Big loser in the debate? Chris Christie!
Yep, Jeb Bush took a hit too. Guess who's risng? I think trump's going to win the Republican nomination (shudder)
Trump did worst in the debate yet still has a double digit lead over others. And the Fox attack makes him more credible among the large alienated segment of Republicans.
I think that ultimately the GOP money guys are going to come around to Scott Walker. He looks "moderate" and he's from a so-called blue state, but he's really an arch conservative. He'll appeal to the union busters, the religious right, and he won't scare too many independents. He's probably at least at corrupt as Christie, but it's the kind of political corruption that the press doesn't like to cover -- too boring, not enough sex or money.
When actual votes are cast, I think a lot of his current supporters are going to find it difficult to vote for Trump. And it's not like he's different from all the other candidates on substance. The difference is all in his blustery buffoonish style.
The other "major" candidate who should have a shot is Jeb(!), but with his reputation and name recognition, to still be at 10% in the polls doesn't bode well for his long term performance.
As ml1 already knows, but a reminder for others: That drop for Christie, from 3 percent to 1 percent, is not statistically significant because of the margin of error. In reality, he just as easily could have risen, say, from 1 percent to 4 percent.
"Despite a debate in which Fox moderators repeatedly attacked him and three days of hostile press coverage which came after it, Donald Trump remains in a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a poll released Sunday evening by NBC News. The results confound weekend press coverage suggesting Trump's campaign was foundering.
The online poll was conducted by the Analytics Unit of NBC News and the University of Pennsylvania's Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies over a 24 hour period from Friday evening into Saturday, thus coming entirely after the debate on Thursday evening.
According to poll, Trump has the support of 23% of Republican voters, followed by Ted Cruz with 13%, Ben Carson with 11%, Marco Rubio and Carly Fiorina tied at 8% and Jeb Bush and Scott Walker at 7%. The poll showed Trump essentially unchanged from a poll taken one week ago in which he garnered 22% support."
TPM
ml1 said:
And it's not like he's different from all the other candidates on substance. The difference is all in his blustery buffoonish style.
This, a million times.
The question is as some candidates drop out, which candidate will pick-up those votes? It takes a lot of money to keep campaigns going so clearly Bush and Trump both can outlast several of the underfunded candidates. My guess is that Trump is closer to his ceiling than Bush, Walker or even Rubio.
I thought Christie did ok in the debate - but I think he will drop out after the first few primaries and hope he is given a shot at the number 2 position.
Very interesting--thanks for posting the link.
Seems like the supposed front runners favored by the establishment, and with a real chance of winning the whole enchilada, did poorest--Walker, Bush, Christie. Meanwhile, candidates who probably don't stand a chance did well--Cruz, Dr Ben, and Carly. And of course, Trump L'oeil.
mikescott said:
I thought Christie did ok in the debate - but I think he will drop out after the first few primaries and hope he is given a shot at the number 2 position.
Christie does not have the personality or temperament to be #2, and he has far too much baggage for anyone to want to add him to the ticket.
Christie may think he's got a shot at #2, but it seems a very unlikely scenario to me.
Makes sense, as Trump and Christie have similar personalities which appeal to some voters, so Trump's ascendancy was bound to hurt Christie the most. No way Trump gets the nomination, though, he doesn't have the ground operation or the temperament to run a sophisticated, complex campaign day to day.
I say Jeb wins out. I think his camp is wary of peaking too soon in this very long election cycle and they're content to bide their time and not make a splash one way or the other this early. Let some of the fringe candidates make headlines and weed themselves out and then turn it on when the real running begins later this year.
I'm not crazy about the dynastic thing but I'm open-minded to Jeb. I generally liked his old man but loathed Dubya; I think Jeb is much more like GHWB than GWB.
Christie is a joke of a candidate IMO, just hoping against hope that he recaptures the mojo of the pre-Bridgegate Christie four years ago. It's tough to envision that happening.
probably true that he does not have the temperament - plus he can't guarantee them NJ so it is unlikely - but I think he feels he has a shot at being number 2.
LBJ did not have the temperament to be a number 2 - but he could give Kennedy Texas and balance the ticket, and at the least Kennedy wanted LBJ's support although I don't think he felt that LBJ would accept the 2 slot.
mjh said:
mikescott said:Christie does not have the personality or temperament to be #2, and he has far too much baggage for anyone to want to add him to the ticket.
