a palate cleanser for your 2024 spookfest.

By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.Follow

April 30, 2024 at 4:53 pm ET

Here are two things that actually happened in our world.

In 2020, veterans of the U.S. intelligence establishment, including three former CIA chiefs and 48 others, deliberately lied about Russia being behind the Hunter Biden laptop.

At the time, Vladimir Putin, in his one statement on the matter, didn’t mention or recriminate over the U.S. false attribution to Russia. He did, however, echo a Biden campaign talking point that Hunter had done nothing wrong.

Flash forward. The closest thing to a Putin doppelganger, Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia’s national security council, on April 3 equally falsely claimed the U.S. was behind the terrorist attack 12 days earlier on a Moscow concert hall.

In subsequent days, Russian investigators further adumbrated that the Ukrainian company Hunter worked for, Burisma, was suspected of financing the attack. The accusation was then repeated by Russia’s envoy to the U.N.

Possible (I would say likely) message from Russia’s president to Joe Biden: Don’t forget, I behaved conveniently vis a vis Hunter and Burisma last time you ran for the White House.

On April 18, using yet another diplomatic channel to get the signal out, a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman specifically addressed the Burisma claim by name-checking Mr. Putin and his recommendation to wait for the investigation to be completed.

Don’t imagine the U.S. State Department fails to pick up on such messages. Picking up on such messages is its job.

Of course, both the U.S. laptop lie and the Russian lie about U.S. involvement in the Moscow attack are ridiculous. Contrary to the U.S. retired officials, the laptop had none of the “classic earmarks” of a Russian intelligence operations, in terms of means, motive and opportunity. The lesson of the two episodes, however, is a valuable one. We are likely on the cusp of a deluge of such claims in 2024.

In truth, Americans by now should be inured. The widely touted intelligence finding that Russia sought to elect Mr. Trump in 2016? It was the product of a handpicked interagency team led by Obama CIA Director John Brennan. Handpicking is what you do to assure a predetermined conclusion. If new reporting is correct, the prevailing agency view at the time was actually that Mr. Putin preferred Hillary Clinton as the predictable partner.

Ditto the assertion by Obama National Intelligence Director James Clapper that the 2016 Electoral College outcome was so close (44,000 votes in three states), that Russia must have pushed Mr. Trump over the top. This is a deliberate distortion. Mr. Clapper, of all people, knows the allegations of unsavory Trump-Russia ties that filled hours of airtime would have cost Mr. Trump many more votes than any Russian Facebook diddlings could possibly have gained him.

Until further notice, do not automatically trust U.S. intelligence claims.

Indeed, if Mr. Putin is such a capable meddler (he’s not), it follows that he intended to aid Mrs. Clinton by tarring Mr. Trump as the Kremlin favorite.

This at least is consistent with the testimony of the Obama intelligence team on March 20, 2017, that Russia’s “loudness”—its seeming desire to call attention to its meddling—was intentional.

It’s consistent with the findings of the Harvard Berkman-Klein Center for Internet and Society that Russia’s real success was getting Americans to exaggerate Russia’s success.

It’s consistent with Trump critic and former national security aide Fiona Hill’s claim in the New York Times that while Russian diplomats falsely denied meddling in the 2016 race, they quite accurately noted that it was U.S. partisans who made mountains out of molehills.

The first person I heard suggest Putin trolls were getting aboard the Trump bandwagon was me, in August 2015, noting the curious tone of certain online comments (which of course is not proof).

I would have been an ignoramus not to know Russian intelligence is active on social media. The Internet Research Agency of the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, first of all, was a money-making operation. Mr. Trump was a click magnet. But neither Mr. Putin nor our intelligence officials kid themselves on a key point: Contributing to the torrent of anonymous social media memes is not one-millionth as effective as official disinformation spoken by credible sources and transmitted via the mainstream media. The idea of Mr. Trump, especially, engaging in complicated coordinated action, when he can change the media diet of the whole planet just by issuing a tweet, is impossibly jejune.

The lesson as the sheer volume of such throwaway disinformation likely reaches diluvian proportions this year? It’s the same lesson I drew for you in 2020 when the U.S. intelligence veterans issued their false statement on the Hunter laptop. That lesson in full: “I am sorry to say to some of my readers: If you’re so dumb as to lose all critical judgment every time you hear the word ‘Russians,’ somebody will take advantage of it.”

From all signs, you’re going to need this advice as the 2024 election heats up.

mtierney said:

That said, along with the facts that, as an adult I worked for a magazine in Manhattan, and, as a news gatherer for a midwest paper, and, as well,  as an  editor at a weekly. For the 48 years years as Maplewood residents, we always had Newark newspapers delivered —  commercial kitty litter hadn’t become available.

