I choose to wear a mask indoors (outside of my own home) because I respect other people's property and business. I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
"Libertarianism" is by far the most intolerant belief system and most impervious to logic.
Yet, as I said, my reasons for choosing to wear a mask is libertarianism in action. I have every right to walk around my own property sneezing and coughing, but when it violates the private property rights of others, I no longer have that right. Likewise, just like I can swing my arms around as much as I want, if I hit someone in the face I have violated their right not to be hit, and virus-spreading is no different.
It's funny, because prior to this pandemic the CDC recommended pretty much what the Great Barrington Declaration is recommending. But it strikes me that we threw all of that out and tried to mimic how the Chinese Communist Party handled it.
link?
eta: I love some of the signatures in the Barrington Declaration: Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums," as well as “18 self-declared homeopaths listed as medical practitioners
I choose to wear a mask indoors (outside of my own home) because I respect other people's property and business. I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
"We found significantly higher secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases, although less data were available on the latter. The lack of substantial transmission from observed asymptomatic index cases is notable. However, presymptomatic transmission does occur, with some studies reporting the timing of peak infectiousness at approximately the period of symptom onset."
So if you have covid, and know exactly know when your symptoms will begin, then per the studies they looked at you're not at peak infectiousness prior to then. Of course, this begs the question of how do you know when your symptoms will begin? Let's say you decide to take a walk, maskless, and are feeling fine at the beginning -- will you be free of symptoms half an hour later?
Given that you can't possibly know the answer to that, choosing to wear a mask to reduce potential spread of your virus seems like a rational choice. Indeed, insisting that you can know whether or not you will show symptoms, and when, strikes me as a far more faith-based approach.
While we wait for herd immunity for the virus, we may as well celebrate herd immunity for other communicable diseases like the the mumps, polio, measles, smallpox....Oh wait, the only immunity we have it based on vaccines. With most ailments, including communicable ones, not everyone picks up the ailment. We've all seen couples, where one spouse gets the virus and the other doesn't. Due to the sever potential problems with having the German measles when pregnant, I, along with every other little girl prior to 1970 when the rubella vaccine was released, was taken to visit other children with the German measles with the hope I'd pick it up. I didn't. I had at least a dozen exposures. I did get it when I was 16. Point being not everyone gets the ailments, but that is not herd immunity it is both individual, temporal immunity plus luck.
"We found significantly higher secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases, although less data were available on the latter. The lack of substantial transmission from observed asymptomatic index cases is notable. However, presymptomatic transmission does occur, with some studies reporting the timing of peak infectiousness at approximately the period of symptom onset."
So if you have covid, and know exactly know when your symptoms will begin, then per the studies they looked at you're not at peak infectiousness prior to then. Of course, this begs the question of how do you know when your symptoms will begin? Let's say you decide to take a walk, maskless, and are feeling fine at the beginning -- will you be free of symptoms half an hour later?
Given that you can't possibly know the answer to that, choosing to wear a mask to reduce potential spread of your virus seems like a rational choice. Indeed, insisting that you can know whether or not you will show symptoms, and when, strikes me as a far more faith-based approach.
because a person without symptoms may be already infected and contagious, it's not irrational for people to give someone a wide berth, even outdoors, if that person isn't wearing a face covering. There's no way for anyone to know what an infected person's viral load is, and how much virus the person is shedding. While it's an overreaction to run into the woods to escape a person in the reservation without a face covering, it does make sense to move past that person pretty quickly, and give them extra space.
and another rational response (which I believe someone already mentioned) is that it's entirely reasonable to assume someone ignoring the face coverings rule in a park or other public place may also be someone who is ignoring other public health guidelines. It's entirely rational to assume the people out in public without face coverings might be generally taking more risks than the people who are wearing masks.
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
Is it worth pointing out that it's behavior -- masking, social distancing, washing hands -- that matters, and that this is a separate question from what the best way to encourage such behavior is? Or has that been pointed out enough on this thread, and if that distinction's still being ignored then there's probably not a real desire to engage here?
This assumes efficacy. Are you claiming that Florida has better compliance with the behaviors being suggested than California?
If I were an epidemiologist investigating these outbreaks, behavior is certainly one thing I'd look closely at. Ten months in, pandemic fatigue is a real thing, and I'd expect the correlation between public health pronouncements and actual behavior on the ground is looser than it was in March (though I suppose that would be more the realm of a political scientist or sociologist to look into).
