Omicron variant concerns
bub said:
I don't want to discourage vaccinations but Omicron may be moving too fast to really benefit the completely unvaccinated, even if they all join the party now, if the powers that be hold to the current schedule for the second (and third) shots. It may peak by the end of January.
BTW, they have yet to cancel the Times Square New Year Eve celebration. I can't imagine they will go forward with it unless Omicron somehow fizzles. Can you imagine hundreds of thousands of people shoulder to shoulder for hours drinking and whatnot?
OTOH, if you get infected and vaccinated, and come through the infection all right, the data seems to show that you've got some good protection going forward, right? So while it would be idiotic to purposely get infected and then vaccinated, it seems that there's a strong case for getting vaccinated even in the midst of a fast-moving surge of cases, right?
ml1 said:
PVW said:
And that, right there, is the difference between unvaccinated and vaccinated.
In addition that that aggregate comparison of vaccinated vs unvaccinated, I was also thinking of the divergence between highly vaccinated and less vaccinated regions, as I noted earlier this fall:
I attached Idaho vs NJ here. Notice how Idaho (46% fully vaccinated) has all three of the case, hospitalization, and death rates go together while NJ (70% fully vaccinated) sees deaths stay flat while cases explode.
A booster every four months?
And enough already. The Biden admin needs to be assertive. Proactively invoke health measures.
The administration says “we’re sticking to the science.” The science says four months is the waning, not six months. We’ve got all of these people sitting out there waiting to get to six months while they’re unprotected. After four months, you pretty much need a booster, and you certainly need it against Omicron.
The problem is that we have a Balkanized country. For example, a lot of people are going to be flying for the holidays. Why isn’t it required that everybody be fully vaccinated? By the way, fully vaccinated means three shots, unless you’re within four months of your second shot. It should have been done some time ago. We should be much tighter about who gets into airports, gets on planes, sits on runways. That would help immensely.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/dr-eric-topol-on-omicron-and-americas-immunity-wall.html
This to me makes complete and total sense at this point and I hope Biden does this. I am so tired of hearing apocalyptic predictions based on the omicron case numbers.
A shift toward focusing on severity instead of case numbers
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/18/politics/white-house-omicron-warning-joe-biden/index.html
Smedley said:
This to me makes complete and total sense at this point and I hope Biden does this. I am so tired of hearing apocalyptic predictions based on the omicron case numbers.
A shift toward focusing on severity instead of case numbers
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/18/politics/white-house-omicron-warning-joe-biden/index.html
I agree with the emphasis on severity though I also take heed of those who say that the sheer number of Omicron cases will pose a threat to hospitals even if the overall severity and rate of hospitalizations is lower.
There's a lot of confusing and contradictory data and predictions out there but the data seems pretty solid that, so far, hospitalizations and deaths have not moved up anything like in lock step with new cases. I was looking at the U.K. stats this morning and if I'm reading them correctly, positive tests roughly doubled in the last 30 days but hospitalizations are actually down a little during that same 30 day period.
Doherty Institute modelling indicates that in a month, in the worst case, we could be seeing 200,000 new cases a day. Even if you’re talking ‘milder overall illness’, that’s still pretty overwhelming for community-level medical support services and for families.* It’s a huge burden for any economy - especially when you consider the families with already limited access to medical/pharmaceutical support due to regionality or remoteness (those populations are already at heightened vulnerability and we’ve seen shocking issues with getting them vaccinated).
So I don’t see how changing the ‘tone’ in reporting would in any way be more comforting or responsible for any government. (Our federal govt is already attempting to spin this, and we’re not buying it.)
* Metropolitan Fever Clinics/testing clinics already are bursting, and people are waiting up 5 days for their results. Can you imagine what it will be like in a month?? Even with isolation time halved for fully vaccinated people, following a negative result, how will households still waiting for results or with illness manage to get their supplies, pets exercised, etc - a lot of places are no longer able to sustain home deliveries/not everything is suitable for home delivery… the logistics are just mind boggling.
joanne said:
Doherty Institute modelling indicates that in a month, in the worst case, we could be seeing 200,000 new cases a day. Even if you’re talking ‘milder overall illness’, that’s still pretty overwhelming for community-level medical support services and for families.* It’s a huge burden for any economy - especially when you consider the families with already limited access to medical/pharmaceutical support due to regionality or remoteness (those populations are already at heightened vulnerability and we’ve seen shocking issues with getting them vaccinated).
So I don’t see how changing the ‘tone’ in reporting would in any way be more comforting or responsible for any government. (Our federal govt is already attempting to spin this, and we’re not buying it.)
