Omicron variant concerns

This is more of a wish than a practical possibility.  The hard core belittlers of the seriousness of Covid, who trash talk the medical community, should walk the walk and stay home when they get sick.  But they don't and won't.  

Smokers are addicted, anti-vaxxers are just ****. 

RobB said:

Smokers are addicted, anti-vaxxers are just ****. 

Perhaps, but there are forms of addiction that don't involve substance abuse.

Sex, gambling, internet porn, doom scrolling, attention (as in Munchausen's disease and Munchausen's by proxy to name a few). Conspiracy delusions and some anxiety disorders could also be relevant when considering the anti-vax mindset. There are people who are absolutely convinced they or a loved one have been harmed by a vaccine or by various drugs, especially the psychoactive drugs. Antibiotics and other anti-infectives, too.

Does it rise to the level of a mental health concern? I'd say yes in some cases but I'm not a licensed therapist, only studying to be one at this point.

susan1014 said:

sac said:

I don't think that unvaccinated Covid patients (who are eligible for the vaccine) should be admitted if it will take beds away from non-Covid or vaccinated Covid patients who need them, including so-called elective surgery/treatment patients whose conditions might worsen if treatment is delayed. JMHO

Tempting, but a dangerous road to travel.  Do we also put smokers at the back of the line for hospital care? Drug users? People who had accidents because they were speeding? Unhelmeted motorcyclists? People with BMIs above certain limits?  Shifting from disease based triage to lifestyle judgment triage seems problematic to me (and only encourages the use of fake vaccine cards).

I hear what you are saying, but I think it's a false equivalence.  Addictions and overweight and similar conditions may have originated from making bad choices but the road to them and the steps to escape are much more complex than a vaccine decision.  (And I would also excuse those with medical exceptions for the vaccine.  I'm on the fence about religious objections since no religion I know of officially opposes them but that's harder.)   As far as fake vaccine cards are concerned, I am much in favor of actual vaccine records (e.g. "Vaccine Passports") that are not so easily faked as the CDC cards.  Also, health insurance companies and some medical facilities already triage certain conditions and I think that getting vaccinated is SO easy and available (at least to us in the US) and takes effect relatively quickly - much more quickly than reversing addictions, excess body weight, etc., so I am not buying that excuse.  Also, I'm not aware of those other types of injuries/conditions happening in numbers sufficient to cause significant triage of other patients the way COVID clearly DOES threaten to do and already has in some cases.

Hospitalizations in NJ are back up to the Feb/March level. In my experience, it's not "easy" to get admitted to a hospital--they will not take you unless you are very sick...

From yesterday's Star Ledger. I think there is a graph in the subscriber only section:

New Jersey’s hospital COVID-19 count has been on the rise since early to mid November, when the total number of virus patients statewide was between 600 and 700.

According to data from 69 of the state’s 71 hospitals, there were 2,654 total hospital patients with COVID-19 as of Sunday night — two hospitals didn’t report data. That’s an increase of 194 from the day before, despite at least 209 patients being discharged during the 24-hour period that ended 10 p.m. Sunday night. It’s also 620 more than a week ago, or 30%, and nearly triple (197%) from a month ago.

Hospitalizations have not yet grown at the level they did during last winter, when figures exceeded 3,800, or at the beginning of the pandemic, when hospitalizations exceeded 6,000. But increases in patients typically follow a week to 10 days after surges in case numbers.

Of the 2,654 hospital patients reported Sunday, 459 were in intensive care (13 more than the previous night) and 223 were on ventilators (11 more than the previous night).

Well ****, I just can't post my snarky reply after reading that again. "You forgot to say 'And have a nice day.'" is the only part left that weekends.

Where is that data published? I need something to affirm the dread I've been fighting off this December. And this is in a region with high vaccination rates as well as memories of how bad it was here in 2020..

I saw your post about contact tracing lapses in the other thread about remote school when they reopen. I did that in 2020 for a while and I will say that it's hard to do if you haven't had the training. Not just the logistics of tracing but also the emotional affects of hearing people's reactions to the news and their questions about how much life is going to be temporarily mucked up if they adhere to the health department's recommendations. So many people could not afford to quarantine or isolate, which was even more restrictive.

The interview we were supposed to go through with our list of contacts was at least 10-15 minutes long and many folks didn't want to talk to us. The conversations would sometimes be 30 minutes or more of a person had been around other people. Many of the questions are both uncomfortable and touch on private matters that HIPAA normally protects but not when it's related to a public health emergency. The public health emergency was clear in the summer through winter of 2020 but now? I suppose contact tracers get a lot more pushback now, especially when reports of breakthrough infections were considered blatant fear porn.

