@bikefixed

Just wanted to say the info you provided on what can impact COVID severity/mortality is fascinating.

nohero said:

nohero said:

Meanwhile, New York's "Young Republicans" had a little "culling the herd" event this week.  

Young Republicans Stage Secret Gala, Ignoring Virus Concerns

 Follow-up, with some appropriate reaction from our governor - 

 hmm. did someone say death cult?

sprout said:

@bikefixed

Just wanted to say the info you provided on what can impact COVID severity/mortality is fascinating.

 Thank you so much. Sad though.

the pandemic is at its height today in the U.S. and this was the rally Trump held.  No distancing, no masks.  I'm not going to apologize for calling this a death cult.  They are all eager and willing to die to please Dear Leader.

And then there's this -- earlier this week the Trumps held a holiday party at the White House. And it looked like this: 

Here in NJ and nearby states, as we suffered through the early months of the pandemic and lost people to the virus, Republicans in other parts of the country mocked us and said it was a "Democrat state" problem.  They still mock the face coverings and social distancing that we keep utilizing to cut down the spread.  

And we WILL be expected to have sympathy for them now.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem literally sacrificed her own grandmother for a chance to be President of the United States.  

Opinion | Covid-19 Came for the Dakotas - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Just before Thanksgiving, Noem announced the passing of her 98-year-old grandmother, one of 13 residents of a South Dakota nursing home who died in a two-week period. The home’s administrator told The Daily Beast that the other 12 residents, along with many of the nursing home’s workers, had tested positive for the coronavirus, but not Noem’s grandmother. (Hmmm …) While Noem publicly mourned her lost family member, she drew no particular attention to Covid-19’s rampage among her grandmother’s companions.

I get the sense that Noem has presidential aspirations (though she has denied that). If she ever presses the accelerator on those, please remember this savage season, and please remember her damning indifference to it.

It seems as if the Swedish Experiment has reached its end. The steps taken to save the economy by killing a lot of people have gone bad:

In an emotional televised address on Nov. 22, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven pleaded with Swedes to cancel all nonessential meetings and announced a ban on gatherings of more than eight people, which triggered the closure of cinemas and other entertainment venues. Starting Monday, high schools will be closed.

“Authorities chose a strategy totally different to the rest of Europe, and because of it the country has suffered a lot in the first wave,” said Piotr Nowak, a physician working with Covid-19 patients at the Karolinska University Hospital in Stockholm. “We have no idea how they failed to predict the second wave.”

Last week Sweden’s total coronavirus death count crossed 7,000. Neighboring Denmark, Finland and Norway, all similar-sized countries, have recorded since the start of the pandemic 878, 415 and 354 deaths respectively. For the first time since World War II, Sweden’s neighbors have closed their borders with the country.

And those folks died in service of an economy that is cratering:

Meanwhile, Sweden’s laissez-faire pandemic strategy has failed to deliver the economic benefits its proponents had predicted. In the first half of the year, Sweden’s gross domestic product fell by 8.5% and unemployment is projected to rise to nearly 10% in the beginning of 2021, according to the central bank and several economic institutes.

Businesses such as restaurants, hotels and retail outfits are facing a wave of closures; unlike in the rest of Europe, where governments coupled restrictions with generous stimulus, Swedish authorities have offered comparatively less support to businesses since they didn’t impose closures.

“This is worse than a lockdown and it has been a catastrophic year for everyone in the business: they haven’t closed us so they don’t give us any substantial support, yet they say to people ‘don’t go to restaurants’,” said Jonas Hamlund, who was forced to close one of his two restaurants in the coastal city of Sundsvall, laying off 30 people.

Fear of the virus and the government’s advice to avoid social interactions have weighed on domestic demand, damaging business and investor confidence, said Lars Calmfors, an economist and member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Hold tight, stay safe, wait for the vaccine.

I don’t recommend holding your breath for the Great Barrington Retraction. 

It used to annoy me greatly that the anti-abortion folks called themselves "Pro-Life" because to my thinking no one was "Pro-Death" or "Anti-Life". 

Then along came the "herd immunity" crowd. 

STANV said:

It used to annoy me greatly that the anti-abortion folks called themselves "Pro-Life" because to my thinking no one was "Pro-Death" or "Anti-Life". 

Then along came the "herd immunity" crowd. 

 The crowd that A) doesn't really seem to understand what "herd immunity" is all about and B) seems (ironically) to be a lot of the same people who claim to be "Pro-Life".

