Did the CDC jump the gun?

From a WAPO article on the new mask guidance.  

Although the vaccines remain highly effective at preventing severe disease and death, they do not form an impenetrable shield. New data suggests that people who are vaccinated and have breakthrough infections from the delta variant may have as much viral load as a person who is unvaccinated, which suggests they may be able to spread it to others, Walensky said. Such transmission did not happen in any significant way with earlier versions of the virus.

So, we are pretty close to day 500 of flatten the curve after 6 months of "shaddup and take the vaccine" when anyone dare asks questions and we are going back to the old methods.  And nobody will question leadership or the narrative.   We're going to find a way to blame the unvaccinated aren't we?   And the coercion will increase, despite the clear flaws in the treatment we all will have to take.


PVW said:

terp said:

 So how often could we need boosters? 

I don't understand your question. Some vaccines give you lifetime immunity, others don't -- if it turns out that covid vaccines need boosters, why would this be strange? As for how often we'll need them, I don't believe anyone can answer that yet, but again, why is this strange?

BTW: my understanding of the way vaccines work is that it is like a wanted sign for your immune system. What I don't understand is how focusing on the most conspicuous part of the virus would offer better immunity than being exposed to all aspects of the molecule. Please explain.

We do this all the time, though. For instance, I'd never been to Los Angeles. Then a few years ago I ended up flying through LAX. When I looked out my window I saw the Hollywood sign, and knew that was Los Angeles. Recognizing a whole from a smaller part isn't so strange, is it?

 Exactly how many vaccines require multiple annual boosters?


ml1 said:

terp said:

 Judge not lest ye be judged.

 I'm totally OK with being judged. 

 In that event, you're a terrible busy body who is incapable of understanding that there are perspectives different from your own that are not evil, racist or stupid.  You have this affliction so severely that I think it might be a disorder. 


terp said:

 Exactly how many vaccines have you taken that require multiple annual boosters?

 I get the flu shot every year.


PVW said:

terp said:

 Exactly how many vaccines have you taken that require multiple annual boosters?

 I get the flu shot every year.

 How many doses do you get every year?


terp said:

 How many doses do you get every year?

Ah, I see that by "multiple annual boosters" you didn't mean a booster each year, but more than one per year. Well so far as I'm aware we haven't had a flu season where a new, far more contagious variant emerged from when I first got my shot to before the next year. But if we ever do have a flu season like that, and we have the technology to quickly make new flu vaccine doses targeting the new variant, I can't think of any reason I wouldn't get that new shot when it was ready. I don't understand your objection here.


PVW said:

terp said:

 How many doses do you get every year?

Ah, I see that by "multiple annual boosters" you didn't mean a booster each year, but more than one per year. Well so far as I'm aware we haven't had a flu season where a new, far more contagious variant emerged from when I first got my shot to before the next year. But if we ever do have a flu season like that, and we have the technology to quickly make new flu vaccine doses targeting the new variant, I can't think of any reason I wouldn't get that new shot when it was ready. I don't understand your objection here.

 No objection.  Just impressed with how absurd things can get while you will mindlessly go along.


terp said:

 No objection.  Just impressed with how absurd things can get while you will mindlessly go along.

Well your point is flying right past me I'm afraid. You said "my understanding of the way vaccines work is that it is like a wanted sign for your immune system." Isn't reasonable that if the thing wanted changes, the sign has to change? How is that absurd?


terp said:

 In that event, you're a terrible busy body who is incapable of understanding that there are perspectives different from your own that are not evil, racist or stupid.  You have this affliction so severely that I think it might be a disorder. 

Thanks for your input. I'll take it under advisement and combine it with all the other feedback I've received in my life. 


PVW said:

terp said:

 No objection.  Just impressed with how absurd things can get while you will mindlessly go along.

Well your point is flying right past me I'm afraid. You said "my understanding of the way vaccines work is that it is like a wanted sign for your immune system." Isn't reasonable that if the thing wanted changes, the sign has to change? How is that absurd?