One interesting thing to look at is the cases per million, here comparing FL and CA (data from Covid Tracking Project -- hopefully this embed works). You can see how CA's spike in the spring was much higher than Floridas, but then in the fall it's cases per million was lower than Florida's, and now it's much higher. Asking why it's so high now is a good question, but you should also be asking why it dropped so low in the fall.
One notable aspect of California's current explosion in cases is that it's very regional, not statewide. Central and southern CA are faring much worse. I'd be cautious in going too far out on a limb here without much more data, but it would not surprise me to find that people in central CA are less likely to be masking and social distancing. Nor would I be surprised to find that in, say, Orange County, where the sheriff seemed rather unsupportive of public measures.
Is behavior the sole driver of the surge? Probably not -- there's also a good deal of chance involved in the spread of the virus, as we've seen. But, when the dice come up wrong in your community, all the reliable evidence we have indicates that behavior makes a big difference.
For example, NY and NJ are moving indoors due to weather, and spiking predictably with that.
Parkwood's Covid 19 closure occurring now, when diners were eating in the restaurant a few weeks ago, was more expected now than when most diners were eating at the tables set up outside in the summer and into the fall.
It's funny, because prior to this pandemic the CDC recommended pretty much what the Great Barrington Declaration is recommending. But it strikes me that we threw all of that out and tried to mimic how the Chinese Communist Party handled it.
link?
eta: I love some of the signatures in the Barrington Declaration: Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename and Dr. Johnny Bananas, who listed himself as a "Dr of Hard Sums," as well as “18 self-declared homeopaths listed as medical practitioners
Nobody was recommending lockdowns or quarantines of healthy people. I would read through the whole thread below.
one of the fascinating aspects of the response to covid is the manner in which all past knowledge and standing guidance regarding lockdowns and quarantines got tossed out the window and replaced with new, contradictory doctrine with no scientific backing. pic.twitter.com/EplwYQTmL6
It's funny, because prior to this pandemic the CDC recommended pretty much what the Great Barrington Declaration is recommending. But it strikes me that we threw all of that out and tried to mimic how the Chinese Communist Party handled it.
Maybe you missed my post, in your zeal to make some bullsh*t argument about COMMUNISM!!!!!
Here in the land of sheeple where everyone has a mask on, we get daily reports like this. ...
We have a niece who lives in Taiwan, and it's the same comparison with the United States.
The fact is that just about everyone in this thread dove head first into authoritarian waters. This is what oppressive regimes are built upon. Not only are people ok with it, they lash out at anyone who questions the direction and seem to ask for more.
For example, NY and NJ are moving indoors due to weather, and spiking predictably with that.
Parkwood's Covid 19 closure occurring now, when diners were eating in the restaurant a few weeks ago, was more expected now than when most diners were eating at the tables set up outside in the summer and into the fall.
If I were an epidemiologist investigating these outbreaks, behavior is certainly one thing I'd look closely at. Ten months in, pandemic fatigue is a real thing, and I'd expect the correlation between public health pronouncements and actual behavior on the ground is looser than it was in March (though I suppose that would be more the realm of a political scientist or sociologist to look into).
One interesting thing to look at is the cases per million, here comparing FL and CA (data from Covid Tracking Project -- hopefully this embed works). You can see how CA's spike in the spring was much higher than Floridas, but then in the fall it's cases per million was lower than Florida's, and now it's much higher. Asking why it's so high now is a good question, but you should also be asking why it dropped so low in the fall.
One notable aspect of California's current explosion in cases is that it's very regional, not statewide. Central and southern CA are faring much worse. I'd be cautious in going too far out on a limb here without much more data, but it would not surprise me to find that people in central CA are less likely to be masking and social distancing. Nor would I be surprised to find that in, say, Orange County, where the sheriff seemed rather unsupportive of public measures.
Is behavior the sole driver of the surge? Probably not -- there's also a good deal of chance involved in the spread of the virus, as we've seen. But, when the dice come up wrong in your community, all the reliable evidence we have indicates that behavior makes a big difference.
the NYTimes occasionally posts studies looking at anonymized cell phone data to show how much people are traveling and gathering. And recent spikes in coronavirus after Thanksgiving were entirely predictable because it was clear people were traveling and gathering more than they had in months. The spikes in infection are NOT proof that mandates to try to keep people from social distancing don't work. It's actually evidence that when people let their guards down and stop wearing masks, and gathering in large groups indoors that the spikes occur.
