Science! (Herd Immunity)
terp said:
jamie said:
terp said:
ridski said:
I choose to wear a mask indoors (outside of my own home) because I respect other people's property and business. I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
Good for you, but that is a religious belief, not a position based on settled science.
This has nothing to do with mask wearing, do you read the things you post? It's about household secondary attack. Here's the conclusion of the study:
The findings of this study suggest that households are and will continue to be important venues for transmission, even where community transmission is reduced. Prevention strategies, such as increased mask-wearing at home, improved ventilation, voluntary isolation at external facilities, and targeted antiviral prophylaxis, should be further explored.
They is incorrect. From the link.
The secondary attack rate for symptomatic index cases was 18.0% (95% CI 14.2%-22.1%), and the rate of asymptomatic and presymptomatic index cases was 0.7% (95% CI 0%-4.9%), “although there were few studies in the latter group.” The asymptomatic/presymptomatic secondary attack rate is not statistically different from zero, and the confidence interval is technically 0.7 ± 4.2, resulting in a range of -3.5%-4.9%, but attack rates cannot be negative, so it is truncated at 0.Emphasis mine.
Huh?
terp said:
nohero said:
terp said:
ridski said:
I choose to wear a mask indoors (outside of my own home) because I respect other people's property and business. I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
Good for you, but that is a religious belief, not a position based on settled science.
"Libertarianism" is by far the most intolerant belief system and most impervious to logic.
LOL. You are completely and utterly intolerant of diversity of thought,
This is a very libertarian response to most arguments.
terp said:
nohero said:
"Libertarianism" is by far the most intolerant belief system and most impervious to logic.
LOL. You are completely and utterly intolerant of diversity of thought,
I'll admit to being not tolerant of diversity of "facts" and just made up claims that keep being relied on in the face of facts.
ml1 said:
And for anyone who thinks people in our area are being a bunch of irrationallly fearful sheep it bears pointing out that one out of every 500 NJ residents this year has been killed by the coronavirus. And that's not counting all those who continue to have lingering health effects. This is some real ****.
There are those fortunate souls who know *zero* people who died of, or who were otherwise victimized by, Covid-19. It still doesn't excuse being oblivious.
terp said:
dave said:
Here in the land of sheeple where everyone has a mask on, we get daily reports like this.
--
Press Conference by Dr. Chuang Shuk Kwan
December 23rd 2020
Updated at 1700
Dr. Chuang of Centre for Health Protection announced as of midnight last night there were (8302-8354)
53 newly confirmed cases in total.
There are 27 local cases with previous links.
There are 20 local cases with no previous links.
6 cases are imported
As of 4pm today there are over 40 preliminary cases.
28 patients are Male and 25 patients are Female
Ages of the patients range from 8 years old to 86 years oldHOSPITAL AUTHORITY (HA)
As of 9:00am on December 23rd 2020
Patients in hospital: 1026 in 22 hospitals and Asia-World Expo
Patients in critical condition: 66
Patients in serious condition: 60
Patients discharged:117
HA regrets to announce the death of #6691. He was a 77 year old male who passed earlier today at Tuen Mun HospitalIMPORTED CASES
Total Persons 6NEW VIRUS STRAIN DETECTED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM:
CHP labs have detected the new strain of the virus from the UK. Two students are have confirmed to have had this virus.
Patient number #7077 - He/she arrived on December 7th onboard CX 252 from London - This patient is still in hospital
This patient traveled with a few of his fellow students. Dr. Chuang said close contacts of this patients will be required to quarantine for an additional 7 days as it is possible that the incubation period for this strain is longer than 14 days.
Patient number #7631 - He/she arrived on December 13th onboard VS206 from London - This patient has been discharged but will be invited back to the hospital for further tests to make sure its safe for him/her to be out and about.*PATIENT ESCAPED FROM NORTH LANTAU HOSPITAL*
A 25 year old female patient who is a close contact of a positive patient complained of chest pain this morning at Penny’s Bay Quarantine Center. She was taken to North Lantau Hospital for observation. During her stay at North Lantau Hospital this morning, she managed to escape from the authorities. Dr. Chuang said her quarantine order at Penny’s Bay ends on December 24th. CHP and the Police are looking for her now.LOCAL CASES
CASES WITH PREVIOUS LINKS:
Total Persons 24
Clusters:
Glow Salon & Spa, 8th Floor Silver Fortune Plaza, 1 Wellington Street, Central, Hong Kong
New additional cases today: 1
There have been a total of 15 people related to this cluster now including close contacts.