 I just have never heard of a vaccine that needs this many boosters.   Given your deep knowledge of the immune system and on the specifics of vaccines, do you care to explain why natural immunity maintains effectiveness even as the virus mutates?


ml1 said:

terp said:

 In that event, you're a terrible busy body who is incapable of understanding that there are perspectives different from your own that are not evil, racist or stupid.  You have this affliction so severely that I think it might be a disorder. 

Thanks for your input. I'll take it under advisement and combine it with all the other feedback I've received in my life. 

 Glad I could help.


terp said:

 I just have never heard of a vaccine that needs this many boosters.   Given your deep knowledge of the immune system and on the specifics of vaccines, do you care to explain why natural immunity maintains effectiveness even as the virus mutates?

 Yes, I saw the link you posted. That's the first I've seen of that and I'll be curious to see what further data emerges on it. I'll put my cards on the table and say I'll be very surprised if that holds up.

As for never having heard of a vaccine that needs that many boosters, I'll note that so far we're only talking about potentially one, and that this seems tied the emergence of the delta variant, so it's not really accurate to talk as if the effectiveness has waned -- the virus changed (also worth noting that the vaccines still seem very effective at preventing serious illness and death -- remember that even mild and asymptomatic infections get counted in the case).

Another point to consider is that this is a global pandemic, meaning there are millions of hosts and billions of potential hosts, each one a new environment applying different evolutionary pressure on the virus. I'm not sure there are any other viruses currently circulating that have so many opportunities to evolve into new variants so quickly -- certainly not during our life times (maybe the 1918 flu?).


PVW said:

 Yes, I saw the link you posted. That's the first I've seen of that and I'll be curious to see what further data emerges on it. I'll put my cards on the table and say I'll be very surprised if that holds up.

Even if it does hold up, what are the practical implications?


terp said:

 Glad I could help.

 A number of dubious assumptions, but hearing your perception is helpful. 


terp said:

BTW: my understanding of the way vaccines work is that it is like a wanted sign for your immune system.  What I don't understand is how focusing on the most conspicuous part of the virus would offer better immunity than being exposed to all aspects of the molecule.  Please explain.

 When it came to determining the most important target for antibodies, they examined the antibodies recovered from the plasma of COVID-19 fatalities AND survivors. They found that those who survived and had a lighter course of illness had produced antibodies against the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. Antibodies were also produced against other sites on the spike protein as well as elsewhere on the exterior of the virus but they found that if a person did not produce antibodies that blocked the spike protein's ability to bind the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), they had a more serious and often fatal illness.

Thus, purifying the components of the spike protein to find the amino acid sequence was the first step. They figured out how much of the spike protein was necessary for that amino acid sequence to fold into the mature 3-D (tertiary) structure similar to how the spike protein is normally formed, sitting on the outside of the virus. Then, they determined the portion of the messenger RNA that codes for that string of amino acids so they could isolate it and plug it into the liposomes (delivery system). That way, the vaccines induced the production of the important part of the spike protein to attack.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmolb.2021.671633/full

This is one of the many research articles that came out amidst the furious effort to find the best part to attack. It turns out that keeping it from binding ACE on the surface of our cells was the best mode of attack so far.

The whole virus is deadly. Only presenting the key portion to recognize and block was the best approach.


terp said:

So, we are pretty close to day 500 of flatten the curve 

 All we had to was stay away from each other for 2 weeks. Collectively. 14 whole days. Hey, 21 at most. But we couldn’t. And here we are.


ridski said:

terp said:

So, we are pretty close to day 500 of flatten the curve 

 All we had to was stay away from each other for 2 weeks. Collectively. 14 whole days. Hey, 21 at most. But we couldn’t. And here we are.

 Absolutely.  And don't forget. THEY HATE US FOR OUR FREEDOM!


bikefixed said:

 When it came to determining the most important target for antibodies, they examined the antibodies recovered from the plasma of COVID-19 fatalities AND survivors. They found that those who survived and had a lighter course of illness had produced antibodies against the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. Antibodies were also produced against other sites on the spike protein as well as elsewhere on the exterior of the virus but they found that if a person did not produce antibodies that blocked the spike protein's ability to bind the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), they had a more serious and often fatal illness.

