Omicron variant concerns

It is my understanding (from the Brian Lehrer show and other sources), that the rapid antigen test is better at testing whether you are actively shedding the virus (i.e. contagious) and the PCR test is more sensitive and will detect whether you have Covid in your system.  Apparently, Covid lingers in your system for up to three months after you are no longer sick.  So, if you are recovering from Covid, the antigen test can indicate when you are no longer contagious and can exit isolation.

Reliability of testing is a concern.  At best tests capture your viral load at the moment in time when the test was administered.  At worse they may be unreliable due to possible error in the way in which they are administered, processed, or interpreted.  Still, they are the best indicator of infection we have at the moment, especially in the case of asymptomatic cases or mild cases that would otherwise be attributed to something else.  The extremely high number of persons testing positive suggests that the infection is spreading rapidly through our community.  Tests remain the best diagnostic tool we have as we struggle to bring the current wave of infections under control.

bub said:

We do live in a highly vaccinated area and I know people who even in recent weeks have taken comfort in the now passe idea that "we are all vaccinated" so we can hang together without worry.  I think most of the maskless in our area are vaccinated.

A little postscript to something I think I mentioned a few weeks ago.  I went to see a band at the Jersey Shore.  Omicron was already on the horizon but hadn't hit here yet.  I was careful - N95, hung back away from crowd and where outside air was coming in etc. -  but most of crowd was shoulder to shoulder by stage, unmasked.  The place had no rules re Covid.  Since then, they've cancelled at least three shows, two openly out of "Covid concerns."

http://www.stoneponyonline.com/events/  ?

joan_crystal said:

Reliability of testing is a concern.  At best tests capture your viral load at the moment in time when the test was administered.  At worse they may be unreliable due to possible error in the way in which they are administered, processed, or interpreted.  Still, they are the best indicator of infection we have at the moment, especially in the case of asymptomatic cases or mild cases that would otherwise be attributed to something else.  The extremely high number of persons testing positive suggests that the infection is spreading rapidly through our community.  Tests remain the best diagnostic tool we have as we struggle to bring the current wave of infections under control.

Understood that part but I wish they had done a better job of explaining why those rapid tests are not proving to be the good indicators they're supposed to be. Too many people get it wrong and are misled by a false negative result. Then they go out and about their business still able to spread COVID. 

cramer said:

bub said:

We do live in a highly vaccinated area and I know people who even in recent weeks have taken comfort in the now passe idea that "we are all vaccinated" so we can hang together without worry.  I think most of the maskless in our area are vaccinated.

A little postscript to something I think I mentioned a few weeks ago.  I went to see a band at the Jersey Shore.  Omicron was already on the horizon but hadn't hit here yet.  I was careful - N95, hung back away from crowd and where outside air was coming in etc. -  but most of crowd was shoulder to shoulder by stage, unmasked.  The place had no rules re Covid.  Since then, they've cancelled at least three shows, two openly out of "Covid concerns."

http://www.stoneponyonline.com/events/  ?

They cancelled shows on Dec 30 and 31.

Is Flurona the next thing on the horizon? 

Someone got 2 different viruses at the same time, which can happen.  Giving it that name makes it sound like there's now some new single pathogen that somehow combines the flu with Covid.  I don't think so.

bub said:

Someone got 2 different viruses at the same time, which can happen.  Giving it that name makes it sound like there's now some new single pathogen that somehow combines the flu with Covid.  I don't think so.

Yes, please don't confuse that with such a nickname à la Bennifer. There have been a few cases of getting delta and omicron at the same time and that is confusing and alarming enough. That's relatively rare so that's good. At least that hasn't gotten a snarky nickname.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/health/ask-dr-nandi/can-you-get-infected-with-both-omicron-and-delta-at-the-same-time

PeterWick said:

Yes, please don't confuse that with such a nickname à la Bennifer. There have been a few cases of getting delta and omicron at the same time and that is confusing and alarming enough. That's relatively rare so that's good. At least that hasn't gotten a snarky nickname.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/health/ask-dr-nandi/can-you-get-infected-with-both-omicron-and-delta-at-the-same-time

deltacron?

omelta?

ml1 said:

deltacron?

omelta?