* Metropolitan Fever Clinics/testing clinics already are bursting, and people are waiting up 5 days for their results. Can you imagine what it will be like in a month?? Even with isolation time halved for fully vaccinated people, following a negative result, how will households still waiting for results or with illness manage to get their supplies, pets exercised, etc - a lot of places are no longer able to sustain home deliveries/not everything is suitable for home delivery… the logistics are just mind boggling.
And for anyone new here, note that that is a possible 200,000 a day in Australia. The worst case numbers in the US are something like a million new cases per day, although that comes with the caveat that we'll probably never record those numbers if they happen, because there will be testing shortages. We won't know how this plays out for hospitals until we have more long-term data on hospitalizations, which take time to develop. But this is on an ugly collision course with people's holiday plans -- we've canceled and will have lots of family time, but I'm assuming many won't, and many infections will be shared.
Okay, so it has been three weeks since the beginning of that sharp rise in daily new cases due to omicron. I mean, just look at those charts for NY and NJ... But a big difference is how the daily new deaths chart does not show a trailing increase in NJ (and NY as well). That is a good sign at least. There is probably a source for breaking numbers down by vaccination status and/or age & co-occurring medical conditions somewhere to get a better view if you want.
PeterWick said:
Okay, so it has been three weeks since the beginning of that sharp rise in daily new cases due to omicron. I mean, just look at those charts for NY and NJ... But a big difference is how the daily new deaths chart does not show a trailing increase in NJ (and NY as well). That is a good sign at least. There is probably a source for breaking numbers down by vaccination status and/or age & co-occurring medical conditions somewhere to get a better view if you want.
the one common theme you keep hearing from Doctors and Nurses on the ground from S. Africa and now the U.S. is the new variant seems to unleash mild symptoms. However, Scientists aren’t ready to sign off on this nor are politicians.
I don't recall who posted that story discussing differences between South Africa's experience with omicron but it did point out factors that could make our experience here more troublesome. There are places in the U.S. that haven't dispensed with delta yet, those places are currently having difficulties like overloaded ICUs and staff.
There are places that do not take precautions seriously and those areas will also get hit harder than we expect if we continue to hold to the SA comparison. My wife's HR job now consists of trying to maintain & balance their workforce and revamping COVID protocols for office staff and those on the store line. But what is she doing more and more each day instead??? She is contact tracing her workforce and any vendors with whom any COVID+ employees have been in contact. She has gotten 4 or more cases each day these past two weeks. The reports she gets on the way people behave are simply mind-numbing.
So, in this scenario, with omicron causing mostly mild symptoms, what are the percentage of those COVID-omicron+ having more serious illness? This link shows current data from the CDC. The graph that goes with the quoted text below shows a definite rise in hospitalizations nationwide. There is also some discussion of the way vaccination has affected different areas of the U.S. Our experience in metro-NYC might fool us into thinking omicron won't be so bad.
https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/21/omicron-by-the-numbers-where-things-stand-now/
Hospitalizations are rising, but not as quickly (so far)
Similar to the visualization above, here is the history of hospitalization rates by state or territory since last fall.
What is promising here, at least so far, is that recent increases in hospitalization rates, especially in the Northeast, have been more modest than corresponding case increases. It is important to note here that hospitalizations tend to lag behind new case reports, so this picture could change.
It could be the case that high vaccination rates in the Northeast may be contributing to lower rates of hospitalizations, which is consistent with data showing that hospitalizations are much higher nationwide for the unvaccinated.
Redfruit said:
PeterWick said:
Okay, so it has been three weeks since the beginning of that sharp rise in daily new cases due to omicron. I mean, just look at those charts for NY and NJ... But a big difference is how the daily new deaths chart does not show a trailing increase in NJ (and NY as well). That is a good sign at least. There is probably a source for breaking numbers down by vaccination status and/or age & co-occurring medical conditions somewhere to get a better view if you want.
the one common theme you keep hearing from Doctors and Nurses on the ground from S. Africa and now the U.S. is the new variant seems to unleash mild symptoms. However, Scientists aren’t ready to sign off on this nor are politicians.
When you mix science and politics together you get politics.
terp said:
Redfruit said:
PeterWick said:
Okay, so it has been three weeks since the beginning of that sharp rise in daily new cases due to omicron. I mean, just look at those charts for NY and NJ... But a big difference is how the daily new deaths chart does not show a trailing increase in NJ (and NY as well). That is a good sign at least. There is probably a source for breaking numbers down by vaccination status and/or age & co-occurring medical conditions somewhere to get a better view if you want.
the one common theme you keep hearing from Doctors and Nurses on the ground from S. Africa and now the U.S. is the new variant seems to unleash mild symptoms. However, Scientists aren’t ready to sign off on this nor are politicians.
When you mix science and politics together you get politics.
How could setting public policy be anything other than politics? Regardless of the inputs.