I am seeing some really dire predictions about how January is going to be a total train wreck, with major disruptions to normal living, mostly due to not enough people being available to work. And, I guess, hospitals filling up.

I know deaths are a lagging indicator - but with over 400,000 cases and 1,200 deaths - let's hope that it's less severe and vaccines have helped.  I'm sure the # of cases are much greater due to at home tests not being reported.

That said - hospitals in NY are filling up - here's the latest news on Omicron:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/omicron-variant-coronavirus-news-01-03-22/index.html

From what I’ve been hearing, there’s an omicron tsunami out there. I’m not an alarmist, but I feel like this omicron is the sucker punch. Most people dropped their guards and now we’re seeing the results. 

Yes, there are a lot of cases but a fair amount of good news too.  Consistent with the South African experience, seems like its already peaked in London, the U.K epicenter, and will peak nationwide there soon.  Everything about it is fast moving from its spread to its incubation period to the duration of symptoms.  People I know were symptomatic for 3 to 5 days compared to the weeks I used to hear about in the early days of the pandemic.  The more recent studies and reports seem to be reinforcing the mildness angle, at least among the vaccinated. 

and once again, the problem is the unvaccinated.  They are overwhelmingly the ones who are seriously ill enough to end up in a hospital.  

ml1 said:

and once again, the problem is the unvaccinated.  They are overwhelmingly the ones who are seriously ill enough to end up in a hospital.  

There is some foolishness among the vaccinated as well.   I did curbside pickup at Home Depot today.  A fair number of people were walking in an out maskless as I waited.   We've all seen this elsewhere too.  They're not paying attention to the news.  Given the explosive transmissabilty of this current thing and its ability to infect the vaccinated, you would think people would pay attention.  Alas, like Belushi said, "but noooo. . ."  

I haven't had much to post here for a while, other than to echo these past few. There have been so many cases turning up in people who say they've been so careful but caught it anyway. They stay home except for essentials. They wear masks, no one visits and vice versa yet they got it and do not know how.

At the very beginning of this thread I spoke of this more readily spread variant having some new modes transmission, such as by mere surface contact. As far as we know, that isn't the case but it is amazing to see how the new case rate has spiked compared to earlier phases of the while pandemic. Why?

This variant is spreading so well in spite of our knowing how masks can tamp down on that. Is it just that more people have given up on wearing them compared to earlier? Is it showing up in children much more, a population that hasn't had as much masking demand placed on them? These factors and the lesser severity of omicron infections might be contributing to more asymptomatic spread than we think. I say that because of the recent scarcity of tests and the possibility of tests, especially rapid non-PCR tests not picking it up as well as other variants. That **** can happen when something has so many new mutations.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/sars-cov-2-viral-mutations-impact-covid-19-tests

Testing technique is important and do-it-yourself tests at home have two reasons for false negatives. 

The first is not being as aggressive as one needs to be when swabbing the nasal passages. I've had the nasal swab test administered at an urgent care last spring and geez, did that suck or what? I don't know if I'd do it as deep as that on my own. Now consider having those who haven't had one before try it on themselves. Or on their child? I'd be afraid of poking them too hard.

The second is discussed in this report and to sum it up, swabbing both the nose and throat might be the better strategy to detect a COVID infection now. The omicron variant might be more likely to be found in the throat where as the original version and earlier variants were better collected from the nose. The data isn't clear as to why but mistaken negatives are much more common now.

https://www.insideedition.com/is-a-throat-swab-more-accurate-than-a-nasal-test-in-detecting-covid-19-inside-edition-looks-to-find

I think it's very very unlikely to get infected when you're wearing a well fitted N95 mask.  No one among my family, friends and colleagues who has been careful has gotten sick in recent weeks.  Others who took chances - like eating in restaurants -- have.  Obviously I can't speak to every mystery case but I don't believe in general that Omicron trumps careful behavior.

I'm kind of surprised (or am I?) at the number of maskless people I'm seeing these days.

And what constitutes an N95 mask these days is variable. I've got two types of N95's, and one is clearly superior to the other.  The fit is much tighter, and the mask itself is a lot more formidable. Not sure how both get to be classified as N95's.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008MCUZZS?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details

And speaking of masks:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/why-you-should-upgrade-your-face-mask-to-an-n95.html

this thread is also worth reading

bub said:

I think it's very very unlikely to get infected when you're wearing a well fitted N95 mask.  No one among my family, friends and colleagues who has been careful has gotten sick in recent weeks.  Others who took chances - like eating in restaurants -- have.  Obviously I can't speak to every mystery case but I don't believe in general that Omicron trumps careful behavior.

