Omicron variant concerns
PVW said:
ml1 said:
we were also asked to take a COVID test ahead of time, or when we arrived at the house.
Do you know what they used for the at-home tests? Or for the thread in general, thoughts on testing strategies? At this point we're still going to make the trip (the sibling has decided to un-invite herself; we'll see if she gets over it and can handle wearing a mask for a few hours and join us), but I'll want to get the whole family tested when we get back, even apart from family drama (airport layovers, and being in an unvaccinated part of the country for a week, seems like good enough reasons for testing on their own).
FWIW: I know of someone who did the at-home test, which showed negative. They felt sick, so they went and had a PCR test done at a testing site. It was positive.
It would seem that a constantly evolving corona virus is here to stay. That being the case, we have to find a more relaxed way of covering new variants or else we will have a collective nervous breakdown. Omicron is being over-covered in the news.
tjohn said:
It would seem that a constantly evolving corona virus is here to stay. That being the case, we have to find a more relaxed way of covering new variants or else we will have a collective nervous breakdown. Omicron is being over-covered in the news.
Devil’s Advocate: The “over-coverage” is from the perspective of the vaccinated. I think they’re really trying to scare the holdouts into vaccination, especially because mandates are being struck down.
jimmurphy said:
tjohn said:
It would seem that a constantly evolving corona virus is here to stay. That being the case, we have to find a more relaxed way of covering new variants or else we will have a collective nervous breakdown. Omicron is being over-covered in the news.
Devil’s Advocate: The “over-coverage” is from the perspective of the vaccinated. I think they’re really trying to scare the holdouts into vaccination, especially because mandates are being struck down.
That's a fool's errand since we have seen that about the only thing that changes the mind of holdouts is a death in the family.
Meanwhile, cases and hospitalizations are shooting up again in NJ leading to the same old questions. Is it from Thanksgiving gatherings, the cold weather driving people inside? And what's the breakdown from the latest surge between the vaccinated and unvaccinated?
Omicron Could Knock a Fragile Economic Recovery Off Track
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/02/business/economy/omicron-economy.html
Not crying out in terror at what may become of us but not exactly saying it's nothing to worry about either. We're still waiting on more data over the next couple of weeks but this thing comes in the middle of a month that has had some predictable patterns (like the Santa Claus rally in stocks) in the past. Uncertainty is the last thing we need and making safe choices might also mean making hard choices.
Just perused articles out of Israel and Botswana that are encouraging. Only one among eight fully vaccinated Israelis who tested + for the Omicron strain was symptomatic. Only 16 of the 19 cases detected in Botswana were symptomatic and the remaining 3 were "very, very mild."
bub said:
Just perused articles out of Israel and Botswana that are encouraging. Only one among eight fully vaccinated Israelis who tested + for the Omicron strain was symptomatic. Only 16 of the 19 cases detected in Botswana were symptomatic and the remaining 3 were "very, very mild."
That's hopeful evidence for the "good" scenario:
"If Omicron ends up being super contagious, for example, but mild in its symptoms, that might even be a good thing—a perfect variant, just in time for Christmas" (from Omicron’s Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios, The Atlantic)
PVW said:
bub said:
Just perused articles out of Israel and Botswana that are encouraging. Only one among eight fully vaccinated Israelis who tested + for the Omicron strain was symptomatic. Only 16 of the 19 cases detected in Botswana were symptomatic and the remaining 3 were "very, very mild."
That's hopeful evidence for the "good" scenario:
"If Omicron ends up being super contagious, for example, but mild in its symptoms, that might even be a good thing—a perfect variant, just in time for Christmas" (from Omicron’s Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios, The Atlantic)
Somewhat of a blessing in disguise in that it is a sort of immunization, but only if you survive it and it doesn't trigger some other underlying issue.
Seems as though humans have been battling with nature on this ball spinning out in space forever. Darwin was onto something alright…
I saw some wag a while ago saying bacteria and viruses were like the earth's immune system...
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1201-omicron-variant.html
The California and San Francisco Departments of Public Health have confirmed that a recent case of COVID-19 among an individual in California was caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). The individual was a traveler who returned from South Africa on November 22, 2021. The individual had mild symptoms that are improving, is self-quarantining and has been since testing positive. All close contacts have been contacted and have tested negative.
