Omicron subvariant BA2 is able to reinfect omicron recoverees

This newer BA.2 version of omicron spreads faster and doesn't care if you have been infected with BA.1. Since that was over the past 3 months, one would expect to have some "natural immunity" but BA.2 just told the UK, Germany and Denmark "Hold my beer."

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1491425709642088448?s=20&t=UIWl0p8uzQ7CHhJtV8xsSg

Some relatively good news on #BA2 is that it seems to responds similarly to vaccines as BA1– but it responds well only to 3 vaccine shots if you get a booster. Without booster, the symptomatic efficacy is very poor —13% and that’s not even significantly different from 0.

------------

Now the real bad news— two new studies say “immunity based on #Omicron-infection is weak for (another) Omicron reinfection” — if unvaccinated 

This means protection from your earlier Omicron may not be great if unvaccinated!


BA.2 is making up most of the cases now in S. Africa but the case counts are significantly lower than they were during the first wave. I don’t think scientists are anywhere near panicked over BA2 at this time. It also looks like it’s not more  severe than the original which for me boosted, was just a mild cold. I don’t think this is the other shoe dropping yet. 


Here's some context regarding South Africa and America. Our respective experiences have been much different, particularly in the lack of respect we gave omicron.

The stats for South Africa after omicron hit there:

90K total COVID deaths on November 19, 2021 
97K total COVID deaths on February 12, 2022   -> 7K more deaths, a 7.8% increase in total deaths
That extra number of deaths is 0.01% of the whole population of South Africa.

The stats for America after omicron hit there:

841K total COVID deaths on December 25, 2021
942K
total COVID deaths on February 12, 2022 -> 101K more deaths, a 10.7 % increase in total deaths 
That extra number of deaths is 0.03% of the whole population of the United States.

That is in a time span of 5 fewer weeks.

Clearly, we are doing it wrong and there's a good chance we'll continue to **** things up as BA.2 comes along.


PeterWick said:

Here's some context regarding South Africa and America. Our respective experiences have been much different, particularly in the lack of respect we gave omicron.

The stats for South Africa after omicron hit there:

90K total COVID deaths on November 19, 2021 
97K total COVID deaths on February 12, 2022   -> 7K more deaths, a 7.8% increase in total deaths
That extra number of deaths is 0.01% of the whole population of South Africa.

The stats for America after omicron hit there:

841K total COVID deaths on December 25, 2021
942K
total COVID deaths on February 12, 2022 -> 101K more deaths, a 10.7 % increase in total deaths 
That extra number of deaths is 0.03% of the whole population of the United States.

That is in a time span of 5 fewer weeks.

Clearly, we are doing it wrong and there's a good chance we'll continue to **** things up as BA.2 comes along.

the unvaccinated in this nation are doing it wrong. That’s who are dying in in the hospitals. But again the death percentage difference also comes down to America having an older population than S. Africa. It’s not an Apples to Apples comparison. 


Redfruit said:

the unvaccinated in this nation are doing it wrong. That’s who are dying in in the hospitals. But again the death percentage difference also comes down to America having an older population than S. Africa. It’s not an Apples to Apples comparison. 

You're right about it not being apples to apples. We have far more resources but also a far coarser apprecation for the health and welfare of others.

Those dying in the hospitals are also harming others who need medical care. You know, all those extra older people in the U.S., but we're not really considering those deaths and illness as part of the COVID pandemic. Too bad I can't really find that data to show just how clueless some people are.

Still, your assertion that our more elderly population is responsible is nowhere near the differnce required to account for the THREE FOLD greater death toll in the omicron wave.




I calculated the deaths as a percentage of the respective populations, thinking it would show me as being overly concerned. A 300% greater death rate is a strong indicator of how much our behavior outweighs any demographic differences.


PeterWick said:

This newer BA.2 version of omicron spreads faster and doesn't care if you have been infected with BA.1. Since that was over the past 3 months, one would expect to have some "natural immunity" but BA.2 just told the UK, Germany and Denmark "Hold my beer."
This means protection from your earlier Omicron may not be great if unvaccinated!

And, so, it continues.

Darwin's rule of survival for those who adapt seems to apply. Darwin survival changes take years, often generations.

Should this never end, the population that is not adapting, who are not smart enough to take the vaccines, will be culled over the years. It may low, 1/2 a percent a year, but over time it adds up. 


