Election results?
FilmCarp said:
You are missing the gains. A whole lot of local offices in Texas switched over to Democrats. We never had a shot at the Senate but people chose to hope that the numbers were wrong. Florida is a drag, but it means that half of the voters there were willing to vote Democratic. Wisconsin is a gain, and getting the NY Senate helps. Remember, redistricting is soon. These gains matter.
The gains are definitely important. But it's still damn depressing that human slime like Cruz and Kemp and DiSantos even get one vote. Steve effing King was re-elected.
WTF is wrong with America?
This thread is a study of the concept of a glass half empty or half full.
It was a good day for Democrats. What is now needed is a good plan for the next two years. I would like to see a focus on core Democratic issues with judicious use of House investigations. If there is a focus on impeaching Trump and investigating, say, Kavanaugh, it will backfire. The Kavanaugh hearings hurt Democrats.
Trying to impeach Trump would be the worst possible course of action. They don't have the bites, and Pence is smart enough to keep quiet and get elected. The left needs Trump overdoing everything.
The most historic result from last night may be realized on November 27th if Mississippi elects its first African American Senator since Reconstruction:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/espy-overtime?refcode=sm110718
I agree impeachment would be a mistake. But who knows what Mueller has already? I joked about it before but what would happen if there was damning evidence?
The House would feel compelled to act but what would the Senate do? They would have to hold the trial if the House voted to impeach but it would be his own party controlling the proceedings. If the evidence was overwhelming and they failed to convict him what would that day about the system of checks and balances?
If they did convict, what then? That really frightens me. Trump and Fox News have his base all fired up that news coverage can't be trusted and there's a deep state controlling everything. I honestly don't think an armed insurrection would be out of the question. And there are lots of people with lots of powerful semiautomatic weapons out there.
Maybe I'm getting overly worked up.
The point is there's a lot more work to do. Some of it entails organizing, voter registration, going after downballot elections and the like. Some of it involves judicious use of congressional investigational power.
Some of it is going to involve trying to spread the progressive message to people who right now are frightened of it. And that's probably the hardest part, because it means we can't just dismiss the people who don't hold our political beliefs as idiots or horrible people. (Well, some of them are). They're our fellow citizens and some of them are going to be open to voting a different way in 2020.
tjohn said:
It was a good day for Democrats. What is now needed is a good plan for the next two years. I would like to see a focus on core Democratic issues with judicious use of House investigations. If there is a focus on impeaching Trump and investigating, say, Kavanaugh, it will backfire. The Kavanaugh hearings hurt Democrats.
Apparently the Democrats plan to pass a bunch of bills to force the Senate to vote on issues that are popular among both Democrats and Republicans. They have plans to push for lower costs on prescriptions and for infrastructure spending among others.
None of that means they can't also investigate the Trump crime family. As they should, as part of their oversight responsibility. Impeachment would be a waste of time because there's no chance of conviction, no matter what Trump might be discovered to have done. But there's no reason they shouldn't be investigating allegations of impropriety (of which there are many).
mrincredible said:
I agree impeachment would be a mistake. But who knows what Mueller has already? I joked about it before but what would happen if there was damning evidence?
The House would feel compelled to act but what would the Senate do? They would have to hold the trial if the House voted to impeach but it would be his own party controlling the proceedings. If the evidence was overwhelming and they failed to convict him what would that day about the system of checks and balances?
Mueller is required to submit his confidential reports to the Justice Department. He is not allowed to release it to anyone else. Doing so would make him criminally liable.
Before today, they would have been submitted to Rod Rosenstein. Now the recipient will be our new acting AG who has not recused himself.
The reports may never see the day of light outside of Justice.
Congress, like the House, can subpoena. But the executive can simply refuse all congressional subpoenas. The recourse would then be for congress to hold those refusing in contempt. The problem is that contempt citations have to be prosecuted by the Justice Dept. Absent impeachment, congress is powerless if the Justice Dept does the presidents bidding by refusing to prosecute executive violations.
Suppose a House Committee as part of an investigation issues a subpoena to a former Trump official and that person refuses to comply. If the Congress then holds that person in contempt don't they then need the cooperation of the Justice Department to prosecute that person? What if the Justice Department refuses to cooperate? What result?
In a State that Trump carried by a large margin he campaigned for the Republican Candidate and actually called the Democratic incumbent "A piece of garbage". Said "piece of garbage" will be returning to Washington.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/415359-tester-wins-third-senate-term-in-montana
BG9 said:
....Mueller is required to submit his confidential reports to the Justice Department. He is not allowed to release it to anyone else. Doing so would make him criminally liable.
Before today, they would have been submitted to Rod Rosenstein. Now the recipient will be our new acting AG who has not recused himself.
The reports may never see the day of light outside of Justice. ....
But Muller can still issue indictments. He has been doing that all along and without permission of the A.G. or Rosenstein.
it wasn’t that good a day. Despite the behavior of the president, he held onto more seats than did his predecessors. That does not bode well for the likelihood of a second term for Trump.
And I’ll agree it’s pretty depressing that a man like Cruz can be re- elected.