I just saw this NYT article which discusses the pros and cons of achieving immunity via the infection vs via a vaccine. (As mentioned in an earlier post, either can lead to 'herd immunity' despite implications to the contrary.) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html?referringSource=articleShare

sac said:

I just saw this NYT article which discusses the pros and cons of achieving immunity via the infection vs via a vaccine. (As mentioned in an earlier post, either can lead to 'herd immunity' despite implications to the contrary.) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html?referringSource=articleShare

 I haven't read the piece, but has herd immunity ever been achieved naturally?

drummerboy said:

 I haven't read the piece, but has herd immunity ever been achieved naturally?

 Yes, among the survivors.

drummerboy said:

 I haven't read the piece, but has herd immunity ever been achieved naturally?

 I've heard theories that the Spanish Flu eventually went away because there were not enough hosts left who had not been exposed to the virus.

drummerboy said:

sac said:

I just saw this NYT article which discusses the pros and cons of achieving immunity via the infection vs via a vaccine. (As mentioned in an earlier post, either can lead to 'herd immunity' despite implications to the contrary.) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/05/health/covid-natural-immunity.html?referringSource=articleShare

 I haven't read the piece, but has herd immunity ever been achieved naturally?

 I don't know, but I'm sure that natural immunity among some portion of the population can combine with vaccine immunity to achieve that goal.  The pros/cons in the article were more about individual immunity.

sprout said:

terp said:

And to be clear, I wear a mask when I go to stores etc.  I mostly do it to make people around me comfortable.  I do not think it is nearly as important outside.  I brought my dog to the reservation and was walking her through the trails in the woods.  A few people gave me the hairy eyeball because I wasn't wearing a mask.  One family and their dog actually walked off the trail and into the woods to avoid me.  Now where is the science to back that up?.

The science is that humans make risk/benefit calculations all the time.  A person who puts on a mask for the 10 seconds of an approach-and-walk-past signals to others that they are taking precautions against catching COVID-19, so are quickly assessed by the person about to walk past as both lower risk of having the virus, and a lower risk of transmitting it through their mask if they do have it.

The off-trail woods walkers have correctly quickly assessed you as having more tolerance for COVID-19 risk, which makes you a higher risk person to breathe near. 

Their risk/benefit calculation seems to be working correctly. The risk of catching the virus is higher if one passes closely by a person  who has COVID-19 who is not wearing a mask. So, by not taking the small step of putting on a mask when walking close to other people, you are signaling that that you are a person with higher probability of having been exposed to COVID-19. 

What is the additional risk those walkers take on by going off the trail into the woods? There may be a few (e.g., increased exposure to ticks, increased exposure to uneven ground), but they may feel they can control/mitigate those risks better than they can control/mitigate the potential impact of quickly walking into a cloud of someone's contaminated breath. 

The science they are using is more social science than infectious disease science. 

 Is there a study that shows you need to stay far away from others outdoors?   What study supports the safety regimen of driving down my little street at 50 MPH with a mask on?

What we're describing is irrational fear.  To an extent, I understand.   We are bombarded with worst case scenarios.  But, that doesn't make it science.

terp said:

What we're describing is irrational fear. To an extent, I understand. We are bombarded with worst case scenarios. But, that doesn't make it science.

If people have even an irrational fear, and you're the understanding type, what's the human impulse or rationale that's preventing you from wearing a mask outdoors to help them feel more at ease?

DaveSchmidt said:

terp said:

What we're describing is irrational fear. To an extent, I understand. We are bombarded with worst case scenarios. But, that doesn't make it science.

If people have even an irrational fear, and you're the understanding type, what's the human impulse or rationale that's preventing you from wearing a mask outdoors to help them feel more at ease?

 I don't like going along with propoganda campaigns.  I wear a mask in businesses because I don't want to get them in trouble.  

Funny story.  I play in a touch football game.  There are a few players who are in the medical field.  We don't wear masks during the plays, but were making up in the huddle.  I come back to the huddle and am fumbling for my mask, our qb who is a surgeon looks at me waves his hand and says "don't worry about it".  That was the end of that. 

STANV said:

It used to annoy me greatly that the anti-abortion folks called themselves "Pro-Life" because to my thinking no one was "Pro-Death" or "Anti-Life". 

Then along came the "herd immunity" crowd. 

This is the kind of thinking that is tearing this country apart.  Vapid and mean spirited.

terp said:

 I don't like going along with propoganda campaigns.  I wear a mask in businesses because I don't want to get them in trouble.  

