Spring Showers (or not) Thread
Wed April 9th
Rain likely this weekend
Today and tomorrow, mostly clear to partly cloudy, highs both days around 50⁰, lows in the upper 30⁰s. Chance of rain overnight Thursday to Friday
Friday, rain likely, especially overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The storm signals we were seeing in some of the models earlier in the week have for the most part faded to less than an inch of rain without high winds
Saturday, rain likely in the morning becoming chance of showers in the afternoon
Sunday cloudy
Highs throughout in the 50⁰s, lows in the 40⁰s
Friday, April 11th
Showers develop this afternoon, becoming a more steady rain overnight. Breezy, with gusts this afternoon and tonight in the mid 20mph range. High upper 40⁰s low around 40⁰
Rain and wind to start off Saturday, rain tapers off to showers as the morning goes on. Showers and breezy most of the day, temps hover around 40⁰
Breezy and clearing Sunday with highs in the mid 50⁰s
Friday, April 18th
Unseasonably warm temps are the headline feature this weekend, especially today and Saturday
Today, high near 70⁰ breezy and mostly clear
Saturday highs in the low 80⁰s (!) and breezy, more clouds, slight chance of a shower overnight
Lows both nights in the 50⁰s
Sunday more seasonal with highs in the mid 60⁰s and overnight lows in the mid 40⁰s
The NWS is reminding us that lake and ocean waters are still quite cold so be extra careful if the warm weather temps you into the water or out on a boat
The first half of next week doesn't look half bad either, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 70⁰s
Hmm, should I follow tradition and wait to put those annuals in the ground. I've defied advice and planted in April, instead of holding off until May.
In the words of Clint Eastwood, "You've gotta ask yourself one question, "Do I feel lucky?"
Morganna said:
Hmm, should I follow tradition and wait to put those annuals in the ground. I've defied advice and planted in April, instead of holding off until May.
In the words of Clint Eastwood, "You've gotta ask yourself one question, "Do I feel lucky?"
A man has got to know his limitations…
Monday April 21
A bit cooler today, highs in the 50⁰s, some showers likely tonight
The rest of the week returns to warmer, highs in the 70⁰s, likely dry and mixed sun and clouds
Overnight lows in the lower 50⁰s throughout
Although we are no longer in drought conditions, we are still in a bit of a water deficit (officially, "abnormally dry")
Also, tree pollen is what's making your eyes itch, it's quite high
Wed April 23rd
The next few days will continue warm and dry with highs in the 70⁰s and overnight lows in the 50⁰s
Overnight Friday and for much of Saturday we expect showers. Still warm, highs in the 70⁰s continue Saturday. Breezy Saturday, clearing Sunday, high Sunday mid 60⁰s
Air quality remains good to moderate as northwest breeze is driving smoke from a wildfire down the shore away from us. Tree pollen though is still high
Thurs April 24th
Wind shifts to the north this morning and should drive off the smoke from the wildfire down the shore. It will not help the tree pollen, though, which remains an issue.
Otherwise, forecast on track for warm and dry today, increasing clouds tomorrow with rain showers overnight Friday and Saturday
Wed April 30th
Breezy and warm today with the winds settling down by late afternoon, high in the low 70⁰s
Tomorrow mostly clear with high in the upper 60⁰s, chance of a shower overnight
Friday a front moves through, probably in the afternoon or early evening, bringing warmer air and a decent chance of showers and even possibly a thunderstorm. High could reach the low 80⁰s, no severe weather or flooding expected
Saturday chance of showers and a very slight chance of a thunderstorm
From that point the models are, to use the technical language from this morning's NWS discussion, "wildly divergent". While there is no severe weather indicated, I could no more accurately tell you if it's going to rain Sunday and Monday from the models or by throwing darts at the wall
Thur May 1
A bit less uncertainty
Today starts chilly but warms to the upper 60⁰s, may get overcast by the end of the day with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight
Friday warmer, high could reach the mid 80⁰s, some sun, some rain possible later in the day, slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and overnight
Saturday cloudy, high near 80⁰, increasing chance of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon and overnight.
Sunday through Wednesday will be unsettled, with periods of rain as a system sets up to flow warm moist air in from the Atlantic. As of now the most likely times for heavy showers or a thunderstorm would be Sunday night and Tuesday late day or overnight but this could change. Rain could be heavy at times
Friday May 2
Today, overcast, chance of showers or a minor thunderstorm this afternoon, high in the low 80⁰s. Tree pollen getting better but still high. Air quality moderate
Tonight, rain likely with a slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday starts out dry, then rain likely in the afternoon and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, high in the low 80⁰s
Then a front sets up that will sit over the area at least until mid week. Daytime overcast and showers throughout, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoons. A steady southeast flow provides continuous moisture from the subtropical Atlantic but is not destabilizing enough for really torrential rainfall except very briefly in a thunderstorm, so flooding risk is low. Highs in the upper 60⁰s/low 70⁰s, breezy at times.
Hmm, looking for a day next week to visit the Cloisters and sit in the courtyards. My favorite spot for inspiration.
max_weisenfeld said:
Friday May 2
Today, overcast, chance of showers or a minor thunderstorm this afternoon, high in the low 80⁰s. Tree pollen getting better but still high. Air quality moderate
Tonight, rain likely with a slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Saturday starts out dry, then rain likely in the afternoon and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, high in the low 80⁰s
Then a front sets up that will sit over the area at least until mid week. Daytime overcast and showers throughout, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoons. A steady southeast flow provides continuous moisture from the subtropical Atlantic but is not destabilizing enough for really torrential rainfall except very briefly in a thunderstorm, so flooding risk is low. Highs in the upper 60⁰s/low 70⁰s, breezy at times.
