Winter Storm WARNING Friday - Saturday, Jan 28 - 29

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Possible Nor'easter This Friday - Saturday

There is a strong and persistent indication of a system with the potential to drop significant snow this weekend. It is still too early in the forecast cycle for specifics; some runs have us on the western edge and some are a warning level hit. While it is tempting to sit with the models run to run, for today at least I expect them to keep swinging back and forth so I will hold off on updating until tomorrow morning.

Best advice for today is to be prepared for a snowstorm this weekend and hope to be disappointed.


From the NWS:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
350 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022


This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the potential for a coastal storm 
to bring heavy snowfall and high winds 
to portions of the area Friday night 
into Saturday night. Uncertainties 
remain with the track and intensity 
of the coastal storm and its resulting 
potential impacts.

max_weisenfeld said:

...

Best advice for today is to be prepared for a snowstorm this weekend and hope to be disappointed.

wait, disappointed if it snows, or if it doesn't snow?

I need guidance.


drummerboy said:

wait, disappointed if it snows, or if it doesn't snow?

I need guidance.

Be prepared for the worse (2 feet of snow)

Hope for the best…(2 inches)

Most people are hoping to be disappointed by the forecast of a potential blizzard that’s how I’m reading Max


Very tough forecast this one -- lots of boom or bust potential here and the ECMWF hasn't handled the last few of these (similar) situations well. But if its right, could be quite the show.


Must be an interesting storm.  WxNut is in the house.


tjohn said:

Must be an interesting storm.  WxNut is in the house.

I'm in London at the moment, forecasting for Europe. This storm is giving my forecast across the pond fits!


I've got a flight out of Newark Airport 6 pm Friday and MUST be in Chicago by noon the next day. Should I be making plans to leave Thursday instead? Do we know when the snow will start on Friday, if it does start?


I feel like this will be a major storm. It’s kinda like the same scenario of the’96 blizzard. Cold air dips down to Florida and joins up with the system off the coast. 


I kinda hope it's a big one. A snowstorm feels cleansing.


bigorangesplotmpwd said:

I've got a flight out of Newark Airport 6 pm Friday and MUST be in Chicago by noon the next day. Should I be making plans to leave Thursday instead? Do we know when the snow will start on Friday, if it does start?

Better to be safe than in Newark.


Wed Morning Jan 26

Models are in a good consensus (for this still rather long range) that there is likely to be a strong winter storm Friday night through late Saturday night. We are just not sure where, exactly.

What we know: a strong winter storm will develop off the Bahamas Friday morning and move up the coast, presenting here as a nor'easter. Snow is likely, with a rather uninformative range at this moment of 2 - 12" and a possibility of gusty winds. Snow could continue through Saturday.

What we don't know: the storm is presenting in most modeling with a very sharp snow gradient on its western edge. This means that the track up the coast is very important, and small deviations can have big consequences. The American GFS model this morning would have 3 - 6 inches here, a foot on Long Island, and two feet in Boston.

Forecast: Snow likely Friday night through Saturday night. Prepare as if major impacts are possible, but they are far from a sure thing at this time.


American and European models - via CNN


In advance of the coming blizzard, I hope folks will be safe & considerate of others while having fun... I urge (A) the use of STEERABLE sleds where possible - on Flood's Hill or anywhere else - and (2) Your eyes should always be looking uphill once you turn around at the bottom... BTW: Here's a quick overview. Feel free to print some up...

-s.


jamie said:

American and European models - via CNN

I vote for the American model. What's your vote?


the chance of snow for Fri. night on weather.gov has gone from 40% to 70% to 80% since yesterday.


Thursday morning, Jan 27, 2022

While indications are strong for a powerful winter storm Friday night through Saturday evening, the complex structure of the system is making forecasting the exact track, and therefore the exact impact, difficult.

I am afraid this one is going to come down to the wire. Any forecast I give below, and I will take a shot at it, is heavily conditional. As the NWS said in in their discussion yesterday, "the goalposts are very wide."

My best guess at this time is that Friday will start out overcast, with a chance of snow showers during the day. After midnight, snow should become steady and continue through the day Saturday, with accumulation of 4 - 6 inches possible. Snow would end in the late afternoon or evening Saturday. Windy, with gusts in the 20s or 30s possible.

BUT

The set-up for this storm has created a precipitation shield with a very sharp western edge, so relatively small shifts east or west in the track of the storm center would bring significant changes to the amount of snow any location receives. Since these factors will not resolve themselves in the modeling until at the earliest tomorrow morning, when the main low forms off the Carolinas, this storm will be to some extent a 'nowcast' situation.

That said, the models have been fairly consistent with an easterly track and the lower snow totals for a couple of days now. Occasionally one or another throws off a shift west or east and then recovers. One run of the NAM model yesterday dropped a foot or more all over the area and got the weather weenies on the message boards all excited, only to shift right back east on the next run.

The range of likely snow solutions is actually 2 - 12 inches for the MAPSO area. If the higher amounts were to happen, snowfall would continue into Saturday evening and even possibly Saturday night. High winds are forecast near the coast, and could create blowing snow conditions that reduce visibility. Ironically, this would lower snow totals by compacting snow and causing drifts.


drummerboy said:

the chance of snow for Fri. night on weather.gov has gone from 40% to 70% to 80% since yesterday.

back down to 70%


I’m thinking upwards of 12 inches of snow. 


So, is it still a “bomb cyclone” that is predicted in the most dramatic scenario? 


shanabana said:

So, is it still a “bomb cyclone” that is predicted in the most dramatic scenario? 

It could phase and bomb, but if it does it will most likely be past us by then.  Watch out, Nova Scotia!


Appreciate the updates Max!  We are ex-Maplewoodians living in Austin, TX now and trying to make it up this weekend. And I knew right were to go to find out the latest on this storm!


time to get milkeggsbread before tomorrow's hysteria.


I found this interesting as a layperson in regards to weather forecasting.

https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/weather-education/european-vs-american-weather-models-whats-the-difference

"Many of us see weather forecasts and hear the terms “European models” and “American models” within them. But do we know what the difference is between these models and what they both mean? The main differences between the two models involve accuracy and time frame of predictions; however, both are global models."


Max is great and our modern weather forecasting tech is very impressive but I've long felt that this day to day hovering over projected bad weather has made us neurotic about it.  On balance, my recollection is that at least with snow, the results over the years have tended to be milder than forecast.  And when it isn't, so what?  It gets shoveled just like it did in the past when we did not have as much high tech long term info. 


bub said:

Max is great and our modern weather forecasting tech is very impressive but I've long felt that this day to day hovering over projected bad weather has made us neurotic about it.  On balance, my recollection is that at least with snow, the results over the years have tended to be milder than forecast.  And when it isn't, so what?  It gets shoveled just like it did in the past when we did not have as much high tech long term info. 

In as much as it affects travel plans, it can be annoying when you change everything because of inclement weather and you get a bust, or had to cancel at the last minute because you were hoping it would be mild and it was heavy. Otherwise, I agree with you, if you're staying home anyway and if you're physically able, just get prepared to dig out.


one thing I've learned here from our resident meteorologists is WHY the forecasts have uncertainty.  The fact that a storm moving 10 or 20 miles east or west means extreme differences in outcome makes me appreciate all the more how difficult weather forecasting still is.  If the prediction is for a foot of snow and we only get 2" because the storm moved 20 miles further east, I now appreciate why that happened.


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