Even worse that FL voted against gun control after what happened there. It’s sickening. My heart broke for all the Parkland parents and students last night.
Rachel Maddow had a list of House Districts where Trump strongly supported the Republican who then lost to the Democrat.
One was the District formerly represented by Appalachian Trail Blazer Mark Sanford
What happens when the House requests his tax returns? Does that request go to the IRS or to Trump himself? If to the IRS, is there any way to block it?
drummerboy said:
What happens when the House requests his tax returns? Does that request go to the IRS or to Trump himself. If to the IRS, is there any way to block it?
The request goes to the IRS. The Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin, would make the decision. If he refuses, there would be a long legal battle. Mnuchin has already said that if a request is made, he would discuss it with legal counsel. My guess is that Mnuchin would try to block it.
eta - 26 U.S. Code Section 6103 (f) (1)
cramer said:
drummerboy said:The request goes to the IRS. The Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin, would make the decision. If he refuses, there would be a long legal battle. Mnuchin has already said that if a request is made, he would discuss it with legal counsel. My guess is that Mnuchin would try to block it.
What happens when the House requests his tax returns? Does that request go to the IRS or to Trump himself. If to the IRS, is there any way to block it?
Thanks.
We're getting ahead of ourselves. What happens between now and the end of the year.
There's a "lame duck" GOP-controlled House. Who knows what they may try to ram through?
ml1 said:
tjohn said:... there's no chance of conviction, no matter what Trump might be discovered to have done.
It was a good day for Democrats. What is now needed is a good plan for the next two years. I would like to see a focus on core Democratic issues with judicious use of House investigations. If there is a focus on impeaching Trump and investigating, say, Kavanaugh, it will backfire. The Kavanaugh hearings hurt Democrats.
I’m not sure I agree with this. The GOP got their tax cut and the Supreme Court. Immigrants are an evil threat to this nation. Educated elites have no place in government. Yesterday’s election strengthened their control of the Senate. If the GOP kicked Trump to the curb what would they lose? Is there anything Pence would not give them that Trump would? It would be seen by some as a moderate mea-culpa, but If the instability, personal attacks, and blatant stupidity were eliminated, the GOP could accomplish a lot more of their agenda.
I fear that the Dems impeach at their own peril specifically because he may be convicted by the GOP Senate.
Republican senators won't convict because they fear the wrath of the cult.
ml1 said:
Republican senators won't convict because they fear the wrath of the cult.
Yep. I think he's got a base that may be a minority in the party but they're the most fired up. They're the people who will carry that fervor to the primaries.
There is an interesting development in the Arizona Senate race. There are apparently a large number of mail-in ballots that will be posted today. Kyrsten Sinema (D) could potentially move into the lead with those ballots.
Apparently the Republican party organizations in some of the counties are suing the state recorders over the way these mail-in ballots are being verified. A hearing is scheduled for Friday morning.
I know the Senate will be Republican for the next two years at least. But the 2020 election is the next chance to flip it Blue. If Sinema wins this election it's incrementally easier to change control of the chamber.
Problem with Pelosi is that she's a smart strategist and a giant fundraiser. What's not to demonize for the GOP?
Well it seems like Florida is unsettled but Arizona (ARIZONA Y'ALL) is inching toward a Democratic Senator!
Again, even with the clear Republican majority in the Senate this has implications for two years from now.
Andy Kim is looking more and more likely to officially win NJ-3. They need to finish counting the provisional ballots.
There has been some arguing about whether this is all a glass half full or half empty for democrats. I think it's half a glass of water after two years in the desert.
I think if the Democrats are smart, they won't go for impeachment absent serious charges but will instead act as a legitimate check on Baby Trump. His resulting temper tantrums (I don't know if I can survive a two year tantrum, but I digress) will most likely cost him support.
mrincredible said:
ml1 said:Yep. I think he's got a base that may be a minority in the party but they're the most fired up. They're the people who will carry that fervor to the primaries.
Republican senators won't convict because they fear the wrath of the cult.
His base is a majority of the republican party at the moment. They are a minority of the electorate, assuming no further voter suppression.
mrincredible said:
There has been some arguing about whether this is all a glass half full or half empty for democrats. I think it's half a glass of water after two years in the desert.
They picked up about 30 House seats for the best showing since Watergate and with Districts gerrymandered by the Republicans. They lost three Senators in very, very Red States. It was a fluke that those States had Dem Senators; North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana. They may also lose Florida. They picked up Nevada and look like they will pick up Arizona. Considering that there were far more Senate seats held by Dems than held by republicans up for Election the Dems did very well. The spin from the Republicans and some others on Election Night that the results were "mixed" was just spin and has changed significantly over the last 6 days.
Glass is more than half full.
Two years ago, 2018 looked like a total disaster in the making for Dems in the Senate. That they almost held even is a remarkable achievement.
LOST said:
They picked up about 30 House seats for the best showing since Watergate and with Districts gerrymandered by the Republicans. ....
The 30 has now gone to 34 and may go as high as 40. (N.P.R., this morning.)
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Which I wrote above, the many offices switched. Democrats got a lot and now we can only hope Pelosi, et al., will not screw up the opportunity.