Thus, purifying the components of the spike protein to find the amino acid sequence was the first step. They figured out how much of the spike protein was necessary for that amino acid sequence to fold into the mature 3-D (tertiary) structure similar to how the spike protein is normally formed, sitting on the outside of the virus. Then, they determined the portion of the messenger RNA that codes for that string of amino acids so they could isolate it and plug it into the liposomes (delivery system). That way, the vaccines induced the production of the important part of the spike protein to attack.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmolb.2021.671633/full

This is one of the many research articles that came out amidst the furious effort to find the best part to attack. It turns out that keeping it from binding ACE on the surface of our cells was the best mode of attack so far.

The whole virus is deadly. Only presenting the key portion to recognize and block was the best approach.

 BTW, bikefixed, I want to commend you for the effort you have been taking to research and present the science behind this in as close to layman’s terms as is possible, and with the patience of a saint to boot.


The variants that have popped up have had mutations that alter the function and recognizability of the spike protein. Some were not important at all. Some caused the virus to die on its own. Some changed its ability, for better or worse, to bind ACE. The more dangerous ones survived, like the ones that came about before the delta variant, but they didn't take hold like that one does. People catch it more easily and a person winds up with a much higher viral load, an indicator of how serious a case a person gets.

Some of those changes caused by the mutations can make that new version of the spike protein's receptor-binding domain harder to recognize by the current vaccines' antibodies. THAT is one of the reasons we may need not just a booster of the same vaccine but a whole new **** vaccine, much like how the influenza vaccine needs to be reformulated each year. There are several strains of influenza that circulate the globe, each waxing and waning over time, and the WHO desperately tries to make the right guess each year so flu doesn't kill thousands more than it usually does. 

The more unvaccinated people COVID-19 invades, the higher the risk of developing a new variant. Who knows? Other ones coming down the line may make delta look like a rank amateur.


terp said:

ridski said:

terp said:

So, we are pretty close to day 500 of flatten the curve 

 All we had to was stay away from each other for 2 weeks. Collectively. 14 whole days. Hey, 21 at most. But we couldn’t. And here we are.

 Absolutely.  And don't forget. THEY HATE US FOR OUR FREEDOM!

 Quite.

Coronavirus doesn’t hate you. It just wants to multiply and survive, just like the rest of us. It can’t do that without the ability to transfer from host to host. Increase the space between hosts and its ability to transfer and multiply is diminished. Isolated, it is powerless, unable to jump to a new host, it falls flat on its face. 

But something something “sheeple” and “I read on Facebook that” and here we are.


PVW said:

terp said:

 Exactly how many vaccines have you taken that require multiple annual boosters?

 I get the flu shot every year.

Uhhh, tetanus anyone??

Check this link for vaccines needing more than one dose, including some that are helpful even after a person has had the illness a vaccine is for. 

https://www.downtownmedical.com/blog/immunizations-and-boosters-every-adult-should-have


ridski said:

terp said:

ridski said:

terp said:

So, we are pretty close to day 500 of flatten the curve 

 All we had to was stay away from each other for 2 weeks. Collectively. 14 whole days. Hey, 21 at most. But we couldn’t. And here we are.

 Absolutely.  And don't forget. THEY HATE US FOR OUR FREEDOM!

 Quite.

Coronavirus doesn’t hate you. It just wants to multiply and survive, just like the rest of us. It can’t do that without the ability to transfer from host to host. Increase the space between hosts and its ability to transfer and multiply is diminished. Isolated, it is powerless, unable to jump to a new host, it falls flat on its face. 

But something something “sheeple” and “I read on Facebook that” and here we are.

Hilarious.   I was commenting on your assertion that : 

All we had to was stay away from each other for 2 weeks. Collectively. 14 whole days. Hey, 21 at most. But we couldn’t. And here we are.

Care to show your work?  That is quite an assertion.


I don't think flu shots are considered "boosters", are they?


drummerboy said:

I don't think flu shots are considered "boosters", are they?

 even if boosters are necessary why is this a terrible thing? Just get another shot and boost your immunity. It certainly doesn't seem like a compelling reason not to be vaccinated in the first place. 


ml1 said:

It certainly doesn't seem like a compelling reason not to be vaccinated in the first place. 