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
Is it worth pointing out that it's behavior -- masking, social distancing, washing hands -- that matters, and that this is a separate question from what the best way to encourage such behavior is? Or has that been pointed out enough on this thread, and if that distinction's still being ignored then there's probably not a real desire to engage here?
This assumes efficacy. Are you claiming that Florida has better compliance with the behaviors being suggested than California?
If I were an epidemiologist investigating these outbreaks, behavior is certainly one thing I'd look closely at. Ten months in, pandemic fatigue is a real thing, and I'd expect the correlation between public health pronouncements and actual behavior on the ground is looser than it was in March (though I suppose that would be more the realm of a political scientist or sociologist to look into).
One interesting thing to look at is the cases per million, here comparing FL and CA (data from Covid Tracking Project -- hopefully this embed works). You can see how CA's spike in the spring was much higher than Floridas, but then in the fall it's cases per million was lower than Florida's, and now it's much higher. Asking why it's so high now is a good question, but you should also be asking why it dropped so low in the fall.
One notable aspect of California's current explosion in cases is that it's very regional, not statewide. Central and southern CA are faring much worse. I'd be cautious in going too far out on a limb here without much more data, but it would not surprise me to find that people in central CA are less likely to be masking and social distancing. Nor would I be surprised to find that in, say, Orange County, where the sheriff seemed rather unsupportive of public measures.
Is behavior the sole driver of the surge? Probably not -- there's also a good deal of chance involved in the spread of the virus, as we've seen. But, when the dice come up wrong in your community, all the reliable evidence we have indicates that behavior makes a big difference.
What evidence? You say that flippantly, but I don't see it. California is locked down pretty severely...is this based on a hunch?
Bar owner in Los Angeles CA is livid to see that mayor Garcetti has approved an outdoor dining area for a movie company directly across from her outdoor dining area (which was shut down) pic.twitter.com/jkUP2CWg35
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
Is it worth pointing out that it's behavior -- masking, social distancing, washing hands -- that matters, and that this is a separate question from what the best way to encourage such behavior is? Or has that been pointed out enough on this thread, and if that distinction's still being ignored then there's probably not a real desire to engage here?
This assumes efficacy. Are you claiming that Florida has better compliance with the behaviors being suggested than California?
If I were an epidemiologist investigating these outbreaks, behavior is certainly one thing I'd look closely at. Ten months in, pandemic fatigue is a real thing, and I'd expect the correlation between public health pronouncements and actual behavior on the ground is looser than it was in March (though I suppose that would be more the realm of a political scientist or sociologist to look into).
One interesting thing to look at is the cases per million, here comparing FL and CA (data from Covid Tracking Project -- hopefully this embed works). You can see how CA's spike in the spring was much higher than Floridas, but then in the fall it's cases per million was lower than Florida's, and now it's much higher. Asking why it's so high now is a good question, but you should also be asking why it dropped so low in the fall.
One notable aspect of California's current explosion in cases is that it's very regional, not statewide. Central and southern CA are faring much worse. I'd be cautious in going too far out on a limb here without much more data, but it would not surprise me to find that people in central CA are less likely to be masking and social distancing. Nor would I be surprised to find that in, say, Orange County, where the sheriff seemed rather unsupportive of public measures.
Is behavior the sole driver of the surge? Probably not -- there's also a good deal of chance involved in the spread of the virus, as we've seen. But, when the dice come up wrong in your community, all the reliable evidence we have indicates that behavior makes a big difference.
What evidence? You say that flippantly, but I don't see it. California is locked down pretty severely...is this based on a hunch?
Bar owner in Los Angeles CA is livid to see that mayor Garcetti has approved an outdoor dining area for a movie company directly across from her outdoor dining area (which was shut down) pic.twitter.com/jkUP2CWg35
— Jake Coco
maybe we need a common definition of "lockdown." To me, that means the closing of all businesses except the most vital, and confining people to their homes. That's what was done in places like Wuhan, where people couldn't even leave to buy groceries. Everything was delivered.
to my knowledge no place in the U.S. is requiring people to confine strictly to their homes at this time. But I suppose "public health restrictions" isn't as scary sounding as "lockdown."
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.
Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.
I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?
See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.
Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm
Is it worth pointing out that it's behavior -- masking, social distancing, washing hands -- that matters, and that this is a separate question from what the best way to encourage such behavior is? Or has that been pointed out enough on this thread, and if that distinction's still being ignored then there's probably not a real desire to engage here?