 Even now, I have digital subscriptions to the WSJ and NYT ( have the papers delivered on the weekend) and  I will not vote for Biden (if he is actually still on the ballot by November). So much for polls!

This background just puts your postings here in a poor light, as it shows you aren't posting from ignorance or inability, but that you are actively choosing partisan lies.

PVW said:

This background just puts your postings here in a poor light, as it shows you aren't posting from ignorance or inability, but that you are actively choosing partisan lies.

So, experience counts for nothing?

mtierney said:

PVW said:

This background just puts your postings here in a poor light, as it shows you aren't posting from ignorance or inability, but that you are actively choosing partisan lies.

So, experience counts for nothing?

not when you deliberately ignore your experience and continually post lies and ignore multiple people telling you why they are lies.

mtierney said:

PVW said:

This background just puts your postings here in a poor light, as it shows you aren't posting from ignorance or inability, but that you are actively choosing partisan lies.

So, experience counts for nothing?

Your experience should have taught you the value of factual information. Why you have chosen to cast that aside, only you can say.

mtierney said:

So, experience counts for nothing?

mtierney said:

I am posting the following WSJ article today — way too complicated doings — and the fact that I had to look up three words within. Can anyone find the words?

“Wrong.”

“Lie.”

“Inured.”

mtierney said:

My baby carriage was tied to the newsstand outside my parents’ candy store in Brooklyn so I could get some fresh air. Growing up, I had numerous additions of the numerous  daily newspapers to peruse. Very handy, back in the day, before kitty litter was even a thing, and folks would have thought buying it ludicrous with all the newspapers in the house! Shredding newspapers daily to keep our cats comfy was a daily mindless habit. (in retrospect, the ink ran, making a mess!)

That said, along with the facts that, as an adult I worked for a magazine in Manhattan, and, as a news gatherer for a midwest paper, and, as well,  as an  editor at a weekly. For the 48 years years as Maplewood residents, we always had Newark newspapers delivered —  commercial kitty litter hadn’t become available.

 Even now, I have digital subscriptions to the WSJ and NYT ( have the papers delivered on the weekend) and  I will not vote for Biden (if he is actually still on the ballot by November). So much for polls!

I'm smiling at the fact that you have linked newspapers with their use pre-kitty litter. That said, I'm sincerely sad that Trump will be your party's choice and hoping that even though you won't vote for Biden you will skip voting for Trump. As I've expressed on this thread, I follow debates and interviews with both parties, as I have family and a couple of friends who voted for Trump. Not sure what they will do now. I had hoped that your party would have chosen Nikki Haley. As our country has been divided down the middle, I keep an eye on the person that I feel would be the best alternative to the Democratic nominee in case they win.

I hope you will at least consider sitting this one out. I honestly have a hard time understanding those who so dislike Biden that they are willing to vote for Trump. I also am baffled by the disdain Republicans have for VP Kamala Harris but that's another story.

I don't often post here but I do scan the discussions on occasion. 

DaveSchmidt said:

mtierney said:

I am posting the following WSJ article today — way too complicated doings — and the fact that I had to look up three words within. Can anyone find the words?

“Wrong.”

“Lie.”

“Inured.”

no cigar — not even close!

Morganna said:

I'm smiling at the fact that you have linked newspapers with their use pre-kitty litter. That said, I'm sincerely sad that Trump will be your party's choice and hoping that even though you won't vote for Biden you will skip voting for Trump. As I've expressed on this thread, I follow debates and interviews with both parties, as I have family and a couple of friends who voted for Trump. Not sure what they will do now. I had hoped that your party would have chosen Nikki Haley. As our country has been divided down the middle, I keep an eye on the person that I feel would be the best alternative to the Democratic nominee in case they win.

I hope you will at least consider sitting this one out. I honestly have a hard time understanding those who so dislike Biden that they are willing to vote for Trump. I also am baffled by the disdain Republicans have for VP Kamala Harris but that's another story.

I don't often post here but I do scan the discussions on occasion. 

 

Funny, you mention Nikki Haley, I would like her as a VP choice!

mtierney said:

no cigar — not even close!

Forgive me. It’s possible those three diluvian shards adumbrated my thoughts.

drummerboy said:

not when you deliberately ignore your experience and continually post lies and ignore multiple people telling you why they are lies.

I would think a person who repeatedly calls anyone who has a different take on a topic a liar would get a tad tiresome and very old, very quickly. Having one’s opinions set in concrete makes thinking outside the box occasionally impossible, I see

So much for a  brief, tiny hint of rapport not too long ago! 

I would have expected you to have been able to easily spot the three words I referred to in the WSJ article — but, then, you would had to actually read the post to do so! 

DaveSchmidt said:

Forgive me. It’s possible those three diluvian shards adumbrated my thoughts.

you missed one!