Yata Shatin:
New additional cases today: 1
There have been a total of 26 people related to this cluster now including close contacts.
Billy Sir Professor (Singing School)
New Trend Centre, 104 King Fuk St, San Po Kong
New additional cases today: 2
There have been a total of 14 people related to this cluster now including close contacts.
Starlight Dance Club Cluster:
New additional cases today: 1
There have been a total of over 731 people related to this cluster now including close contacts.
Ping Tin Estate, Ping Shing House, Lam Tin:
There are 5 units that have been affected with 8 people testing positive. In addition there are several preliminary cases. CHP will be issuing a mandatory test notice.CASES WITH NO PREVIOUS LINKS:
Total Persons : 20It's funny, because prior to this pandemic the CDC recommended pretty much what the Great Barrington Declaration is recommending. But it strikes me that we threw all of that out and tried to mimic how the Chinese Communist Party handled it.
Also probably because the US didn't have Sars I in 2003, when 774 people died in Hong Kong (thus far we've had 132 deaths) .
terp said:
sprout said:
There may be multiple local reasons for spikes.
For example, NY and NJ are moving indoors due to weather, and spiking predictably with that.
Parkwood's Covid 19 closure occurring now, when diners were eating in the restaurant a few weeks ago, was more expected now than when most diners were eating at the tables set up outside in the summer and into the fall.
Floridians can still dine outside.
Explain California using this framework.
As stated at the top, the framework is "multiple local reasons". Real-world data cannot be analyzed like a randomized control trial, which are designed to make specific comparisons.
Here's a SCIENCE! explanation of why drawing conclusions from real-world data is so challenging, from the National Academy of Sciences:
Core Concept: The pandemic is prompting widespread use—and misuse—of real-world data
In particular, Pottegård says he is concerned with the large number of observational papers addressing efficacy of interventions in COVID-19 patients, “something that is inherently difficult to get right and as such is better left to randomized, controlled trials....”
"For better or worse", Girman adds, when it comes to the use of real-world data, “the pandemic has brought out a lot of good, bad, and ugly.”
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/45/27754
In other words, scientists can't even tell what treatments were working on patients based on the real-world data. And those have fewer variables to deal with than trying to figure out if there is a 0% risk of people catching Covid outdoors if not wearing a mask (which you seem to think), or if the risk is something above 0% (which outdoor mask wearers seem to think).
I do hope there is a 0% chance risk of catching Covid outdoors--- but since we don't have absolute proof of it, I wear a mask or keep my distance when there are others around outside.
I'm actually really sorry I checked in on this thread. I saw that it had 65 new posts. What a complete **** disappointment.
Anyway, I thought it might have had some revelations about the recent more infectious strain that has popped up. From what we were told today, it still isn't looking like it is more virulent (damaging to health), only more easily spread. Based on how long it has been around and the free travel between us and the UK, there are very high odds it is present here. Has been for a while perhaps. We just weren't looking for it.
I wish some of you could sit in with me on a tracing shift. Or today, when I was delivering food to isolated/quarantined people all over Newark's north ward. All this crap here might come into better perspective.
Wear a mask. Even if it isn't guaranteed, it reduces the viral mass floating around.
Our data indicate that homes, particularly smaller apartments with only a single bathroom and kitchen, are at a much higher risk of transmission. Wearing masks inside your own home truly sucks as a proposition but it can reduce your chances of spreading it/contracting it if you must be in the same household as a COVID-positive person.
BTW, breastfeeding is tricky. Breast milk hasn't been shown to have a large viral load but... BUT mother and infant are in very close contact for a prolonged period of time and the risk of the COVID-positive mother passing it on is high. Using formula instead of breast milk makes little difference, other than the person who can deliver it. Even then, the mother could pump and store her milk for a non-COVID-positive person to give to the baby.
So I’ve tried very hard to calmly and objectively follow all the previous discussion. It hasn’t been easy to follow (for lots of reasons), but it seems to me the most obvious and basic premise - which has been stated and disparaged several times - has not got through.
