children were ALWAYS at risk. Children died early on, many got that weird severe inflammatory complication...i forget what its called....and many more would carry the virus without symptoms and could have killed their parents/grandparents/others. there is no way there is 85% immunity. only about 10% have tested positive, maybe another 10% had it....but among those, many also got the vaccine so you can't count them 2x. And many died so you can't count them as immune. I would guess the rate of partial protection is about 65%.
Since about March, most symptomatic people were tested and counted. Many tested were asymptotic but positive...1 theory is that about half the cases are asymptomatic....but many of those got tested....so at worst we likely have TWICE as many total cases as known positives which puts it around 20% of NJ
and then look at the Yankees, they got JJ and got sick, not only that they had the ability to spread the virus.
Until early this year cases were way undercounted, using positive tests as the actual number of cases. Estimates for uncounted cases were higher than missing 3 out of 4 until recently.
How do you still not understand that the children who might not be at risk can still pass the virus along to older folks who are at much higher risk? Also did you not realize that there are adults in the schools as well?
I am very sad that my daughter missed her senior year of high school. But she willingly stayed remote (our school was hybrid) and limited interactions to protect the people in her life. She was not concerned about herself! She could have been like some of her friends who continued to behave like irresponsible teenagers, getting themselves and others sick and in a couple of cases sending parents or grandparents to the hospital. But hey, immunity!
Can you tell me where you got the 85% immunity number? Or did you make it up?
Assuming we missed only 2/3 of the positive cases over the last year and 5 months that would be 3 million people who have been infected in NJ total. With 55% of the population with at least one vaccination that is 5 million people. That is about 8 million people out of 9 million +/-. All the advice we have had about children in schools is that they and teachers are just as safe or safer there than anywhere else. It is too bad teachers didn't follow the science. Instead of being in a place just as safe as anywhere else they hung the children out to dry to suffer isolation, depression, lack of social contact, lack of support services they get in school and losing a year of school.
Until early this year cases were way undercounted, using positive tests as the actual number of cases. Estimates for uncounted cases were higher than missing 3 out of 4 until recently.
Just checking CDC site for Covid deaths for children 0-17 - 194 in 2020 and 93 in 2021. Numbers for the flu are around 300 per year. Car crashes are about 4000 a year. Yet somehow we allow our children to go to school during flu season and we allow them to be in cars on the road.
Until early this year cases were way undercounted, using positive tests as the actual number of cases. Estimates for uncounted cases were higher than missing 3 out of 4 until recently.
Just checking CDC site for Covid deaths for children 0-17 - 194 in 2020 and 93 in 2021. Numbers for the flu are around 300 per year. Car crashes are about 4000 a year. Yet somehow we allow our children to go to school during flu season and we allow them to be in cars on the road.
Look up the word "vector" and then come back and tell me we were wrong to close the schools
Assuming we missed only 2/3 of the positive cases over the last year and 5 months that would be 3 million people who have been infected in NJ total. With 55% of the population with at least one vaccination that is 5 million people. That is about 8 million people out of 9 million +/-.
I’ll see your assumption and raise you an assumption: There’s overlap between residents who have been infected and residents who have gotten at least one vaccine shot, so adding 3 plus 5 to get 8 is bad math.
so its okay for children to die when preventable as long as its a low number...where is a RELIABLE source that supports the claim there are so many unreported cases?
covid was riskier than the flu until recently. it is still a worse virus, we don't have such as widespread post flu syndrome that we have with post covid. and with the flu, there are always vaccines available...even for kids so people have a chance to protect themselves in school. even in bad years for the flu vaccine, there is still some protection.
I don't have school age children so no direct skin in the game that way. But I've always been puzzled over the course of the pandemic by people on the one hand saying schools were perfectly safe and news stories, and direct stories from parents and teachers, on the other about school outbreaks and closings. I don't know what the truth is here.
You know, all of this second guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking is all kind of absurd.
We were faced with a brand new, virulent and deadly virus. While it was killing people and overwhelming our hospitals, science was trying to figure out how it worked. The prudent and sensible thing was always to err on the side of caution.
Second guessers can all STFU as far as I'm concerned.
Until early this year cases were way undercounted, using positive tests as the actual number of cases. Estimates for uncounted cases were higher than missing 3 out of 4 until recently.
where are your "estimates" coming from. You keep repeating this so-called statistic without providing any authoritative source to back it up. If you had any evidence, why would you not cite it?
as for other evidence of how many unreported COVID-19 cases the state might have been missing, I'll point out this info from covidactnow.org and the NY Times. If 3/4 of infections were going undetected, how is it even possible that for most of the past year, the positive test rate in NJ was below 10%, with roughly 50,000 tests being administered every day?
Your assertion doesn't pass even the most basic sniff test.
so its okay for children to die when preventable as long as its a low number...where is a RELIABLE source that supports the claim there are so many unreported cases?
covid was riskier than the flu until recently. it is still a worse virus, we don't have such as widespread post flu syndrome that we have with post covid. and with the flu, there are always vaccines available...even for kids so people have a chance to protect themselves in school. even in bad years for the flu vaccine, there is still some protection.