Ever wonder why there are much more people in America with chronic illnesses? With a cvs and Walgreens on within a quarter mile of each other, millions of Americans are on some form of medication. I think the general population of South Africa is much less dependent on drugs, and overall have a stronger immune system. Let’s face it, covid19 has exposed just how dangerous it is to have a compromised immune system. India was devastated, poor diet and diabetes played an important part I think. 
prescription drugs, sedentary lifestyle, and a weak immune system is why we’re like sitting ducks when the next pestilence comes along. 
This pestilence has taught me that it’s time for us to do some soul searching instead of hoping for things to return to “ normal “ … normal is no more. Adapt or perish. It’s only evolution giving is a wake up call. 


I feel this is part of the problem. We hear from experts that we ought not be concerned, such as this:

As a matter of fact, Scott Gottlieb believes we have good vaccines and antivirals to fight the new strain. He also believes we have the technology to shift vaccine production quickly to meet the new variants If required. I don’t think you should be attempting to panic people with unfounded info such as surfaces.

I am so glad the omicron variant did not have the property of surface transfer. That would have made what we now know omicron did seem quaint. Happy to have been wrong about that.

However, placing one's faith in someone like Gottlieb who says we have the tools to deal with it has been fatally foolhardy. That did not take into account the way we imposed a behavioral multiplier on omicron's impact. We have a strong contingent of voices spreading misinformation against using the tools that have been preteen effective over and over again as more data is collected.

Saying this new variant that did not have to arise so quickly wil not be as bad as I and others are warning about is putting others at greater risk.


PeterWick said:

I feel this is part of the problem. We hear from experts that we ought not be concerned, such as this:

As a matter of fact, Scott Gottlieb believes we have good vaccines and antivirals to fight the new strain. He also believes we have the technology to shift vaccine production quickly to meet the new variants If required. I don’t think you should be attempting to panic people with unfounded info such as surfaces.

I am so glad the omicron variant did not have the property of surface transfer. That would have made what we now know omicron did seem quaint. Happy to have been wrong about that.

However, placing one's faith in someone like Gottlieb who says we have the tools to deal with it has been fatally foolhardy. That did not take into account the way we imposed a behavioral multiplier on omicron's impact. We have a strong contingent of voices spreading misinformation against using the tools that have been preteen effective over and over again as more data is collected.

Saying this new variant that did not have to arise so quickly wil not be as bad as I and others are warning about is putting others at greater risk.

A couple things,  if you quote someone make sure you give them credit. I don’t think there’s anyone on planet earth that honestly  thinks you know more about science than Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the FDA. You may know your stuff; but he has forgotten more than you’ll ever know. That is not a slight  on you, that is a fact.   Gottlieb is an absolutely brilliant guy, a man at the top of his field. When he speaks, You should be taking notes. 


Here is an excerpt of an interview Gottlieb did with WBUR's (Boston) On Point program in September of 2021.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/09/21/former-fda-head-scott-gottliebs-lessons-for-controlling-the-next-pandemic

"And we're going to have to have that more fundamental discussion and debate. Because in order to have adequate preparations going forward, we're going to have to imbue public health authorities with more authority, more agency, more resources. But there's going to be people who are reluctant to do that. And so that's a fundamental debate that we need to have in this nation.”

--------- later on, he concludes with --------

"It's like a recession. We're going to know when it went from a pandemic to an endemic two quarters after it happened. Or, you know, a year after it happened. But we're in the throes, I think, of that transition right now. Delta is probably the last major wave of infection on the back end of this. This will start to settle into more of a seasonal pattern. But if COVID continues to spread each winter, which I believe it will. Alongside influenza, the combined impact on life, on productivity is going to be too great for us to be complacent about the risk of respiratory pathogens in the wintertime.

"We're going to have to reorder society in some fashion to reduce the risk from these twin pathogens. That means making buildings, improving air filtration and handling and putting hospital grade air filtration in buildings, the de-densifying offices where we can, improving work life to keep people safer from respiratory pathogens.”

What I said stands. He was not acting in a responsible manner in neglecting to follow up with that statement about having to address the public health deficits by strongly advocating for it. Instead, he reiterates platitudes along the lines of "It is what it is." and cites changes in infrastructure when we have proven over and over that diligent caution and using masks works, even if a person has not been vaccinated.

This is not to fault him for being wrong about delta being the last wave. So many other health experts were also speaking out from that hopium den. 