Omma gonna melta you face if you keep dat up, wise guy...

In a couple of months, when we’re due to start our flu shots, apparently they’ll be combined with a coronavirus shot too, to help support the vulnerable. (CSIRO were working on it from last year)  I guess there will prob be a version that’s just straight fluvax. 
(I was going to attach any info available but at the moment they’re just repeating last year’s info, reviewed Dec.)

39 new cases in Hong Kong today and the government is banning dining-in restaurants after 6pm and social distancing rules are back; no in-bound flights until 24 January; outdoor transmission has been confirmed.

dave said:

39 new cases in Hong Kong today and the government is banning dining-in restaurants after 6pm and social distancing rules are back; no in-bound flights until 24 January; outdoor transmission has been confirmed.

Awww, ****. Outdoor transmission, something we haven't considered a serious threat for a long time.

dave said:

39 new cases in Hong Kong today and the government is banning dining-in restaurants after 6pm and social distancing rules are back; no in-bound flights until 24 January; outdoor transmission has been confirmed.

Talk about cautious.  There were 82 new cases in Maplewood alone yesterday.

Some of the doctors and epis that are frequently seen on television are now comparing omicron infectivity to measles.   This is notable.   Measles has long been considered the most contagious illness.   

So, we're all going to get it eventually.  We should plan to slow the spread (flatten the curve) and moderate the impact (vaccinations).

So basically it’s out of control, no one knows anything about it and we are flying by the seat of our pants 2 years later

I don't mind getting "it" down the road when "it" is, hopefully, just another cold-like coronavirus and we won't even paying attention to what "it" is when we get it.  I don't want it now.

bub said:

I don't mind getting "it" down the road when "it" is, hopefully, just another cold-like coronavirus and we won't even paying attention to what "it" is when we get it.  I don't want it now.

I actually won't mind getting it now. Anecdotally, it appears that for those of us with 3 doses in us to be a chest cold/head cold. I would welcome more antibodies. Based on an article from Israel this morning, will be lining up for a 4th jab as soon as I can.

Given the ridiculousness contagiousness of omicron, I think it's more likely than not my household will get it at some point. (We do seem to have gotten lucky in our trip to the midwest over Christmas). Since we're all vaccinated and boosted, I'm not too concerned from a health standpoint, but since for so long the goal has been avoiding infection if possible I've been changing the messaging and putting more emphasis on the fact that the vaccines mean we won't get very sick. This way in the (increasingly likely) case where we get it, the kids won't be overly worried.

I think the wide availability of vaccines for 5+ combined with the high infectivity but, so far low severity (esp for the vaccinated) of omicron are putting us into a new phase of the pandemic. I do wish vaccines were available for those under 5 -- I imagine it's a very stressful time for those with children that young now. And of course it's still dangerous for the significant number of people who would like to get vaccinated by either can't or are still vulnerable if they do (eg immunocompromised or other health conditions). In the broad strokes, though, things feel different now, edging towards what I suppose "endemic" will be like.

BlueShirt88 said:

So basically it’s out of control, no one knows anything about it and we are flying by the seat of our pants 2 years later

We are flying on our own. Don't expect much help from the FDA and CDC bureaucrats and medical mandarins. With them its always too little and too late. Israel is working on their fourth shot, their second booster while we just approved the booster for teenagers.

The C.D.C. Is Hoping You’ll Figure Covid Out on Your Own

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the president’s chief medical adviser, argued the same, also on Dec. 29. Referring to antigen tests, he said, “If it’s positive, we don’t know what that means for transmissibility” and that these antigen tests aren’t as sensitive as P.C.R. tests.

Might the real reason be that rapid tests are hard to find and expensive here (while they are easily available and relatively cheap in other countries)?

President Biden said on Dec. 22 that “I wish I had thought about ordering half a billion” rapid tests two months ago. Indeed, why didn’t officials do so two months ago, or 10 months ago?

