Next Rain Storm Friday Night 1/12

Happy New Year

This week we are going to be keeping an eye on a storm signal in the models for next weekend. Still way too early to say anything definitive, but the combined possibility of cold air and precipitation is there, so snow is possible. Really too soon to be any more specific, though.

Tuesday January 2nd

Still a persistent storm signal in the models for this weekend.

This morning there continues to be a notably consistent indication of a storm system moving through the area from south to north Saturday night into and through Sunday. It is still too early to have any certainty as to wind and precipitation type, but snow or wintry mix is certainly a possibility. Timing is also subject to change but even the NWS commented this morning that there is a "remarkable consensus among the models...."

I would call a storm of some sort likely at this point.

Here we go...  Thanks for the early warning!

Well, I’m still not sure if we’ll get significant snow out of this storm. We could be right on the line between rain and snow. Another weekend with grey skies and brown leaves. Sucks.

Models are definitely in good agreement regarding some kind of storm. And it wouldn’t surprise me if we do see snow in the coming weeks. But I’m not sure it’ll be cold enough yet for this one to be a big snow maker. Time will tell. 

Wednesday Jan 3

Forecast is generally on track for a storm this weekend.

We are in that annoying time range where for this type of coastal storm I am stuck repeating how there is a storm in the forecast, but there are slight wobbles between the models and between runs, and because of the sharp rain/snow and precipitation gradients on this type of storm there is still a fair amount of variation in the forecast.

Between the GFS and the Euro, we are looking at between possibly 0.5 and 1.5 inches of liquid precipitation. Because of the varying temperature profiles, though, that could yield anywhere from zero to 8 inches of snow. I think the high end there is unlikely, but some forecasters are putting it out there and there is some support in the models.

More likely is some sort of wintery mix of rain and snow, with a slush accumulation. But that is still fairly speculative.

Timing is looking more like Saturday night into Sunday morning on the most recent runs.

There is another strong system showing up as all rain right now for the middle of next week.

Images below show the slight but important storm track difference between the Euro and the GFS this morning, with the Euro stronger and more onshore.

Thanks, Max!

A huge thank you to Amy Stuart, in conjunction with the Maplewood Department of Community Services,  who is working hard to find volunteers to help Maplewood seniors with snow removal. If you are a senior in need of snow removal help or an able bodied person willing and able to provide that help, please contact Amy at atsuart@maplewoodnj.gov  or 973-762-8120x4006.  Aim is to pair a senior in need with a close by neighbor willing and able to help.

joan_crystal said:

A huge thank you to Amy Stuart, in conjunction with the Maplewood Department of Community Services,  who is working hard to find volunteers to help Maplewood seniors with snow removal. If you are a senior in need of snow removal help or an able bodied person willing and able to provide that help, please contact Amy at atsuart@maplewoodnj.gov  or 973-762-8120x4006.  Aim is to pair a senior in need with a close by neighbor willing and able to help.

Yes, thanks Joan, just got notification today who the kind neighbor is who will help me out!

I’m even more skeptical of a big snow out of this than I was last night. Just looks like the system will be too quick and too warm. Still time to trend the other way, but I’d be surprised. 

Thanks, WxNut!

WxNut2.0 said:

I’m even more skeptical of a big snow out of this than I was last night. Just looks like the system will be too quick and too warm. Still time to trend the other way, but I’d be surprised. 

I really hope you are right.

WxNut2.0 said:

I’m even more skeptical of a big snow out of this than I was last night. Just looks like the system will be too quick and too warm. Still time to trend the other way, but I’d be surprised. 

will the warm air off the ocean reach across I-95 and I-78? If it does then we’ll get slush. NW New Jersey will most likely get 6 inches or so, I always find west orange up in the hills gets more freezing precipitation than us down in the lower parts of Essex County. I think we’ll dodge this one.