Redfruit said:

A couple things,  if you quote someone make sure you give them credit. I don’t think there’s anyone on planet earth that honestly  thinks you know more about science than Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the FDA. You may know your stuff; but he has forgotten more than you’ll ever know. That is not a slight  on you, that is a fact.   Gottlieb is an absolutely brilliant guy, a man at the top of his field. When he speaks, You should be taking notes. 

since you seem to have the inside poop on people we should never question, maybe you could provide us a list.

It would make our lives so much easier.

We could even get rid of discussion threads, since there's nothing for us poor know-nothings to really talk about.



PeterWick said:

Here is an excerpt of an interview Gottlieb did with WBUR's (Boston) On Point program in September of 2021.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/09/21/former-fda-head-scott-gottliebs-lessons-for-controlling-the-next-pandemic

"And we're going to have to have that more fundamental discussion and debate. Because in order to have adequate preparations going forward, we're going to have to imbue public health authorities with more authority, more agency, more resources. But there's going to be people who are reluctant to do that. And so that's a fundamental debate that we need to have in this nation.”

--------- later on, he concludes with --------

"It's like a recession. We're going to know when it went from a pandemic to an endemic two quarters after it happened. Or, you know, a year after it happened. But we're in the throes, I think, of that transition right now. Delta is probably the last major wave of infection on the back end of this. This will start to settle into more of a seasonal pattern. But if COVID continues to spread each winter, which I believe it will. Alongside influenza, the combined impact on life, on productivity is going to be too great for us to be complacent about the risk of respiratory pathogens in the wintertime.

"We're going to have to reorder society in some fashion to reduce the risk from these twin pathogens. That means making buildings, improving air filtration and handling and putting hospital grade air filtration in buildings, the de-densifying offices where we can, improving work life to keep people safer from respiratory pathogens.”

What I said stands. He was not acting in a responsible manner in neglecting to follow up with that statement about having to address the public health deficits by strongly advocating for it. Instead, he reiterates platitudes along the lines of "It is what it is." and cites changes in infrastructure when we have proven over and over that diligent caution and using masks works, even if a person has not been vaccinated.

This is not to fault him for being wrong about delta being the last wave. So many other health experts were also speaking out from that hopium den. 

This virus has been tricky, to scientists and doctors from Fauci on down who  have been fooled before and they might be fooled again. Covid is that good. However it, doesn’t  mean they’re naive or not to be listened to. Bad job by you trying to smear Gottlieb. 


Redfruit said:

A couple things,  if you quote someone make sure you give them credit. I don’t think there’s anyone on planet earth that honestly  thinks you know more about science than Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the FDA. You may know your stuff; but he has forgotten more than you’ll ever know. That is not a slight  on you, that is a fact.   Gottlieb is an absolutely brilliant guy, a man at the top of his field. When he speaks, You should be taking notes. 

Perhaps you did not appreciate that I purposefully left out the attribution so as to not remind people of your responsibility for furthering that mindset, but have it your way.

Here is his latest tweet as of February 12, 2022.

Scott Gottlieb, MD@ScottGottliebMD·13h

The BA.2 Omicron variant is increasing in prevalence slowly in both CDC and private data. While it may become a dominant strain in time, it appears increasingly unlikely that it will cause a significant change in the downward trajectory of the current epidemic wave.

Still, he neglects to remind people of how we already know how to NOT repeat the debacle we had trying to withstand omicron. That is irresponsible ****.


Here is a little background on someone who you say is brilliant. Medical knowledge is not always beneficial when it lacks ethical behavior. 

From March, 2019

https://www.citizen.org/news/press-statement-good-riddance-to-fda-commissioner-scott-gottlieb/

Note: Today, media reports indicated that Dr. Scott Gottlieb will be resigning as the commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Scott Gottlieb was entangled in an unprecedented web of Big Pharma ties when he was nominated in 2017 to be FDA commissioner. Not surprisingly, his tenure as commissioner was marked by regulatory decision making regarding medications and medical devices that tilted further in favor of industry’s financial interests rather than the interests of public health.

This includes the recent, reckless decision to approve the super-potent opioid, Dsuvia, and the withdrawal of a proposed rule that would have allowed generic drug companies to promptly update their labels with new warnings.

It’s imperative, but sadly unlikely, that the next nominee for FDA commissioner be someone who is independent from industry ties and will make protection of public health the agency’s top priority.