Funny story.  I play in a touch football game.  There are a few players who are in the medical field.  We don't wear masks during the plays, but were making up in the huddle.  I come back to the huddle and am fumbling for my mask, our qb who is a surgeon looks at me waves his hand and says "don't worry about it".  That was the end of that. 

 Ah, the old "I know a doctor" anecdote strategy.

bub said:

Terp:

I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does.  And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people.  Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked.   There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.   

Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better.  The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work.  Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective?  Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.

 I don't think I agree.  I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear.  The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public.  If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies?  If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?

See below.  Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September.  California leads in mandate and lockdown policies. 

Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) december"="" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1340011511125692416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2020

Huh.  I'm not sure why the embed isn't working above.  

Anyway, This link has some good information on public mask efficacy.  It covers studies showing they don't work with links, discusses studies that claim they work, reviews risks of wearing masks, and has a video that illustrates the limitations of wearing the masks the general public tends to use.

I havent seen any talk about having to stay far away from people outdoors, much less about wearing a mask driving in your own car.  As far as I can tell, the increasing consensus has been that fleeting pass-bys outdoors on trails are not particularly dangerous.  I do a lot of hiking and I'm fine passing people who aren't masked as long as I am.  A couple of days ago I did see a group of about 12 adults walking in the reservation together and none were masked.  That just flashes danger to me (for them, not me).

terp said:

bub said:

Terp:

I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.

Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.

I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?

See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.

Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) december"="" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1340011511125692416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2020

 Is it worth pointing out that it's behavior -- masking, social distancing, washing hands -- that matters, and that this is a separate question from what the best way to encourage such behavior is? Or has that been pointed out enough on this thread, and if that distinction's still being ignored then there's probably not a real desire to engage here?

PVW said:

terp said:

bub said:

Terp:

I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.

Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.

I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?

See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.

Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) december"="" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1340011511125692416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2020

terp said:

bub said:

Terp:

I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.

Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.

I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?

See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.

Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) december"="" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1340011511125692416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2020

Click to Read More

terp said:

bub said:

Terp:

I think we can agree that no mandate or recommendation protects anyone, it's compliance with same that does. And I'm not seeing the level of compliance you're seeing, especially among young people. Especially since the school year started, whenever I see a clump of teens together, invariably only a minority of them are masked. There's also half-assed useless "compliance" like the mask under the nose look I see so often.

Re the squad, yes we have n95 masks and better. The conclusion is that good masks work, not that no masks work. Do you disagree based on my own and my squad's experience that good masks are highly effective? Give me an alternative theory to explain our experience.

I don't think I agree. I mean, the efficacy of masks is not clear. The corporate press and our politicians clearly overstate the efficacy of mask wearing by the general public. If masks are so effective why do we need lockdown policies? If lockdown policies are so effective why don't the numbers show this?

See below. Florida lifted all mandates at the end of September. California leads in mandate and lockdown policies.

Since Thanksgiving, the count of currently hospitalized Covid patients in the USA has increased by 26%. Interestingly, more than 1/2 of this growth has come from just two states: California and New York. If only they had locked down and worn masks! pic.twitter.com/fJF95DcIYm

— PLC (@Humble_Analysis) december"="" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1340011511125692416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 18, 2020

 Is it worth pointing out that it's behavior -- masking, social distancing, washing hands -- that matters, and that this is a separate question from what the best way to encourage such behavior is? Or has that been pointed out enough on this thread, and if that distinction's still being ignored then there's probably not a real desire to engage here?

 This assumes efficacy. Are you claiming that Florida has better compliance with the behaviors being suggested than California?   

nohero said:

terp said:

 I don't like going along with propoganda campaigns.  I wear a mask in businesses because I don't want to get them in trouble.  

Funny story.  I play in a touch football game.  There are a few players who are in the medical field.  We don't wear masks during the plays, but were making up in the huddle.  I come back to the huddle and am fumbling for my mask, our qb who is a surgeon looks at me waves his hand and says "don't worry about it".  That was the end of that. 

 Ah, the old "I know a doctor" anecdote strategy.

 Except the doctor I know is apparently a member of a "death cult"

terp said:

STANV said:

It used to annoy me greatly that the anti-abortion folks called themselves "Pro-Life" because to my thinking no one was "Pro-Death" or "Anti-Life". 

Then along came the "herd immunity" crowd. 

This is the kind of thinking that is tearing this country apart.  Vapid and mean spirited.

 And by the way the WHO changed their definition of Herd Immunitythis year...

terp said:

 Except the doctor I know is apparently a member of a "death cult"

Perhaps, or maybe he'd just be annoyed that you're invoking him for your stories.

Meh.  I don't think he would care.