Almost everyone I know who tested positive recently have been eating out at restaurants. I’m beginning to think that’s where a lot of the spreading is taking place. Even the restaurant staff are getting infected, although they’re all fully vaccinated. People have to take their masks off to eat. 
Home Depot is another breeding ground. To see people maskless, or with the mask below their noses is so annoying. Not to mention they’re right on top of you on the check out line. 
I even spray my masks with sanitizer and hang them on my rear view mirror. I really don’t know what else anyone can do at this point. Shop rite from home has been great for me. But Home Depot I have to go in occasionally. Sucks.

I'm watching the Ranger game right now.  Most people in seats not masked.  Sitting shoulder to shoulder unmasked yelling and cheering for hours.  Omicron doesn't need this kind of help but is getting it.

bub said:

There is some foolishness among the vaccinated as well.   I did curbside pickup at Home Depot today.  A fair number of people were walking in an out maskless as I waited.   We've all seen this elsewhere too.  They're not paying attention to the news.  Given the explosive transmissabilty of this current thing and its ability to infect the vaccinated, you would think people would pay attention.  Alas, like Belushi said, "but noooo. . ."  

why do you assume the unmasked people are vaccinated? 

Not assuming they all are.

We do live in a highly vaccinated area and I know people who even in recent weeks have taken comfort in the now passe idea that "we are all vaccinated" so we can hang together without worry.  I think most of the maskless in our area are vaccinated.

A little postscript to something I think I mentioned a few weeks ago.  I went to see a band at the Jersey Shore.  Omicron was already on the horizon but hadn't hit here yet.  I was careful - N95, hung back away from crowd and where outside air was coming in etc. -  but most of crowd was shoulder to shoulder by stage, unmasked.  The place had no rules re Covid.  Since then, they've cancelled at least three shows, two openly out of "Covid concerns."

PeterWick said:

The second is discussed in this report and to sum it up, swabbing both the nose and throat might be the better strategy to detect a COVID infection now. The omicron variant might be more likely to be found in the throat where as the original version and earlier variants were better collected from the nose. The data isn't clear as to why but mistaken negatives are much more common now.

https://www.insideedition.com/is-a-throat-swab-more-accurate-than-a-nasal-test-in-detecting-covid-19-inside-edition-looks-to-find

Peter, is there any danger of spreading disease by swabbing yourself in the throat and then putting the swab in your nose, as is recommended?

drummerboy said:

I'm kind of surprised (or am I?) at the number of maskless people I'm seeing these days.

And what constitutes an N95 mask these days is variable. I've got two types of N95's, and one is clearly superior to the other.  The fit is much tighter, and the mask itself is a lot more formidable. Not sure how both get to be classified as N95's.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008MCUZZS?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2_dt_b_product_details

And speaking of masks:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/why-you-should-upgrade-your-face-mask-to-an-n95.html

Drummerboy, what N95 mask do you like best, of those you've tried and read about?

The ones with the rubberbands that go to the back of the head fit more snuggly than the ones with ear loops.  Don't know how hard they are to find these days.  

It seems to me that people (vaccinated or not) have decided for the most part that the current risks are acceptable.  The Omicron variant will run its course and will end up infecting almost everybody.

Jasmo said:

Peter, is there any danger of spreading disease by swabbing yourself in the throat and then putting the swab in your nose, as is recommended?

I'll have to look that up. I don't know if transferring COVID viral particles already in the throat to the nasal passages makes the situation any worse.

Omicron doesn't appear to latch onto the nasal epithelium well (why? I don't understand yet) so it might not be a problem. The reverse sends to be going on for delta. Confusing it is.

Jasmo said:

Drummerboy, what N95 mask do you like best, of those you've tried and read about?

the one I linked to earlier from Amazon.

bub said:

The ones with the rubberbands that go to the back of the head fit more snuggly than the ones with ear loops.  Don't know how hard they are to find these days.  

yup. The one I linked to is like that. It also has foam across the bridge of the nose for a more airtight fit.

Confusing segment on Brian Lehrer's show today. 

Rapid tests are often done the wrong way or not thoroughly enough. The doc discusses how to do them the right way. 

Then he says:

Rapid tests are better indicators of when a person can exit isolation than PCR tests are. Gives some detail as to why that I'm not quite sure of, but he's the qualified guest speaker.

Okay, but what if they're not done correctly and show a false negative result?