I just received an email from the health Department telling me that the Health Fair planned for tomorrow from 10 am to 1 pm at DeHart Park will be held outdoors since rain is not expected until later in the day.
Monday May 5
The weather for the first part of the week will be dominated by a slow moving -- very slow moving -- system that will drag rain across the area through Wednesday
Today, rain, becoming steady this afternoon, chance of a thunderstorm. Breezy, too. High in the mid 60⁰s. Rain continues overnight
Tuesday, rain, more episodic (showers) than Monday, possibly another thunderstorm, high again in the mid 60⁰s
Wednesday, showers likely, slight chance of a thunderstorm, high in the 60⁰s. Rain could end by Wed evening
Throughout the period, rain should be light to moderate except in thunderstorms, might see a bit of road and field ponding but flooding is unlikely
Air quality should be decent and pollen counts a bit lower than last week
Although this rain should help in the short term, we are still in an abnormally dry condition as ground water has not been fully replenished
Wed May 7th
Today, partly cloudy, chance of a shower this afternoon, high in the mid 70⁰s
Tomorrow, rain likely, perhaps a thunderstorm, high mid 70⁰s
Showers continue Thursday night and Friday most of the day as the front moves off, high Friday in the low 60⁰s
Saturday and Sunday looking nice, partly sunny, dry, highs in the low to mid 70⁰s
max_weisenfeld said:
Wed May 7th
Today, partly cloudy, chance of a shower this afternoon, high in the mid 70⁰s
Tomorrow, rain likely, perhaps a thunderstorm, high mid 70⁰s
Showers continue Thursday night and Friday most of the day as the front moves off, high Friday in the low 60⁰s
Saturday and Sunday looking nice, partly sunny, dry, highs in the low to mid 70⁰s
Thank you! I hope Saturday holds up as I'm going to be flying out of EWR and hoping that weather doesn't add to the FAA/runway issues there!
Thursday May 8Th
The NWS is advising that some of this afternoon's showers could produce heavy localized rain, leading to local small stream flooding along with road and field ponding
Wed May 14th
Showers continue across the area this morning, possibly heavy at times, and cannot rule out the occasional rumble of thunder. The areas that see the heaviest showers could see an inch or more of rain in the next 24 hours. That's not enough for flooding but road and field ponding is likely. Shower activity will peak between 10am and 8pm.
Showers will continue overnight and into tomorrow. High today in the low to mid 60⁰s, tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs in the lower 70⁰s, with a slight chance of thunder tomorrow in the afternoon
Friday and Saturday warmer, some showers. Clearing Sunday
Friday May 16th
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for the first half of the weekend, then a few nice days
Today, chance of showers, mostly this afternoon, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Warm, with highs in the upper 70⁰s
Saturday, showers and a thunderstorm likely, with a slight chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon or evening that could bring a period of strong gusty wind, high in the low 80⁰s
Clearing Sunday, breezy, wind gusts could reach 30 - 35 mph, cooler, high in the low 70⁰s
Monday and Tuesday look nice, cooler, upper 60⁰s
Monday May 19th
A sunny start to the week, then rain
Today, sunny and breezy again, high in the low 70⁰s
Tuesday, clear and calm, high again in the low 70⁰s
Wednesday and Thursday, rain, cooler with temps in the upper 50⁰s. Steady rain could be moderate and sustained, particularly Wed afternoon and evening, might see some random and field ponding
Showers possible Friday and perhaps Saturday afternoon
Lows throughout in the 50⁰s
Max,
Do you have any thoughts about how the current reduction of 550 NWS staff will affect weather reporting?
It's already having a negative impact on forecasting.
Data collection is falling behind and having a discernible negative effect on the accuracy of the American models like the GFS. Storm prediction is affected, shortening lead times for major impact warnings such as tornadoes. Longer term climate data is not being collected -- these are things that you cannot go back and recreate later if they are not captured in the moment.
Are we in for a stormy couple of days this week? I’m hearing talk of a possible nor’easter? Any thoughts?
Wed May 21st
This morning the dry air is still trying to hold on but light rain will get through at some point, probably before midday. Then light rain and showers becoming moderate rain in the evening and overnight. Breezy, high in the low 50⁰s
Thursday rain and breezy conditions continue, high around 50⁰
Friday, some showers possible as the system moves off. High near 60⁰
Overall, a decent soaking rain, good for the garden, unlikely to cause any significant flooding issues
The weekend is looking pleasant if a bit chilly, partly cloudy, maybe a shower, highs in the 60⁰s
Jaytee said:
Are we in for a stormy couple of days this week? I’m hearing talk of a possible nor’easter? Any thoughts?
There will be a more active pattern east of us, notably Long Island, so you might hear some more dire forecasts on the regional TV and radio. We are unlikely to see the worst of it here
For the first time since last summer, MAPSO is not in a drought or dry condition
Friday May 23
Today, cloudy with a chance of showers and maybe a rumble of thunder in the afternoon as the system moves off. High in the low 60⁰s
Saturday mixed sun and clouds, maybe a shower, low 60⁰s
Sunday a bit warmer and more sun, high upper 60⁰s
Memorial day sun, warmer, high low 70⁰s
Nighttime lows around 50⁰s throughout
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Two advisories:
Today, windy, gusts up to 40mph. Would not be surprised to see an official wind advisory this afternoon although the forecast right now is just below that level
Tonight, frost warning. Expected low around freezing.