Let me rephrase, from a purely subjective perspective:
I have absolutely no immunity left to anything, I’m relying on meds to make my bone marrow boost production of the teeny starter cells that’ll turn into useful neutrophils etc in time for my next chemo, when they’re all killed again. I’m also taking specific antihistamines so that random ‘harmless’ things don’t turn into nasty chronic infections. I’m limiting social interactions for obvious reasons. It’s not just covid I’m worried about; we’ve got measles, TB, various herpes, flus and other things flying around. I can’t even afford a sniffle.
But I have to shop, I have to attend medical appointments, I have to exercise. I wear a mask, and I sanitise my hands constantly.
Other people walking around me clear their throats, cough, sneeze, burp etc to the side or behind them not caring who’s walking there, into that floating miasma. They laugh, yell, ride skateboards etc, breathing heavily as they dodge around me - some days I’m barely walking a straight line, cringing. At least the mask signifies that I need space and they should be aware even if it’s late.
A hundred years ago, polite people promenaded without raising their voices or wildly gesticulating their hands in others’ faces. This accorded sufficient pathway space in genteel places, where folks didn’t spit in public. We need the same space now.
what’s hard about being considerate??
And for those who don't believe 1 in 500 New Jerseyans have died of coronavirus, here is the math. Nearly 9 million people live in NJ and over 18,000 have died from COVID-19.
And we're currently losing about another 100 people each day.
terp said:
ridski said:
I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
Good for you, but that is a religious belief, not a position based on settled science.
Terp -- There is evidence of outdoor transmission, so your sense of 0% risk may be incorrect:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/09/10/2020.09.04.20188417.1.full.pdf
[ETA]: And your link to "settled science" doesn't actually say what you think it says. The confidence interval indicates there are too few studies to make a determination of the risk of asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread. The CI indicates it is probably somewhere between 0%-5% risk, but there are too few studies to draw a conclusion of what that risk is.
joanne said:
So I’ve tried very hard to calmly and objectively follow all the previous discussion. It hasn’t been easy to follow (for lots of reasons), but it seems to me the most obvious and basic premise - which has been stated and disparaged several times - has not got through.
Let me rephrase, from a purely subjective perspective:I have absolutely no immunity left to anything, I’m relying on meds to make my bone marrow boost production of the teeny starter cells that’ll turn into useful neutrophils etc in time for my next chemo, when they’re all killed again. I’m also taking specific antihistamines so that random ‘harmless’ things don’t turn into nasty chronic infections. I’m limiting social interactions for obvious reasons. It’s not just covid I’m worried about; we’ve got measles, TB, various herpes, flus and other things flying around. I can’t even afford a sniffle.
But I have shop, I have to attend medical appointments, I have to exercise. I wear a mask, and I sanitise my hands constantly.Other people walking around me clear their throats, cough, sneeze, burp etc to the side or behind them not caring who’s walking there, into that floating miasma. They laugh, yell, ride skateboards etc, breathing heavily as they dodge around me - some days I’m barely walking a straight line, cringing. At least the mask signifies that I need space and they should be aware even if it’s late.
A hundred years ago, polite people promenaded without raising their voices or wildly gesticulating their hands in others’ faces. This accorded sufficient pathway space in genteel places, where folks didn’t spit in public. We need the same space now.
what’s hard about being considerate??
it's not hard, but a lot of people equate asking for some consideration with taking away their "freedom". It's just like the people complaining about the "oppression" of "political correctness" which similarly is really just about being considerate of other people's feelings and trying to understand their experiences.
While most of us would consider that our "freedom" ends at the point at which it infringes on you, there are many who believe their personal "freedom" trumps any and all responsibility to other people.
It's a shame, but it's a bill of goods sold mainly by the wealthy and powerful as a justification for doing whatever they please. And a lot of regular folks have bought what those people are selling.
sprout said:
Terp -- There is evidence of outdoor transmission, so your sense of 0% risk may be incorrect:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/09/10/2020.09.04.20188417.1.full.pdf
at this point we don't really know anything for sure about the virus transmission. So why not err on the side of caution? Particularly if it's such a minor inconvenience such as wearing a mask or keeping distance.
All I know is that if I contracted the virus and I thought I may have passed it to other people because I refused to follow public health guidelines I'd feel pretty terrible.
terp said:
Is there a study that shows you need to stay far away from others outdoors? What study supports the safety regimen of driving down my little street at 50 MPH with a mask on?