Genomic sequencing was conducted at the University of California, San Francisco and the sequence was confirmed at CDC as being consistent with the Omicron variant. This will be the first confirmed case of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant detected in the United States.
Starting to think that Omicron is nature's covid vaccine for the anti-vaxxers.
sbenois said:
Starting to think that Omicron is nature's covid vaccine for the anti-vaxxers.
It might turn out just like that. Mutations and variants aren't always bad things. One never knows with this whole biology thing.
sbenois said:
Starting to think that Omicron is nature's covid vaccine for the anti-vaxxers.
Hey, are you spending time helping out at the Sears Vax place? What has the traffic been like?
joan_crystal said:
NBC news just announced the 1st confirmed case of Omicron in NJ.
Omicron is already everywhere. We are just catching up to it, sort of.
Holy ****, that's a sharp rise in active cases. A much steeper slope than SA's previous 3 waves. The graph showing deaths has yet to show a bump. That could be validation for the thought sbenois put forward - lots of infections but comparatively few deaths.
Extending that thought, now that we have many months of data collected on vaccinated/nonvaccinated individuals who have contracted COVID which showed such a stark difference, we'll soon be able to compare the illness severity in COVID+ patients who fall into a number of categories. We'll get to see what voluntary measures worked and what accidental or refusal actions did to protect people.
How will these populations fair against COVID variants down the road?
Unvaccinated - no prior COVID infection
Unvaccinated - prior COVID infection (maybe even data on which COVID variant, like delta or omicron)
Vaccinated - J&J, no prior COVID infection
Vaccinated - Pfizer, no prior COVID infection
Vaccinated - Moderna, no prior COVID infection
Vaccinated - J&J, prior COVID infection (maybe even data on which COVID variant, like delta or omicron)
Vaccinated - Pfizer, prior COVID infection (maybe even data on which COVID variant, like delta or omicron)
Vaccinated - Moderna, prior COVID infection (maybe even data on which COVID variant, like delta or omicron)
Astra Zenica and other vaccines produced around the world will also be vital for finally understanding this virus' vulnerabilities.
I should add that other countries are now showing sharp rises in daily new COVID cases, not just SA. Like yahooyahoo said, we're just now realizing what has been spreading for a while now.
While a nice factorial design study of all those combinations would be so informative, COVID data collections don't seem collect the information in a standardized way due to our disjointed medical systems. I hope that hasn't totally compromised the ability to do this type of research, but I'm doubtful we'll see a report that shows very clear-cut results.
I was thinking there is a timing issue.
This variant may so infective that everyone will be immunized over a short time span. Immunized at the same time by infection or vaccination.
Effectively a herd immunity. If that immunity lasts two months then the virus may die out.
ps. - maybe the new mantra should be don't wear a mask. We want all unvaccinated and possible breakthroughs to infected at the same time.
Don't know about dying out. Omicron may represent the downshift from pandemic to endemic. The Spanish Flu didn't go away. It became the ordinary flu. I've been reading consistently good things about the relative mildness of Omicron. I don't understand the science but there's talk of it 's mutations making it more like an ordinary cold.
RTrent said:
I was thinking there is a timing issue.
This variant may so infective that everyone will be immunized over a short time span. Immunized at the same time by infection or vaccination.
Effectively a herd immunity. If that immunity lasts two months then the virus may die out.
ps. - maybe the new mantra should be don't wear a mask. We want all unvaccinated and possible breakthroughs to infected at the same time.
Inadvertent herd immunity. Plus, a virus will live longer and reproduce more if its host stays alive.
That article Dave posted refers to a similar pattern that happened about 100 years ago with that flu pandemic. We are still urged to get flu vaccine boosters each year though. Maybe it will be feasible to bundle in a COVID booster each year but that definitely remains to be seen.
It feels weird to hope people get infected. A less harmful virus but still.
bub said:
Don't know about dying out. Omicron may represent the downshift from pandemic to endemic. The Spanish Flu didn't go away. It became the ordinary flu. I've been reading consistently good things about the relative mildness of Omicron. I don't understand the science but there's talk of it 's mutations making it more like an ordinary cold.