I thought Christie did ok in the debate - but I think he will drop out after the first few primaries and hope he is given a shot at the number 2 position.
Christie may think he's got a shot at #2, but it seems a very unlikely scenario to me.
I stumbled across the Facebook page of a random Deep South right-wing nut job and spent a few minutes browsing. The debates left him supporting Trump even more strongly. He is furious with Fox News for disrespecting this American hero. They no longer have any credibility in his eyes and he will never watch them again.
Let's forget the polls and just get down to the nitty gritty: who thinks the Koch brothers will allow Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President? And they won't allow him to run as an Independent either. A deal will be struck, believe me. (You heard it here first!)
mikescott said:
The question is as some candidates drop out, which candidate will pick-up those votes? It takes a lot of money to keep campaigns going so clearly Bush and Trump both can outlast several of the underfunded candidates. My guess is that Trump is closer to his ceiling than Bush, Walker or even Rubio.
I thought Christie did ok in the debate - but I think he will drop out after the first few primaries and hope he is given a shot at the number 2 position.
Right now the GOP has a lot of candidates for Veep but no one rising up as a clear top of the ticket guy or gal.
Kasich, Christie, Fiorino, Walker--all could bring interesting balance to a ticket. But no one in the whole crowd is standing out as the leader of the party--yet. So it is wide open for someone to step forward, which might keep the Super PAC money flowing longer than usual.
I had thought that Christie would do great in New Hampshire and that this would propel him forward into a head to head with Bush and Walker in South Carolina. But it looks like Christie is not catching fire in New Hampshire.
apple44 said:
Makes sense, as Trump and Christie have similar personalities which appeal to some voters, so Trump's ascendancy was bound to hurt Christie the most. No way Trump gets the nomination, though, he doesn't have the ground operation or the temperament to run a sophisticated, complex campaign day to day.
All Trump needs is what he's getting: free media. The networks sell ads and the Donald helps them do that. All the other candidates need to worry about message and the burn rate of their campaign cash. Trump doesn't have those worries. He will peel support from every candidate that drops out. What's the RNC going to do? Buy him out?
Just because it isn't statistically significant, that doesn't mean it's not significant. It "probably" reflects that he didn't do well and lost some steam. Believe me, he's not thinking that since it's statistically insignificant and, therefore, not a big deal.
DaveSchmidt said:
As ml1 already knows, but a reminder for others: That drop for Christie, from 3 percent to 1 percent, is not statistically significant because of the margin of error. In reality, he just as easily could have risen, say, from 1 percent to 4 percent.
kthnry said:
I stumbled across the Facebook page of a random Deep South right-wing nut job and spent a few minutes browsing. The debates left him supporting Trump even more strongly. He is furious with Fox News for disrespecting this American hero. They no longer have any credibility in his eyes and he will never watch them again.
That would be an interesting turn of events if Fox loses credibility among the cons. But I guess I'll believe it when I see it.
What is the correlation between media coverage and poll position, and which influences which?
There are no real votes in this process until next February, so all of what is going on now is inconsequential nonsense to everyone save the big money funders and those of us with the politics addiction.
Trump's support is rock solid. The rest of the field has to consolidate votes quickly, which means cutting deals. Perhaps they're reading Trump's book The Art of the Deal?
jeffl said:
Just because it isn't statistically significant, that doesn't mean it's not significant. It "probably" reflects that he didn't do well and lost some steam. Believe me, he's not thinking that since it's statistically insignificant and, therefore, not a big deal.
DaveSchmidt said:
As ml1 already knows, but a reminder for others: That drop for Christie, from 3 percent to 1 percent, is not statistically significant because of the margin of error. In reality, he just as easily could have risen, say, from 1 percent to 4 percent.
Sure -- what he, or anyone else here, does with the results can have political or personal significance. I'm simply noting that as a tool, the poll does not tell us in which direction, if any, the debate actually moved the needle for Christie. (This includes "'probably' ... didn't do well and lost some steam"; inferences like that -- again, while folks are free to make them -- go beyond what the poll is capable of showing.) It basically tells us only that Christie did not get a meaningful boost.