What we're describing is irrational fear. To an extent, I understand. We are bombarded with worst case scenarios. But, that doesn't make it science.
Some fellow-travelers. “You might catch the hope virus” pic.twitter.com/aOXQpzarUp
I don’t particularly want to walk outside my house and see naked people of all ages doing what they please, as they please. I’m glad we have an agreement to wear some clothing. I’m glad we use appropriate restrooms (at home or public conveniences) rather than odd spots in the street.
I’m not a prude, just tired and focused on somewhat (personally) larger matters like, can I make it to the loo on time? Can I draw a breath? Can I still be me, with a smile? We live in large groups of active people, and that social cohesion depends on unspoken contracts & diplomacy. Such contracts long ago included personal space 
(I’m now quoting my high school History & Geography teacher, Mrs Mulligan)
ml1 said:
it's not hard, but a lot of people equate asking for some consideration with taking away their "freedom". It's just like the people complaining about the "oppression" of "political correctness" which similarly is really just about being considerate of other people's feelings and trying to understand their experiences.
While most of us would consider that our "freedom" ends at the point at which it infringes on you, there are many who believe their personal "freedom" trumps any and all responsibility to other people.
It's a shame, but it's a bill of goods sold mainly by the wealthy and powerful as a justification for doing whatever they please. And a lot of regular folks have bought what those people are selling.
Terp, I commend you. You have them all rattled and nary one cognitive rebuttal.....Thank you and well done!!
If we had any idea of what Terp's point or scientific facts were - we might have an easier time to rebut. His stance is way more political then based in any science. Perhaps you could elucidate his main point?
Let's start by where the CDC embraced the Barrington Declaration.
Despite the alarming number of cases, have you noticed that the infection rate is low? It's been under the magic number 1 in NJ for about a week or more. And its been floating just above or below 1 in all states during the recent surge. It was as high a 2.5 in NJ during the first wave. Thoughts?
ramsraymond72 said:
Terp, I commend you. You have them all rattled and nary one cognitive rebuttal.....Thank you and well done!!
this is completely false. But nice try.
bub said:
Despite the alarming number of cases, have you noticed that the infection rate is low? It's been under the magic number 1 in NJ for about a week or more. And its been floating just above or below 1 in all states during the recent surge. It was as high a 2.5 in NJ during the first wave. Thoughts?
this is we are required to give the caveat that correlation doesn't indicate causation. But the fact that the transmission rate is currently less than half what is was at the beginning of the pandemic suggests the social distancing regulations are having an effect.
ml1 said:
ramsraymond72 said:
Terp, I commend you. You have them all rattled and nary one cognitive rebuttal.....Thank you and well done!!
this is completely false. But nice try.
Hey, show a little respect. https://maplewood.worldwebs.com/forums/discussion/how-far-will-trump-go-child-abuse-edition?page=next&limit=30#discussion-replies-3409084
and then there's this. A lot of it sounds familiar.
ml1 said:
and then there's this. A lot of it sounds familiar.
2 notorious a-holes
A rant about black and brown people from Eric Clapton in the 70s is the reason we had a movement in the UK called Rock Against Racism.
When Van Morrison was recording Astral Weeks, he was such a dick to his session musicians that they would wipe their arses with his harmonicas in the morning before he showed up to the studio.
ridski said:
When Van Morrison was recording Astral Weeks, he was such a dick to his session musicians that they would wipe their arses with his harmonicas in the morning before he showed up to the studio.
what a nice Christmas story.
ridski said:
When Van Morrison was recording Astral Weeks, he was such a dick to his session musicians that they would wipe their arses with his harmonicas in the morning before he showed up to the studio.
Slim Slow Sliders.
terp,
regarding your opposition to the term "death cult" - what would you call a group of people who are willing to let 2 million people die while trying to achieve a type of herd immunity which has never been achieved before, and is, therefore, more than likely to fail?
Pro-life?
or simply stupid?
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And for anyone who thinks people in our area are being a bunch of irrationallly fearful sheep it bears pointing out that one out of every 500 NJ residents this year has been killed by the coronavirus. And that's not counting all those who continue to have lingering health effects. This is some real ****.