The administration needs to do more to ramp up production of what should be one crucial tool in controlling the spread of the virus and allowing people to return to normal.

It’s hard not to worry that officials may be denigrating rapid tests now for the same reason they denigrated the use of masks early in the pandemic — we don’t have enough of them.

The C.D.C. still says that some N95s should be reserved for health care workers, even though they provide better protection for the wearer and the public than cloth or surgical masks, and even though there is no longer a shortage of them.

According to Walensky, N95s “are very hard to breathe in” and “are very hard to tolerate” so she worries that “if we suggest or require that people wear an N95, they won’t wear them all the time.”

Yet I’ve worn N95s many times, and there are many comfortable ones — some better than cloth masks because the seal is so good that my glasses don’t fog up. And if it were a problem, why hasn’t the C.D.C. made sure there were more comfortable ones available?

Dr. Abraar Karan, an infectious disease specialist who’s pushed for more protective masks for the public from the beginning, recently pointed out that as far back as 2008, N95s have been approved for public use during a public health emergency. What happened to that now that we have an actual pandemic?

Even my own doctor complained that he wasn’t sure which ones being sold were counterfeit — baffling that this is still a problem, even two years in.

Why hasn’t the government organized a system to guide people to buy real N95s? Or better yet, how about mailing some to people free? At a minimum, Walensky could tell people that N95s are more protective and let people opt for them if they chose.

All this has left people with the sense that they are on their own, searching for guidance and getting more confused, and perhaps wondering why the government seems so unprepared for the latest Covid wave.

Actually, we know a lot about Omicron.  It's a mix of good and bad.  The good is that while Omicron is crazily infectious and infects the vaccinated and previously ill with much greater ease than earlier variants, the vaccinated are much better off than the unvaccinated when it comes to serious illness and death, i.e. the vaccines work.

Also, as I've said ad nauseum, quality well-fitted masks work.  No one in my family or among my friends who have been careful about mask wearing and other habits has gotten sick in recent weeks.  People I know who got lax - went to holiday parties and ate and drank - got sick.  No mystery there.  

BlueShirt88 said:

So basically it’s out of control, no one knows anything about it and we are flying by the seat of our pants 2 years later

this is hardly the case. Vaccines that work, antiviral meds are coming soon. Are we still chasing COVID? Yes, we are but that's not flying by the seat of your pants when it's being chased by the most brilliant scientists the world knows. Do we know what the end result will be? Probably not but where we are today is a much better place than where we were two years ago when we knew nothing about this new virus.  

Redfruit said:

this is hardly the case. Vaccines that work, antiviral meds are coming soon. Are we still chasing COVID? Yes, we are but that's not flying by the seat of your pants when it's being chased by the most brilliant scientists the world knows. Do we know what the end result will be? Probably not but where we are today is a much better place than where we were two years ago when we knew nothing about this new virus.  

You're not flying by the seat of your pants?

You're confident in knowing what masks are counterfeit? In the availability of reliable N95 masks? Confident in the availability of tests? Confident in the way the booster rollout has been handled here vs other countries like Israel?

What good are the most brilliant scientists when we're stuck in bureaucratic mazes of opportunism and ineptitude?

RTrent said:

Redfruit said:

this is hardly the case. Vaccines that work, antiviral meds are coming soon. Are we still chasing COVID? Yes, we are but that's not flying by the seat of your pants when it's being chased by the most brilliant scientists the world knows. Do we know what the end result will be? Probably not but where we are today is a much better place than where we were two years ago when we knew nothing about this new virus.  

You're not flying by the seat of your pants?

You're confident in knowing what masks are counterfeit? In the availability of reliable N95 masks? Confident in the availability of tests? Confident in the way the booster rollout has been handled here vs other countries like Israel?

What good are the most brilliant scientists when we're stuck in bureaucratic mazes of opportunism and ineptitude?

You're being silly. No, we are not flying by the seat of our pants. Get vaccinated, get boosted, wear your mask, social distance, avoid crowds, especially indoor crowds. Follow the science, encourage others to do the same, especially when it comes to getting vaccinated. This is not a seat of the pants type situation, these are hard fast rules to help put an end to the pandemic. Most importantly, stop panicking, that helps no one. 