Jaytee said:

WxNut2.0 said:

I’m even more skeptical of a big snow out of this than I was last night. Just looks like the system will be too quick and too warm. Still time to trend the other way, but I’d be surprised. 

will the warm air off the ocean reach across I-95 and I-78? If it does then we’ll get slush. NW New Jersey will most likely get 6 inches or so, I always find west orange up in the hills gets more freezing precipitation than us down in the lower parts of Essex County. I think we’ll dodge this one.

it should yes. The whole system just doesn’t look right to me for huge snow. The jet isn’t quite as amplified as one would like to see for a big snow event. 

Thursday January 4

Things are coming into focus for this weekend's storm, and the word is slush.

With the caveats that things are still unsettled and could change, this storm is looking more and more like a near-miss snow event as warm temperatures (relatively speaking) will keep the precipitation from being accumulating snow here in MAPSO. That said, some snow is still very possible, especially at the beginning and end of the precipitation, and slippery, slushy conditions could result. Also be aware that west and especially north of us could get significant accumulation Saturday night through early Sunday morning, and the Appalachians could see significant icing, so plan travel carefully.

Likely that precipitation overspreads the area Saturday afternoon, might be some snow but not more than an inch or two, probably changing over to rain Saturday night into early Sunday morning, then possibly back to snow at the end for a bit.

Please note that there are factors that could change this. The rain/snow line is sharply delineated, so a shift in the storm track could affect the mix. Also, if any banding of heavier precipitation sets up, it could drop the temperature and shift more towards snow.

At this time though I am becoming more confident that this is an annoyance event not at all worth wearing your pajamas inside out for.

In other weather news, still watching a strong and steady signal in the models for a significant rain and wind event midweek.

max_weisenfeld said:

Thursday January 4

Things are coming into focus for this weekend's storm, and the word is slush.

With the caveats that things are still unsettled and could change, this storm is looking more and more like a near-miss snow event as warm temperatures (relatively speaking) will keep the precipitation from being accumulating snow here in MAPSO. That said, some snow is still very possible, especially at the beginning and end of the precipitation, and slippery, slushy conditions could result. Also be aware that west and especially north of us could get significant accumulation Saturday night through early Sunday morning, and the Appalachians could see significant icing, so plan travel carefully.

Likely that precipitation overspreads the area Saturday afternoon, might be some snow but not more than an inch or two, probably changing over to rain Saturday night into early Sunday morning, then possibly back to snow at the end for a bit.

Please note that there are factors that could change this. The rain/snow line is sharply delineated, so a shift in the storm track could affect the mix. Also, if any banding of heavier precipitation sets up, it could drop the temperature and shift more towards snow.

At this time though I am becoming more confident that this is an annoyance event not at all worth wearing your pajamas inside out for.

In other weather news, still watching a strong and steady signal in the models for a significant rain and wind event midweek.

As always, thanks so much, Max.  Any thoughts on travel to and from Albany on Sunday?  We would really like to attend a family event that starts at 2 pm on Sunday in Albany.  Are we foolish to try to leave mid to late morning and return in the evening?

tararagone said:

As always, thanks so much, Max. Any thoughts on travel to and from Albany on Sunday? We would really like to attend a family event that starts at 2 pm on Sunday in Albany. Are we foolish to try to leave mid to late morning and return in the evening?

How comfortable are you driving in snow?

The roads could be messy north of us but they likely won't be impassible.  Allow extra time, dress warm, and pay attention to the forecast.  Things are likely to be worse north of Rt. 80 and especially north of Rt. 84.

Probably gonna get about two inches of wet slush. That’s hard to shovel, I just push it with the shovel instead of lifting it up. 

This is an interesting map:

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=snow

I clicked 12 UTC on Sunday.

24-Hour Probability of Snow Accumulating ≥ 4"

Friday Jan 5th

Forecast on track for a widespread winter storm Saturday and Sunday, 1/6 - 1/7. The models continue to show a mix of rain and snow in our immediate areas, with much more snow north, west, and into New England, and mostly rain south and in the city.

Precipitation, more likely snown than rain, should overspread the area from southwest to northeast Saturday late afternoon. Precipitation likely to change over to mixed snow and rain overnight Saturday into Sunday, with some slushy accumulation likely, perhaps 1 - 3 inches. Lighter precipitation likely to continue into Sunday morning with the possibility of another inch of snow by early afternoon.