I think Kasich is the most likely Veep choice from among those in the field right now.
Better temperament than Christie, won't outshine Number One on the ticket. Proven vote-getter in the key swing state of Ohio. Knows his way around Congress and around the executive branch, from his gigs prior to being governor of Ohio.
Of course, the above is based on logic.
nohero said:
I think Kasich is the most likely Veep choice from among those in the field right now.
Better temperament than Christie, won't outshine Number One on the ticket. Proven vote-getter in the key swing state of Ohio. Knows his way around Congress and around the executive branch, from his gigs prior to being governor of Ohio.
Of course, the above is based on logic.
Exactly. Which is how we have wound up with such luminaries for Veep as Sarah Palin. Logic be damned!
mjh said:
mikescott said:Christie does not have the personality or temperament to be #2, and he has far too much baggage for anyone to want to add him to the ticket.
I thought Christie did ok in the debate - but I think he will drop out after the first few primaries and hope he is given a shot at the number 2 position.
Christie may think he's got a shot at #2, but it seems a very unlikely scenario to me.
+1. Just ask Romney.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/10/book_says_romney_did_not_pick_christie_partly_because_of_unanswered_questions.html
Some retailer used to use the phrase "Select, don't settle."
I think they have to "settle" for Bush in the face of too many hard-right candidates. Bush was roundly mocked for his lose-the-primary; win-the-nomination strategy. This may have been a wise course. Lose some early and Southern primaries; win some. Be the unexciting prom date you settle for because he's your best bet.
HBO has been playing "Game Changer" about the Palin's rise to the VP ticket with McCain. I'm reminded how desperation drove the GOP to hitching the presidential ticket to that nutjob. I should hope that the GOP leadership has learned from that mistake.
But as a Democrat, I look forward to the Trump/Palin ticket. I can imagine the slogans now...
Trump/Palin 2016 - Keeping it crazy, real
Trump/Palin 2016 - No Body Puts Baby in the Corner
Trump/Palin 2016 - America, You're Fired
Trump/Palin 2016 - We Love America, So You Don't Have To
Trump/Palin 2016 - This is America's BEST
I could go on....
DaveSchmidt said:
jeffl said:Sure -- what he, or anyone else here, does with the results can have political or personal significance. I'm simply noting that as a tool, the poll does not tell us in which direction, if any, the debate actually moved the needle for Christie. (This includes "'probably' ... didn't do well and lost some steam"; inferences like that -- again, while folks are free to make them -- go beyond what the poll is capable of showing.) It basically tells us only that Christie did not get a meaningful boost.
Just because it isn't statistically significant, that doesn't mean it's not significant. It "probably" reflects that he didn't do well and lost some steam. Believe me, he's not thinking that since it's statistically insignificant and, therefore, not a big deal.
DaveSchmidt said:
As ml1 already knows, but a reminder for others: That drop for Christie, from 3 percent to 1 percent, is not statistically significant because of the margin of error. In reality, he just as easily could have risen, say, from 1 percent to 4 percent.
that was the point. he got no boost from the debate. His support is virtually zero, and it's been virtually zero since he declared. His campaign is a vanity project at this point. The shame of it is that virtually every bad decision he's made as governor was done with an eye toward this campaign. A campaign that isn't crashing and burning only because in order to crash you have to make it off the ground in the first place.
He's running so that for the rest of his life, and in his obituary, it will say Chris Christie, former governor of NJ and Republican presidential candidate.
nohero said:
I think Kasich is the most likely Veep choice from among those in the field right now.
Better temperament than Christie, won't outshine Number One on the ticket. Proven vote-getter in the key swing state of Ohio. Knows his way around Congress and around the executive branch, from his gigs prior to being governor of Ohio.
Of course, the above is based on logic.
But with who in the Presidential spot?
Latest NBC News poll taken after the debate has now has only 1% of potential GOP voters saying they support Chris Christie (which is only 1% higher than those who are going to vote for me). They also asked a question about who did best and worst in the debate, and the big guy got a net -7%, with 9% saying he was worst, while only 2% said he was the best.
I guess we're stuck with him. New Jersey's loss is our country's gain.
full poll results are here