BTW, while I admire Israel's science and decisiveness, the Omicron situation is hardly great over there.  The problem with boosters is that for whatever reason, only a fraction of the people who got the first two doses have opted for a third shot.  I don't see how that falls on the CDC or "the scientists."  

Redfruit said:

RTrent said:

You're not flying by the seat of your pants?

You're confident in knowing what masks are counterfeit? In the availability of reliable N95 masks? Confident in the availability of tests? Confident in the way the booster rollout has been handled here vs other countries like Israel?

What good are the most brilliant scientists when we're stuck in bureaucratic mazes of opportunism and ineptitude?

You're being silly. No, we are not flying by the seat of our pants. Get vaccinated, get boosted, wear your mask, social distance, avoid crowds, especially indoor crowds. Follow the science, encourage others to do the same, especially when it comes to getting vaccinated. This is not a seat of the pants type situation, these are hard fast rules to help put an end to the pandemic. Most importantly, stop panicking, that helps no one. 

I'm being silly. You're confident of the above? Then you must be very special. Do you have secret knowledge of what is needed? Or do you follow ever shifting CDC guidelines as your mantra comfortable in the knowledge that you are not flying by the seats of your pants.

If I'm silly then so is the author of the "The C.D.C. Is Hoping You’ll Figure Covid Out on Your Own" article that I posted above.

bub said:

BTW, while I admire Israel's science and decisiveness, the Omicron situation is hardly great over there.  The problem with boosters is that for whatever reason, only a fraction of the people who got the first two doses have opted for a third shot.  I don't see how that falls on the CDC or "the scientists."  

Maybe many more would have gotten the booster if the FDA and CDC did not delay with their "we're not sure if needed and we need to be careful" with their ever shifting restrictions on who is eligible. Actions that did not build confidence in booster shots. If anything the opposite.

The Israel situation are the Haredim who refuse. Why depend on doctors when you have God.

RTrent said:

The Israel situation are the Haredim who refuse. Why depend on doctors when you have God.

This parable, maybe.

"

A fellow was stuck on his rooftop in a flood. He was praying to God for help.

Soon a man in a rowboat came by and the fellow shouted to the man on the roof, “Jump in, I can save you.”

The stranded fellow shouted back, “No, it’s OK, I’m praying to God and he is going to save me.”

So the rowboat went on.

Then a motorboat came by. “The fellow in the motorboat shouted, “Jump in, I can save you.”

To this the stranded man said, “No thanks, I’m praying to God and he is going to save me. I have faith.”

So the motorboat went on.

Then a helicopter came by and the pilot shouted down, “Grab this rope and I will lift you to safety.”

To this the stranded man again replied, “No thanks, I’m praying to God and he is going to save me. I have faith.”

So the helicopter reluctantly flew away.

Soon the water rose above the rooftop and the man drowned. He went to Heaven. He finally got his chance to discuss this whole situation with God, at which point he exclaimed, “I had faith in you but you didn’t save me, you let me drown. I don’t understand why!”

To this God replied, “I sent you a rowboat and a motorboat and a helicopter, what more did you expect?”

RTrent said:

Maybe many more would have gotten the booster if the FDA and CDC did not delay with their "we're not sure if needed and we need to be careful" with their ever shifting restrictions on who is eligible. Actions that did not build confidence in booster shots. If anything the opposite.

I seem to recall the time course of those decisions to relax the restrictions shows that those decisions were made based on discussions that occurred before the omicron variant ****ing took the world by storm. This is a different ball game we're having to play with a variant that is so much more transmissible. 

The huge number of tests didn't seem quite so necessary but this past month's arrival of the omicron variant changed that. Trying to be fiscally responsible and not ordering millions of tests that might not be needed made sense before but now they're needed and we face shortages. So of course, the authorities are to blame? Got it.

The eligibility decisions for the vaccine were based on clinical trials and evaluating the data, you know, the whole being careful to be as confident as possible that they're safe and effective in younger cohorts.