Omicron BA.2 wave may be causing a wave that is hard to quantify
Thank you Peter for helping us keep up to date on the ever-changing covid pandemic and now endemic epidemic infections. While I do read a lot, your posts are very very helpful. It looks like our covid wild ride is not over yet.
I'm thinking with the hospital and death rates staying low, that indicates that despite possibly having 10s of thousands of positive cases per day in NJ (we are at about 3000 reported), the cases are milder...due to the type of variant, previous infection, vaccinations....the 1918 pandemic was official for 26 months...we are at that point now.....just maybe with it becoming a milder infection, endemic is in the foreseeable future.
jmitw said:
I'm thinking with the hospital and death rates staying low, that indicates that despite possibly having 10s of thousands of positive cases per day in NJ (we are at about 3000 reported), the cases are milder...due to the type of variant, previous infection, vaccinations....the 1918 pandemic was official for 26 months...we are at that point now.....just maybe with it becoming a milder infection, endemic is in the foreseeable future.
I hope that is true but we're only now coming to see that while acute infections are less serious, the consequences a COVID infection may cause have royally **** over many people who were healthy and vigorous before contracting COVID. We still don't know how it is happening but I think people are taking misguided comfort in the term endemic. Yes, there may be many fewer acute cases that wind up causing severe illness. Great. But the number of people with lasting disabilities may one day be higher than the fatality total.
Don't get COVID.
RobertRoe said:
Thank you Peter for helping us keep up to date on the ever-changing covid pandemic and now endemic epidemic infections. While I do read a lot, your posts are very very helpful. It looks like our covid wild ride is not over yet.
Thanks for the vote of confidence. I do a lot of searching out of a morbid sense of doom and when I see something that isn't already plastered all over the place I post it here with my comments. By the way, if people have more questions you can always do a private message or post here. I've been swamped lately with papers to write of my own though. But I get to add 3 more letters (maybe 6) after my name in 11 days.
PeterWick said:
ridski said:
Cases are rising locally, but not panic-worthy according to Gov. Murphy. Of course, it's still best to avoid it, considering the after-effects, so I'm still masking in major public places.
Relying on the hospitalization or ICU bed occupancy rates may not be as valuable as it may have been with earlier waves. I've held off on posting many journal articles referring to the growing number of cases and recognized causes of long COVID sequela or PASC. Those problems usually do not send a person to inpatient treatment. They're most handled on an outpatient basis. Notice I didn't say "treated" since it is very hard to determine how these symptoms happen and are sticking around. Yes, it is after recovering from a COVID infection(s), but just what exactly is going on once the virus has supposedly left?
SO PLEASE! CONTINUE TO PROTECT YOURSELF WITH A MASK. YOU DO NOT WANT ANY OF THIS.
Until they have good evidence to explain the various symptoms, treating them is difficult. Gaslighting those patients and dismissing their concerns is pretty easy though. At least they have that down.
I think you meant to respond to jmitw, but thanks anyway.
ridski said:
I think you meant to respond to jmitw, but thanks anyway.
You're welcome but I was actually responding to the comment I culled out of your post. You mentioned the after-effects. I believe you're correct in keeping them in mind as the most important reason to avoid COVID now that less virulent versions of COVID are making the rounds. People aren't dying as readily. People with COVID haven't been flooding hospital wards lately, and I hope that continues. But the number of people with consequences that are hard to pin down is rising and the only thing they have in common is having recovered from an acute COVID infection.
I have yet to find published data breaking down the different variants and the array of problems people are left with once they recover from them. That I really want to see.
Apropos of this recent surge. It is small compared to the first wave and especially omicron's first version. The cases are creeping up but the deaths are still at a very low rate. I presume hospital capacity is still okay.
bub said:
How much of this was a Mothers Day explosion?
It would be interesting to examine the case trends in the month of May for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Springtime, people want to escape seclusion and see people again.
New Jersey showing a steeper rise in recorded cases this week. Essex, Bergen, Hudson, Morris, and Union counties all showed a stiff boost yesterday and today. They also recognize that since many are using at-home tests, there are positive cases that are probably going unreported.
Please wear a mask to protect yourself.
Cases are up significantly, and many of the families that have been particularly careful and avoided infection for two years have seen infections in the last few weeks, seemingly mostly due to transmission and outbreaks in our SOMSD public schools (one of my CHS student sons, who always masks at school, is in quarantine as we speak, and we are all awaiting PCR results).
Multiple local schools are putting mask mandates back into place for the short term to try to damp the spread. And much of NJ (including Morris County) has entered the "high" level on the new CDC metrics, as case numbers and hospital admissions climb.
(scroll to the top of the page and click on "community transmission levels" if you want the old-style map of how much infection is out there, rather than the map showing whether hospital admissions are rising. Spoiler -- much of the US has entered the red zone, and more counties are going red every day)
So if you have upcoming events you don't want to cancel (like the paid-for charity fundraiser dinner spouse and I won't be attending tomorrow night), put the mask on and be careful out there...
We had a little time before BA.1 and BA.2 began spreading here. There are more on the way. BA.4 and BA.5 appear to not care in the least that someone has been previously infected. Herd immunity is not possible with these variants.
Vaccination hasn't been a sure thing either. The mRNA viruses change easily folks. Making an updated vaccine and following all the safety precautions, even before an EUA, takes ***a lot longer*** than these variant cycles. Vaccination helps one avoid serious illness if infected but they cannot make a guarantee on that. Get boosted if you can anyway for your antibody production may have declined. Restimulating the immune response may help you ward off the virus' effects.
Masks, on the other hand, can be used today to protect you. Anywhere you're inside. Do it for yourself, please. You really don't want to get COVID.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern
Just heard a nice news headline on WNYC discussing Rutgers' new COVID test that could help track infections better and inform better treatment decisions.
https://gothamist.com/news/covid-tests-for-variants-rutgers
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Relying on the hospitalization or ICU bed occupancy rates may not be as valuable as it may have been with earlier waves. I've held off on posting many journal articles referring to the growing number of cases and recognized causes of long COVID sequela or PASC. Those problems usually do not send a person to inpatient treatment. They're most handled on an outpatient basis. Notice I didn't say "treated" since it is very hard to determine how these symptoms happen and are sticking around. Yes, it is after recovering from a COVID infection(s), but just what exactly is going on once the virus has supposedly left?
SO PLEASE! CONTINUE TO PROTECT YOURSELF WITH A MASK. YOU DO NOT WANT ANY OF THIS.
Until they have good evidence to explain the various symptoms, treating them is difficult. Gaslighting those patients and dismissing their concerns is pretty easy though. At least they have that down.