The bottom graph at this link shows vaxxed vs unvaxxed rate of hospitalizations through end of November, and it allows you to view by age group (through the end of November). Although the y-axis numbers are smaller for younger ages, the green vs blue trendlines are still clear at all ages.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination
To summarize:
- It shows unvaccinated 12-17 year-olds in Oct/Nov were hospitalized between 7 to 28 times more frequently than vaccinated.
- For 18-49 year olds, it shows up to 30 times more frequent hospitalizations for the unvaccinated.
- 50-64 years the unvaccinated were hospitalized 20 times more at the most recent date shown;
- and for 65+ the unvaccinated were hospitalized 15 times more at the most recent date shown.
Omicron might change the pattern somewhat... or it might not. While I'm not surprised the data takes a month to be released, I was hoping by now we'd have good systems in place to release it sooner.
Well, ****. Monoclonal antibodies that had worked for earlier variants haven't helped against serious cases of omicron. And the one that still appears up do so is - wait for it - now in short supply.
The link may not work and it's behind a pay wall. There's also a map of ICU usage and the county in the article.
Federal health officials plan to assess at the end of this week whether to pause shipments of the Eli Lilly and Regeneron products to individual states, based on how dominant Omicron becomes in different regions of the country, according to a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
*** Those are the two less effective ones ***
The one monoclonal antibody treatment that has performed well against Omicron in laboratory experiments is also the most recently authorized: sotrovimab, made by GlaxoSmithKline and Vir Biotechnology and cleared in May.
Already in high demand even before Omicron arose, the supply of sotrovimab is very limited for now. But the situation is likely to improve somewhat in the coming weeks. The Biden administration is in talks with GlaxoSmithKline about securing more doses to be delivered by early next year, the administration official said.
***** The following is hopeful news *****
Regulators are also expected this week to authorize antiviral pills from Pfizer and Merck, the first two products in a new class of Covid treatments, according to two senior administration officials.
drummerboy said:
terp said:
When you mix science and politics together you get politics.
How could setting public policy be anything other than politics? Regardless of the inputs.
PLEASE keep political rancor out of this thread.
PeterWick said:
drummerboy said:
terp said:
When you mix science and politics together you get politics.
How could setting public policy be anything other than politics? Regardless of the inputs.
PLEASE keep political rancor out of this thread.
rancor? that was practically a kiss. 
Recently had Covid. Male, mid-40's, no comorbidities. Didn't get tested until day 5 or 6 of being symptomatic, thought I had a cold. Remainder of family (including unvaxxed under 10's) didn't get anything, which was confirmed with multiple PCR tests.
Article below from The Post articulates quite clearly the fear porn from the mainstream. It's time to move on. If you're concerned and want to wear a mask forever and vax yourself into oblivion, go for it, but the >99.50% of us for whom this is a big nothing burger, just need to move on and deal. Protect the at-risk, but it's endemic at this point, to deny otherwise is just being ignorant.
https://nypost.com/2021/12/21/omicron-coverage-reveals-how-the-establishment-media-keep-us-scared/
prisoners_dilemma said:
Recently had Covid. Male, mid-40's, no comorbidities. Didn't get tested until day 5 or 6 of being symptomatic, thought I had a cold. Remainder of family (including unvaxxed under 10's) didn't get anything, which was confirmed with multiple PCR tests.
Article below from The Post articulates quite clearly the fear porn from the mainstream. It's time to move on. If you're concerned and want to wear a mask forever and vax yourself into oblivion, go for it, but the >99.50% of us for whom this is a big nothing burger, just need to move on and deal. Protect the at-risk, but it's endemic at this point, to deny otherwise is just being ignorant.
https://nypost.com/2021/12/21/omicron-coverage-reveals-how-the-establishment-media-keep-us-scared/
There is certainly reason to hope that Omicron is less severe though I'm not going to base that conclusion on one man's experience, assuming yours was an Omicron case.
There were over 2000 deaths in the U.S. yesterday and I believe the most recent daily NJ case case count is the highest ever. These numbers do not bespeak "endemic."
Assuming Omicron is substantially milder than previous variants, there is still reason to hold on to an use your masks and be careful. If its a fair concern that the sheer number of expected Omicron cases might overwhelm hospitals, even if overall the percentage of hospitalizations is lower with this variant, it's not a good idea to pretend like the good old days are back and do nothing to try to slow the thing down.
On an individual level, concern about long Covid remains. I don't know how much of a risk it is but I know its real. I know of one relatively young person who has ongoing heart problems as a result of Covid. I'm not quite ready to pretend we are out of the woods and do nothing to protect myself while this thing is still widespread.
prisoners_dilemma said:
Recently had Covid. Male, mid-40's, no comorbidities. Didn't get tested until day 5 or 6 of being symptomatic, thought I had a cold. Remainder of family (including unvaxxed under 10's) didn't get anything, which was confirmed with multiple PCR tests.