Unless someone can explain what I’m missing, neither would more evidence that natural immunity is stronger. 


bikefixed said:

The variants that have popped up have had mutations that alter the function and recognizability of the spike protein. Some were not important at all. Some caused the virus to die on its own. Some changed its ability, for better or worse, to bind ACE. The more dangerous ones survived, like the ones that came about before the delta variant, but they didn't take hold like that one does. People catch it more easily and a person winds up with a much higher viral load, an indicator of how serious a case a person gets.

Some of those changes caused by the mutations can make that new version of the spike protein's receptor-binding domain harder to recognize by the current vaccines' antibodies. THAT is one of the reasons we may need not just a booster of the same vaccine but a whole new **** vaccine, much like how the influenza vaccine needs to be reformulated each year. There are several strains of influenza that circulate the globe, each waxing and waning over time, and the WHO desperately tries to make the right guess each year so flu doesn't kill thousands more than it usually does. 

The more unvaccinated people COVID-19 invades, the higher the risk of developing a new variant. Who knows? Other ones coming down the line may make delta look like a rank amateur.

 There were people who said there were dangers to rolling out the vaccine during a pandemic.  For the reason that there would naturally be many unvaccinated people for quite some time giving the vupjrus a chance to mutate by infecting unvaccinated and vaccinated people.  Further, during this time the feeling was that the risk that the virus would mutate in a way to allow it to more effectively infect the vaccinated was elevated,  Do you agree that was an inherent risk?  I also heard some concerns that tje vaccines could cause antibody dependent enhancement, and that they saw some of this in the animal trials.

Additionally, I would note that the delta variant seems to have emerged in India, which does not seem to make a good case that it was a result of anything the above.  Would a better strategy have been to vaccinate the most vulnerable globally rather than focusing on getting everyone vaccinated in rich countries?


terp said:

Hilarious.   I was commenting on your assertion that : 

All we had to was stay away from each other for 2 weeks. Collectively. 14 whole days. Hey, 21 at most. But we couldn’t. And here we are.

Care to show your work?  That is quite an assertion.

 How long does coronavirus survive outside a host?

ETA: 72 hours for the virus to die on all surfaces. 5 days for anyone with the virus to either develop full COVID or remain asymptomatic. 2-3 weeks for those hospitalized to either die or survive, and for those in isolation to burn through the effects of the virus and no longer be contagious.

But here we are.


drummerboy said:

I don't think flu shots are considered "boosters", are they?

 It might be that COVID vaccines will have the same pattern of use as influenza vaccines if indeed they're necessary.


The dangers you purport, terp, about viruses adapting via mutations and natural selection are real. But uhhh, COVID-19 was killing millions across the globe and still is. 

Who gives a **** where variants show up? They come from a person who was unable to prevent the virus from reproducing in their body. 

If a COVID variant comes from a vaccinated person, so *****ing what? What percentage of vaccinated people don't *D*I*E* from COVID and DON'T pass it along to others? I'm doing a lot of reporting actual facts whereas you're talking about what some people have said. I'd appreciate it if you provided more than the same kind of throw away comment our former president used when he was telling mistruths.

And "just the most vulnerable" ?  Nope. Anyone who contacts it is a virus factory with an RNA virus. An RNA virus does not have restriction enzymes workng on it as a sort of proofreader. That makes them likely to produce variants because of mutations.

More than just the most vulnerable die from COVID. 





terp said:

BTW: my understanding of the way vaccines work is that it is like a wanted sign for your immune system.  What I don't understand is how focusing on the most conspicuous part of the virus would offer better immunity than being exposed to all aspects of the molecule.  Please explain.

 A virus is a package of genetic material inside a protein shell. The body's antibodies are produced in reaction to the protein. A vaccine "jump starts" that process, so the antibodies are produced before the virus even gets there.

So the statement, "What I don't understand is how focusing on the most conspicuous part of the virus would offer better immunity than being exposed to all aspects of the molecule", isn't the right way to ask about viruses and vaccines.


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