Total liquid precipitation, rain and melted snow equivalent, of 1 - 1.5 inches.

Sunday night could see some freezing but chances of a widespread flash freeze causing major icing are low.

Winds Sunday morning 10 - 15 with gusts in the 20s

Note that there is a sharp change in the snow depth forecast as you get further from the coast. I think I mentioned earlier in the week that the warm (about 40⁰) ocean would help us here. As the low is passing so close to shore there should be a significant sea breeze during the heaviest period of precipitation, keeping mid level temperatures above freezing. There is a slight risk that if heavier banding sets up, the heavier precipitation could draw down colder air from higher levels and then there would be more snow. That's the biggest risk in the forecast.

Still looking at heavy rain Tuesday night or Wednesday, perhaps a couple of inches.

max_weisenfeld said:

How comfortable are you driving in snow?

The roads could be messy north of us but they likely won't be impassible.  Allow extra time, dress warm, and pay attention to the forecast.  Things are likely to be worse north of Rt. 80 and especially north of Rt. 84.

Thanks, Max.  I definitely am not the most comfortable driving in the snow - not a complete novice, but I prefer to stay safe at home.  I appreciate this information.

tararagone said:

Thanks, Max.  I definitely am not the most comfortable driving in the snow - not a complete novice, but I prefer to stay safe at home.  I appreciate this information.

More snow along your route in the forecast now than when i wrote my previous response, so I would say don't set out Sunday until you've checked road conditions along the route

Quite conceivable this isn’t the most impactful event we see in the next week. The likelihood of a significant *rain* event Tuesday is increasing. Will bear watching. 

WxNut2.0 said:

Quite conceivable this isn’t the most impactful event we see in the next week. The likelihood of a significant *rain* event Tuesday is increasing. Will bear watching. 

Yes indeed

Saturday Jan 6th

Forecast is on track for a winter storm this afternoon and tonight with snow and rain the main features.

Snow should develop this afternoon between 3 and 5, becoming heavy tonight and mixing with rain. Precipitation may pause for several hours in the early morning, picking up with lighter snow showers Sunday morning into the afternoon. 1 - 3 inches possible overnight mixed with rain and above freezing temperatures likely to produce a slushy mess rather than fluffy drifts tomorrow morning. Little further accumulation likely during the day Sunday.

Changes from previous forecast: the forecast storm track in a bit more inland than forecasts indicated yesterday. The models are in good agreement that this will increase the influence of the sea breezes and keep the near surface temperatures at or above freezing for most of the event, so coastal areas (and us) will trend towards wet snow and rain. Moving west and especially north continues to show a sharp upward trend in snow depth overnight.

Breezy winds in the 10-15mph range.

Outside the immediate MAPSO area to the north and west snow could be signicantly deeper Sunday morning check the local forecast before traveling.

The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for our area.

Later this week, we are watching a system that could bring widespread heavy rain and wind Tuesday into Wednesday

I will not have the opportunity to update or answer questions today, but confidence in the forecast is fairly high. Watch the radar for start times

Thank you Max!

max_weisenfeld said:

More snow along your route in the forecast now than when i wrote my previous response, so I would say don't set out Sunday until you've checked road conditions along the route

So kind of you to keep me in mind.  Thank you!  I'm watching a local Albany forecast, so I have the ends covered.  Any suggestions for the best ways to monitor the condition of the roads in between?

Thanks Max!!

tararagone said:

max_weisenfeld said:

More snow along your route in the forecast now than when i wrote my previous response, so I would say don't set out Sunday until you've checked road conditions along the route

So kind of you to keep me in mind.  Thank you!  I'm watching a local Albany forecast, so I have the ends covered.  Any suggestions for the best ways to monitor the condition of the roads in between?

I'd look at somewhere like New Paltz as a midpoint

Nixle Alert  (6:30 pm): Please stay home if there is no emergency to leave your residence, as the roads ways are really bad. DPW is in the process of salting.