This is the best case scenario. COVID becomes more mild like a cold or the flu.
We are never getting rid of COVID.
I don't want to be a Debbie Downer but am going to moderate this optimism a bit.
Let's say that Omicron is a whole lot less severe than Delta etc. We all sure hope so!*
But let's say that it is as contagious as you are thinking about and literally everyone gets it.
If that's the case - even if a small percentage of Omicron cases are "severe" we'll see a huge number of hospitalizations & deaths. Basic arithmetic at work.
Of course if no cases of Omicron are severe then the above logic works - but what are the odds of that, do you think? Re Spanish flu - sure, it got milder, but people die of flu every year. If literally everyone got the flu in a given year, the death toll would be staggering.
----------------
*But those data are still preliminary - we need to wait a couple of weeks before we can breathe a sigh of relief. We need to see what happens when older / sicker people get it, and what happens 10-14 days out.
PeterWick said:
Inadvertent herd immunity. Plus, a virus will live longer and reproduce more if its host stays alive.
That article Dave posted refers to a similar pattern that happened about 100 years ago with that flu pandemic. We are still urged to get flu vaccine boosters each year though. Maybe it will be feasible to bundle in a COVID booster each year but that definitely remains to be seen.
It feels weird to hope people get infected. A less harmful virus but still.
Better to get infected with a mild variant and to get this done with. If you're not a hermit you will be infected if you're not immune when there is no herd immunity.
If we have herd immunity the immunized herd may protect the few left who are at risk.
Epidemic flu was around long before the 1918 Spanish flu. It was often referred to as the grippe.
My sense is that a public health policy of allowing everyone to get infected is a cruel method of dealing with the pandemic. As noted above, even if the covid variant is relatively mild, then tens of thousands of people will still die. And because we have a very effective vaccine, this death toll is totally unnecessary. So, the message still has to be, "Get Vaccinated."
sbenois said:
Starting to think that Omicron is nature's covid vaccine for the anti-vaxxers.
If the infections are mild, though, how durable and strong is the immune response? On of the confounding attributes in looking at vaccine-induced immunity vs infection-acquired immunity, IIUC, is that infection-acquired immunity can be extremely variable given the lack of control over the "dose" one receives.
Rentals
-
Huge Brand New construction Apartment in 2 family home with 4 bedrooms 3 bathrooms
4 Bd | 3Full Ba
$4,500
Sponsored Business
Promote your business here - Businesses get highlighted throughout the site and you can add a deal.
Remdesivir hasn't performed as well as we'd hoped.
https://www.science.org/content/article/very-very-bad-look-remdesivir-first-fda-approved-covid-19-drug
---------------------
Here's the list of drugs in use against COVID. There are a number of them that are used because well, ****, we have to try something. Okay, that's a little harsh but when a patient winds up in the hospital and they're at risk of dying off-label usage is sometimes all that's left as the patient is put on a ventilator/O2 and tries to hang on. Drugs that are already FDA-approved for something else can be tried in off-label use cases.
Other drugs besides remdesivir and various monoclonal antibodies that haven't been discredited like hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin:
- molnupiravir - antiviral that may get EUA soon. Clinical trials don' show great results but it's better than nothing.
- Paxlovid - clinical trials showed good results, enough so that experts said they could be stopped and they should apply for EUA.
- Vitamin D - patients with low levels are at higher risk of severe illness so taking it for prevention might help
- Vitamin C - a shot in the dark, given in an IV. Not really proven to be helpful but not harmful
- fluvoxamine (an SSRI antidepressant) - helps some patients. It has anti-inflammatory effects in some for some as yet uncharacterized action
- tocilizumab (monoclonal antibody for autoimmune diseases)
- convalescent plasma from COVID survivors - mixed results
- baricitinib and remdesivir (EUA)
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/treatments-for-covid-19
- ibuprofen and acetaminophen are used to help ride out symptoms but don't directly attack the virus
- dexamethasone (corticosteroid that has shown some success because of its anti-inflammatory actions and helps protect against collateral damage of an all-out immune response/cytokine storm)
- anticoagulants like heparin and others are used to prevent serious harm from the blood clots that COVID patients get. Those cause most of the end-organ damage.