This assumes efficacy. Are you claiming that Florida has better compliance with the behaviors being suggested than California?
If I were an epidemiologist investigating these outbreaks, behavior is certainly one thing I'd look closely at. Ten months in, pandemic fatigue is a real thing, and I'd expect the correlation between public health pronouncements and actual behavior on the ground is looser than it was in March (though I suppose that would be more the realm of a political scientist or sociologist to look into).
One interesting thing to look at is the cases per million, here comparing FL and CA (data from Covid Tracking Project -- hopefully this embed works). You can see how CA's spike in the spring was much higher than Floridas, but then in the fall it's cases per million was lower than Florida's, and now it's much higher. Asking why it's so high now is a good question, but you should also be asking why it dropped so low in the fall.
One notable aspect of California's current explosion in cases is that it's very regional, not statewide. Central and southern CA are faring much worse. I'd be cautious in going too far out on a limb here without much more data, but it would not surprise me to find that people in central CA are less likely to be masking and social distancing. Nor would I be surprised to find that in, say, Orange County, where the sheriff seemed rather unsupportive of public measures.
Is behavior the sole driver of the surge? Probably not -- there's also a good deal of chance involved in the spread of the virus, as we've seen. But, when the dice come up wrong in your community, all the reliable evidence we have indicates that behavior makes a big difference.
What evidence? You say that flippantly, but I don't see it. California is locked down pretty severely...is this based on a hunch?
Bar owner in Los Angeles CA is livid to see that mayor Garcetti has approved an outdoor dining area for a movie company directly across from her outdoor dining area (which was shut down) pic.twitter.com/jkUP2CWg35
— Jake Coco
You're going to have to clarify for this post for me. "California is locked down pretty severely" seems in tension with an example of inconsistently allowing some outdoor dining but not others. Nor do I really see how this relates to trying to understand if people are actually practicing social distancing, masking, and hand washing.
You're going to have to clarify for this post for me. "California is locked down pretty severely" seems in tension with an example of inconsistently allowing some outdoor dining but not others. Nor do I really see how this relates to trying to understand if people are actually practicing social distancing, masking, and hand washing.
I suppose one could be questioning why a movie studio is being allowed to make films during a pandemic. But if the studio is open, people working there need to eat. So better to have an outside dining area.
It's funny, because prior to this pandemic the CDC recommended pretty much what the Great Barrington Declaration is recommending. But it strikes me that we threw all of that out and tried to mimic how the Chinese Communist Party handled it.
Maybe you missed my post, in your zeal to make some bullsh*t argument about COMMUNISM!!!!!
Here in the land of sheeple where everyone has a mask on, we get daily reports like this. ...
We have a niece who lives in Taiwan, and it's the same comparison with the United States.
The fact is that just about everyone in this thread dove head first into authoritarian waters. This is what oppressive regimes are built upon. Not only are people ok with it, they lash out at anyone who questions the direction and seem to ask for more.
You literally ignored my post, and insist that your observation is based on facts - which it isn't.
You're going to have to clarify for this post for me. "California is locked down pretty severely" seems in tension with an example of inconsistently allowing some outdoor dining but not others. Nor do I really see how this relates to trying to understand if people are actually practicing social distancing, masking, and hand washing.
I suppose one could be questioning why a movie studio is being allowed to make films during a pandemic. But if the studio is open, people working there need to eat. So better to have an outside dining area.
It's my understanding that film making is done "in a bubble", and that there are very strict safety requirements (See any recent, viral Tom Cruise yelling). People working "in a bubble" and eating "in a bubble" can't be compared to keeping outdoor dining open where customers aren't similarly regulated.
Here's a new word I learned: Cognogen—Cog-no-gen: A belief that contributes to psychological or physical pathology*The term cognogen is a neologism. We are all familiar with the idea of diseases being caused by bacteria and viruses. We know that infectious disease can be transmitted person to person and across the population. However, misguided beliefs can be as dangerous and transmissible as a bacteria and virus!
That is not a good article. It's a hit piece. Thinking for yourself could give oxygen to fringe groups. Please.
That's seriously your rebuttal?
When it comes to a global pandemic - who would be the smart group to listen to?
12,000 signatures gathered by the American Institute for Econmic Research
or
The Infectious Diseases Society of America’s 12,000 front-line infectious diseases scientists, physicians and public health experts.