COVID may have unpredictable properties but it would not be continuing to develop new mutations as rapidly. How is it that omicron is causing just as many new daily deaths as delta in the United States when you and others have been saying it isn't as harmful as the delta variant? Again, my comments on the way our collective behavior has raised the severity of omicron's impact stands.

Whether Gottlieb knows more than I do is debatable, regardless of what you try to say as an insult. He has not met the standard of dedication to public health for someone expected to lead the FDA. This CNN report when he was hired was perhaps too kind.

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/04/health/fda-gottlieb-background-qualifications/index.html


Spent a large portion of today with my ‘Sisters’ at a Cancer Support Group coffee/lunch Catch-up. Happily chatting with my tablemates when I suddenly realise they’re covid vaccine resistance folk, and are spreading disinformation about blood clots, brain aneurysms, etc. I tried not to get involved or show horror, but then J said ‘… and of course no-one’s said anything about the flu this year, have they??’ And she and P scoffed and winked. 
‘Um, they have,’ I said. ‘The fluvax schedule is out, the various strains are identified, and the vaccines developed and almost distributed’

https://www.health.qld.gov.au/clinical-practice/guidelines-procedures/diseases-infection/immunisation/service-providers/influenza
So then they tell me I’m consuming ‘news’ not the real information - even though this isn’t news media derived and has nothing to do with Pfizer et al. You should have heard their eagerness to slap me down! Didn’t know about Lassa Fever in the UK (what’s that??) don’t care about the strains of flu here, because covid is just flu…. AAAGGGHHH!!!

And yet when it comes to cancers…  caring, careful, thorough….  question


Wait, Lassa fever? Heh, one of my favorite weird words, multivariate.

Someone came back to the UK with it, right?



I’ve read of at least 2, possibly 7 cases of Lassa in the UK in BBC and Guardian health articles.   I don’t believe any were community-acquired yet. 
Ah!

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/feb/11/person-diagnosed-with-lassa-fever-dies-in-bedfordshire


https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

The data are showing that this BA.2 variant might be causing tougher illness to kick.


PeterWick said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

The data are showing that this BA.2 variant might be causing tougher illness to kick.

that's disheartening.

but yeah, let's get rid of our masks.  smirk


drummerboy said:

PeterWick said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

The data are showing that this BA.2 variant might be causing tougher illness to kick.

that's disheartening.

but yeah, let's get rid of our masks. 
smirk

in Monmouth County today, it turns out COVID is over.  Very few masks on people in the Ocean Twp. Wegman's.


my Livingston Shoprite is still about 100% masked.


i stopped in a supermarket I don't normally go to in Union county...about HALF of the people were not masked


Peter - I read the title of this discussion.

What SARS CoV2 variants are/were unable to reinfect Covid-19 recoverees?

For instance: was the ancestral strain unable to reinfect someone who had recovered from Covid-19 back in early spring 2020?


FWIW: My cousin, living in NYC, got Covid just under a year ago, along with her husband and 1 month old.  

She recently moved to NJ, and started her 1 yr-old in daycare. The baby caught Covid at daycare, so they now all have it again, and they're all feeling wiped out by it. (I'm not sure if they were vaccinated or not). 


Jaytee said:

Ever wonder why there are much more people in America with chronic illnesses? With a cvs and Walgreens on within a quarter mile of each other, millions of Americans are on some form of medication. I think the general population of South Africa is much less dependent on drugs, and overall have a stronger immune system. Let’s face it, covid19 has exposed just how dangerous it is to have a compromised immune system. India was devastated, poor diet and diabetes played an important part I think. 
prescription drugs, sedentary lifestyle, and a weak immune system is why we’re like sitting ducks when the next pestilence comes along. 
This pestilence has taught me that it’s time for us to do some soul searching instead of hoping for things to return to “ normal “ … normal is no more. Adapt or perish. It’s only evolution giving is a wake up call. 

The U.S. healthcare system and pharmaceutical industry is set up to treat disease and health problems.

There should be more focus on healthy living and prevention.


ml1 said:

drummerboy said:

PeterWick said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

The data are showing that this BA.2 variant might be causing tougher illness to kick.

that's disheartening.

but yeah, let's get rid of our masks. 
smirk

in Monmouth County today, it turns out COVID is over.  Very few masks on people in the Ocean Twp. Wegman's.

COVID was over at the Jersey shore in the summer of 2020.


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