It was never riskier for children - ever. Flu and being driven in a car have always been more dangerous for children than Covid
where are your "estimates" coming from. You keep repeating this so-called statistic without providing any authoritative source to back it up. If you had any evidence, why would you not cite it?
as for other evidence of how many unreported COVID-19 cases the state might have been missing, I'll point out this info from covidactnow.org and the NY Times. If 3/4 of infections were going undetected, how is it even possible that for most of the past year, the positive test rate in NJ was below 10%, with roughly 50,000 tests being administered every day?
Your assertion doesn't pass even the most basic sniff test.
Feb.10, 2021 -- Large numbers of COVID-19 cases have been undetected and unreported, which has resulted in severe undercounting of the total number of people who have been infected during the pandemic, according to a new study published Monday in the journal PLOS ONE.
In the U.S., the number of COVID-19 cases is likely 3 times that of reported cases. According to the study, more than 71 million Americans have contracted the virus during the pandemic, and 7 million were infected or potentially contagious last week.
I’ll see your assumption and raise you an assumption: There’s overlap between residents who have been infected and residents who have gotten at least one vaccine shot, so adding 3 plus 5 to get 8 is bad math.
The reason numbers are plummeting so fast is that some high number of people in the state have immunity for one reason or another. Is it 75% or 85% I am not sure. The percentage of adults who have some kind of immunity might well be 85% or higher.
The reason numbers are plummeting so fast is that some high number of people in the state have immunity for one reason or another. Is it 75% or 85% I am not sure. The percentage of adults who have some kind of immunity might well be 85% or higher.
Nothing personal, genial commenter behind the notupset screen name, but the way you throw around numbers, unattributed WebMD excerpts and studies accepted for a fee by PLOS One (this one on the second try) encourages me to move on.
so its okay for children to die when preventable as long as its a low number...where is a RELIABLE source that supports the claim there are so many unreported cases?
covid was riskier than the flu until recently. it is still a worse virus, we don't have such as widespread post flu syndrome that we have with post covid. and with the flu, there are always vaccines available...even for kids so people have a chance to protect themselves in school. even in bad years for the flu vaccine, there is still some protection.
It was never riskier for children - ever. Flu and being driven in a car have always been more dangerous for children than Covid
hey ace, it is riskier based on the fact that there is was no vaccine to help with herd immunity and therefore more people could have it and be transmitting it...it was also riskier because of the complications.
I’ll see your assumption and raise you an assumption: There’s overlap between residents who have been infected and residents who have gotten at least one vaccine shot, so adding 3 plus 5 to get 8 is bad math.
this is the most compelling point regarding the "estimation" of the percentage of immune people in NJ. If 3 out of 4 infected people never knew they were, the overlap between those who were already infected and those who have been vaccinated is likely almost complete. The two groups are most certainly not mutually exclusive.
I was going to say that you have to take into account the overlap between the vaccinated and those recovering. Most people I know who had Covid have since been vaccinated. You can't treat them as entirely separate data groups to come up with a high percentage of people who are now immune. We can hope that there is a big group of unvaccinated, recovered people but the number is unknown right now.
We still don't know if recovering from COVID - 19 gives you immunity from getting it again, especially with the variants out there. NYC had trouble convincing their police officers to get vaccinated even though a significant proportion of the force had recovered from COVID - 19. NYC officials were putting more faith in the vaccines than in any immunity having contracted the disease might provide.
We still don't know if recovering from COVID - 19 gives you immunity from getting it again, especially with the variants out there. NYC had trouble convincing their police officers to get vaccinated even though a significant proportion of the force had recovered from COVID - 19. NYC officials were putting more faith in the vaccines than in any immunity having contracted the disease might provide.
Anecdotally, it seems that it does confer some immunity but not for as long a period of time as the vaccines. And that also may explain the difference in reactions to the vaccines in many cases of those who have had Covid vs those who have not.
Lab leak has always been a likely possibility. But Biden, MSM and social media giants were intent on pretending it was not a possibility because Trump suggested it might be the source. The opposite of journalism and actual "fact" checking. Now MSM and social media giants and Biden are backtracking as more and more evidence comes to light.
Lab leak has always been a likely possibility. But Biden, MSM and social media giants were intent on pretending it was not a possibility because Trump suggested it might be the source. The opposite of journalism and actual "fact" checking. Now MSM and social media giants and Biden are backtracking as more and more evidence comes to light.
what "more and more evidence", exactly?
There's pretty much no evidence pointing to a leak.
Also, since Trump had no evidence at the time he made his claim, there was not much to look into. Those that did look into it, found nothing. So your "anti-Trump" conjecture is just right-wing bullsh.
There's pretty much no evidence pointing to a leak.
Also, since Trump had no evidence at the time he made his claim, there was not much to look into. Those that did look into it, found nothing. So your "anti-Trump" conjecture is just right-wing bullsh.
as the article I linked to indicates, there is no more evidence of a lab leak now than there was a year ago. Which is none. It's only speculation. Should that possibility be investigated? Of course. But an investigation isn't of itself proof of anything.
And Trump was just bullshitting with zero evidence. So even in the unlikely event there's some evidence of a lab leak he won't be "right." It's not being right to make accusations in bad faith with no evidence even if if you do turn out to have guessed correctly.
Until early this year cases were way undercounted, using positive tests as the actual number of cases. Estimates for uncounted cases were higher than missing 3 out of 4 until recently.