Winter Weather Advisory Saturday, March 12

Thurs March 10th

May be some patches of black ice this morning.

Expect periods of heavy rain all day Saturday, 3/12. The wind is likely to pick up starting Saturday afternoon, reaching a steady 20 - 25 mph overnight with gusts in the 40s.


Jack and Mariah, but no Joe.


TLDR: Rain likely, starting Friday night, likely to become heavy for periods starting early Saturday morning. Might even hear a rumble of thunder or two. Wind likely to pick up and temps drop as the rain ends, snow could mix in but accumulation of more than an inch unlikely. Winds Sat afternoon and evening up to 20 mph with gusts in the high 30s likely.


Forgive me, I must rant a little.

Some of the commercial forecasters have been hyping the coming storm as a 'bomb cyclone.' While technically correct, this is misleading in several ways. (1) the word 'bomb' is unnecessarily scary (2) the storm does not arrive at a condition of bombogenesis until it is past us (3) calling it a 'bomb cyclone' doesn't tell us anything about the sensible weather, so it's not really useful, and (4) it's as much or more the cold front that is driving the weather this weekend, but 'cold front' doesn't garner nearly as many clicks.

The actionable part of the forecast is that we will have a rainy day that will get breezy. The rain will have its moments but I don't expect flooding to be an issue. The wind and gusts are of moderate concern, but similar to what we have been seeing almost weekly for the last month or so. Any snow will be minor.

So what is bombogenesis, and what is a bomb cyclone? A cyclone is a low pressure area in the atmosphere where the winds rotate around the central low. In the northern hemisphere, the winds rotate counterclockwise. When one of these storms runs up the east coast, the winds as the storm approach come out of the northeast; many of these storms are called 'nor'easter' for that reason. Bombogenesis happens when the pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. This results in a rapid intensification of wind and often precipitation. This storm is modeled* to drop from about 1002mb after midnight Fri-Sat to 985mb at noon, when the main low is modeled to pass us southeast of Long Island, and continue dropping to 975mb as it passes Boston around 3:00pm, by which point the effects here will be significantly reduced.

Sorry for the long rant but we all are a bit long on the anxiety these days, and I resent seeing people's stress ramped up unnecessarily by the evil machinations of capitalism.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

*The models are in fairly close agreement on the prognosis for this system. Data quoted is from the Euro.


Fri Evening, 3/11

Some slight adjustments with the latest model runsA slight westward shift in the storm track and a speedier arrival of the following cold front have changed the timing of the changeover from rain to snow. Rain should still arrive early tomorrow morning, and is likely to be heavy at times before changing over through mixed rain, sleet, and snow to all snow before ending in the afternoon. Changeover now forecast to happen midday.

This shift is likely to increase the amount of snow that accumulates to 1 - 4 inches, and there will now likely be some of that accumulating on paved surfaces. Winds Saturday afternoon still forecast to be in the 20 mph range with gusts in the high 30s to 40 mph.

As a result of the shift the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our area from 9 am to 7pm Saturday. The NWS has the wind a bit stronger than I do at gusts to 45mph. Temps will be dropping from a morning high in the mid 40s to the high 20s by early afternoon and into the low 20s overnight, so watch for patches of black ice Sunday morning.


From the NWS:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New York NY307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022NJZ004-104>108-120415-/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-

307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet surfaces. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing of any standing water resulting in difficult travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Slow down and use caution while traveling.Check local Department of Transportation information services forthe latest road conditions.

&&$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc


“Winter’s Last Gasp” my a$$. 


Thank you max. Much appreciated.


Thanks Max Do you have an estimate of how much rain we will get before the snow?


Thanks, Max! At least it's the weekend. Most of us have nowhere we have to be...


So if I have to be in Atlantic City at 2, how much difficulty will there be?  And if I will be done in AC at 8, will I have a normal drive home, or just book a hotel and stay overnight?


campbell29 said:

So if I have to be in Atlantic City at 2, how much difficulty will there be?  And if I will be done in AC at 8, will I have a normal drive home, or just book a hotel and stay overnight?

Unless there is a change, getting to A.C. by noon will not be a problem. Getting home, maybe difficult when you get off the Parkway and onto Mpl/So local streets.


Ok, good to know it’s drivable


campbell29 said:

Ok, good to know it’s drivable

Leave at noon and you should be ok.

Getting back looks like less of a problem than it was last night, but still could be ice on roads and sidewalks.


Sat morning, 3/12

Forecast remains on track

Rain changing over through a wintry mix to sleet and snow, then all snow this afternoon. Accumulations of 1 - 3 inches.

Wind this afternoon and evening in the low 20 mph range with gusts to 40 mph.

Overnight temps dropping through the 20s, maybe a low as the hight teens. Current temp of 45° is today's high, will fall from here.

The NWS has added a Wind Advisory tonight, Winter Weather Advisory in effect today.

From the NWS:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New York NY

402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

NJZ004-104>108-122100-

/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/

Eastern Passaic-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-

Western Union-Eastern Union-

402 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS

MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly late this

morning into this afternoon resulting in a quick freezing of any

standing water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for

the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit

https://weather.gov/nyc

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service New York NY

506 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-121815-

/O.EXB.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0800Z/

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield-

Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-

Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-

Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-

Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-

Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-

Southern Queens-

506 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING TO 4 AM

EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph

expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut

and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM EST this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.

Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may

result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&


mrincredible said:

“Winter’s Last Gasp” my a$$. 

There was a question mark...


krnl said:

Thanks Max Do you have an estimate of how much rain we will get before the snow?

Total precipitation of around one inch; hard to break out the components but I would guess maybe a third of that before changeover, and another third during the mixed phase


The precipitation hitting the windows now sounds sleety. [ETA: Tiny frozen balls (groupel?) are visible on the window sill before they melt]


I've got all snow outside my window.


Sidewalks still clear.  Driveway accumulating slushy/icy mix.  Whatever is coming down now is blowing sideways.  Roadway out my window looks clear so far.


Do we think the snow is over in our area?  


It’s crazy how the temperature dropped so quickly. Everything is freezing up. Just scraped ice off my car. Hopefully it is winter’s last gasp. It’s cold out there.


shanabana said:

Do we think the snow is over in our area?  

nope. snowing again.


Jaytee said:

It’s crazy how the temperature dropped so quickly. Everything is freezing up. Just scraped ice off my car. Hopefully it is winter’s last gasp. It’s cold out there.

Should I start putting in my window units? I was thinking next weekend. 


mrincredible said:

Should I start putting in my window units? I was thinking next weekend. 

let’s see what max says. 


The results: a pretty scene here in the Quarry, & the roads should be OK this AM...

-s.



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