Article below from The Post articulates quite clearly the fear porn from the mainstream. It's time to move on. If you're concerned and want to wear a mask forever and vax yourself into oblivion, go for it, but the >99.50% of us for whom this is a big nothing burger, just need to move on and deal. Protect the at-risk, but it's endemic at this point, to deny otherwise is just being ignorant.
https://nypost.com/2021/12/21/omicron-coverage-reveals-how-the-establishment-media-keep-us-scared/
The press, mainstream or otherwise, is doing what it always does. Presenting news to get attention.
As far as Covid is concerned, it is clear that is became endemic a long time ago.
At this point, caution is still warranted. I am not cowering in my house, but if I need to mask up in Shoprite and on public transit for the next year, that is no hardship and certainly not an infringement on my rights.
And if I have to get a booster every year, like I do with the flu shot, again, that is no hardship and certainly not an infringement on my rights.
Mostly, I am feeling like we dodge a big bullet. If the initial version of Covid was as contagious as Omicron and as deadly as the first wave, it would have been pretty catastrophic.
The Township of Maplewood has just adopted the following policy, effective immediately, in reaction to the threat posed by the Omicron variant.
Mask Mandate and Proof of Vaccination Requirement
Please be advised that last night the Maplewood Township Committee unanimously approved a mandate requiring the use of a mask in all indoor public settings, except when eating. This mandate applies to both businesses and public settings, and is to be enforced for all people over the age of two. Those who are unable to wear a mask due to a medical condition will also be exempt from the mandate.
Further, effective immediately any person attending an indoor Township-sponsored event or private event that is open to the public will be required to show either proof of COVID-19 vaccination (for all eligible individuals age 5 and over) OR proof of a negative COVID-19 test from the past 72 hours.
bub said:
I'm not quite ready to pretend we are out of the woods and do nothing to protect myself while this thing is still widespread.
Amen
When you get tested positive - do they tell you which strain it was? I think the big surprise with omicron was the rapid spread of it. Fortunately, it does sound like it is on the milder side. I can't fault any over reaction to it.
prisoners_dilemma said:
Recently had Covid. Male, mid-40's, no comorbidities. Didn't get tested until day 5 or 6 of being symptomatic, thought I had a cold.
... but the >99.50% of us for whom this is a big nothing burger, just need to move on and deal. Protect the at-risk, but it's endemic at this point, to deny otherwise is just being ignorant.
These data suggest otherwise but I'm very glad your experience was essentially uneventful. The link below will come off as fear porn to you from what I gather but I have to say that your claim of ">99.50%" is unwarranted.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/22/health/2020-death-data-cdc/index.html
In the link below are worldwide data. The 5.3M deaths out of 272.5M cases comes to just under 2%.
https://fullfact.org/health/Covid-recovery-vaccine/
And "not dead" does not mean fully recovered. Statistics on the consequential morbidities after recovering from COVID are harder to come by but this Mayo Clinic link provides some information. COVID infections cause bodily events that are not easily healed such as blood clots and the damage they can cause wherever they wind up stuck in the body's blood vessels. That's just one scenario and there are many other lasting conditions that still have yet to be understood.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351
Here's an interesting take on one of the pitfalls of trying to prevent the spread of COVID. This guy, and another prof from Brown University, argue that since COVID doesn't affect children as badly as other populations, keeping them out of school does more harm than good.
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2021/12/21/harvard-joseph-allen-covid-school-closures/?p1=hp_featurestack
I have to say that they seem to dismiss the possibility that those children may transmit COVID infections to people who are not so invulnerable to it. Teachers and school staff may fall into groups that are more at risk. Parents and older relatives, too. And on and on.
There was one line that really caught my eye though. He laments that bars remain open while schools are closed and says, rightfully so, that bars definitely spread COVID.
Millions of people going through airports. I can't imagine the stihshow by January 5th.
That's the data taken from screenshots on the COVID Alert NJ app this morning. This week now has the highest daily case rate yet since early 2020. The new cases graph from NY State shows an even sharper rise. since December 17th, their daily cases have far exceeded the worst of the previous waves, with a couple of days north of 25,000 new cases.
Please be careful and go back to more diligent mask-wearing, especially indoors.
Misinformation from, Mercola, a well-known purveyor of sketchy "medical" advice.
The article below is full of misinformation, including its title. As the senior author of the study being cited by this article, I have repeatedly said that having recovered from a SARS-CoV-2 infection does NOT mean you are protected for life esp. in face of an evolving virus. pic.twitter.com/ieVxn1yBS0
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Scary indeed. The NPR story reminds me of the early speculation that those countries that mandated the BCG tuberculosis vaccine would have a lesser COVID death toll.