When you have these institutions funded by government there's a phenomenon that occurs. If you swim with the status quo tide you will get your neck stroked. If you swim against the tide you will get your neck choked(and they will silence you). Which way do the vast majority swim?
The signatures are evidence of nothing. Its just a classic call to authority.
I choose to wear a mask indoors (outside of my own home) because I respect other people's property and business. I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
I choose to wear a mask indoors (outside of my own home) because I respect other people's property and business. I choose to put on a mask outside when I encounter another person because my right to spread viruses ends at another person's face.
This has nothing to do with mask wearing, do you read the things you post? It's about household secondary attack. Here's the conclusion of the study:
The findings of this study suggest that households are and will continue to be important venues for transmission, even where community transmission is reduced. Prevention strategies, such as increased mask-wearing at home, improved ventilation, voluntary isolation at external facilities, and targeted antiviral prophylaxis, should be further explored.
They is incorrect. From the link.
The secondary attack rate for symptomatic index cases was 18.0% (95% CI 14.2%-22.1%), and the rate of asymptomatic and presymptomatic index cases was 0.7% (95% CI 0%-4.9%), “although there were few studies in the latter group.” The asymptomatic/presymptomatic secondary attack rate is not statistically different from zero, and the confidence interval is technically 0.7 ± 4.2, resulting in a range of -3.5%-4.9%, but attack rates cannot be negative, so it is truncated at 0.
You're going to have to clarify for this post for me. "California is locked down pretty severely" seems in tension with an example of inconsistently allowing some outdoor dining but not others. Nor do I really see how this relates to trying to understand if people are actually practicing social distancing, masking, and hand washing.
I suppose one could be questioning why a movie studio is being allowed to make films during a pandemic. But if the studio is open, people working there need to eat. So better to have an outside dining area.
The thing is that if you are well connected or in the political sphere these rules don't seem to apply. These rules are just for the proles. There are many many examples of this. It makes you wonder if the people writing and enforcing the rules even believe they work.
Well if this thread wasn't called "Science!" I think some valid criticisms points could be made pointing out that governing authorities are not strictly following the biological science, and are instead balancing that against political and economic considerations. And we could have a debate as to whether they're getting that balance correctly or not. But, that all assumes as table stakes actual agreement on the basic science.
For instance, purely following the biological science, we'd expect it more likely that elementary schools be open and restaurants closed, but in practice this is generally the reverse for a host of reasons -- public schools are a lot easier to close than private businesses, closing businesses has a more immediate and direct economic impact (especially absent robust financial aid to offset the closings), etc. For the record, I'm pretty wishy-washy myself on if elementary schools should be open, as the data around transmission here I've seen is mixed, and there's good arguments both ways. I'm glad that, for now, I don't have to make that choice as we're still fully remote in W.O, though next month we're supposed to start hybrid, so we'll see.
Nohero and I might, for instance, have a debate on this, as from his posts I believe he's much more opposed to opening in-person learning and, IIRC, has I think a spouse or other family member who's a teacher? So I'd learn something from such an exchange, not being a teacher or being close to a teacher myself. But because we'd both be going starting from the baseline of understanding how the virus spreads, it'd actually be a productive discussion.
I'm less inclined to get into a discussion on the efficacy of mask mandates with someone like terp who disagrees that social distancing and masks are effective, as that's a much harder discussion to be productive on. How can you talk about if a mandate is "working" if you don't even agree that the goal -- changing behavior so people wear masks and keep their distance -- is the right goal? In the absence of such common understanding, it's more likely to devolve into unproductive claims about "freedom" and "selfishness" and other abstract, unresolvable labeling.
Anyway, to that point I had been intending to organize a better post around the data for masks, but that's a bit more work than I've had time for today and I plan on taking an MOL break over the holiday and into the weekend, so that'll have to wait. I'm sure this thread will still be here then.
The thing is that if you are well connected or in the political sphere these rules don't seem to apply. These rules are just for the proles. There are many many examples of this. It makes you wonder if the people writing and enforcing the rules even believe they work.
I think nohero did a good job of pointing out the difference between the risks on a movie set versus a restaurant.
Yet, as I said, my reasons for choosing to wear a mask is libertarianism in action. I have every right to walk around my own property sneezing and coughing, but when it violates the private property rights of others, I no longer have that right. Likewise, just like I can swing my arms around as much as I want, if I hit someone in the face I have violated their right not to be hit, and virus-spreading is no different.