No Trade War-We Already Lost
What I am not hearing is any discussion about how we respond to a world in which we are no longer the largest economy. I know we had a panic in the 70's when Japan looked to be on an economic trajectory to surpass us in GDP. And the Soviet Union under Khruhschev threatened to bury us. But China is different by virtue of having 1.3 billion people and a government that, so far, has managed the balance of letting the people be capitalists while still maintaining an authoritarian grip on power.
What I do know is that Trump's populist shtick about telling the rest of the world to gth and trying to go it alone isn't going to work.
Soybean prices are down >3%. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/agriculture
I can't stand DJT. I think he is really taking this country to the dogs with his divisive rhetoric, inept management of White House staffing and general 'say it with conviction and people shall actually believe you are telling the truth' schtik.
However, I gotta agree with him on his views on trade and on (merit-based) immigration. And on (stopping) nation building (though, he clearly is not following what he preached regarding nation building).
Also remember: IMHO, these tariffs are surely only a opening negotiation ploy from the president that sometimes negotiates like a used car salesman.
The US does have a BIG problem a bit down the road - it has borrowed way too much: if long-end rates go up (remember: China was a big buyer of UST), we could have a problem bigger than the sub-prime crisis. Exacerbating that could be a negative repercussion in this tariff blinking contest with China.
I know that this forum is overall left-leaning (as am I). But don't forget: politicians are power brokers (that is how they reach to the top). The Bill / Hillary team is one. DJT is one. Don't look at them through rose-colored glasses.
People think that his employing his son-in-law to try solve the Mid-east crisis (!!!) was just pure ignorance on his part. He knew exactly what he was doing there. The Saudi crown prince's power and money grab would not have happened without Kushner's implied support. I wonder what the future benefit to Kushner and DJT shall be, but it shall be substantial.
This must have happened as part of those negotiations as well: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/saudi-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-backs-israeli-state-as-he-seeks-alliance-against-iran-q5llbftch
The power grab here is against Iran. Clearly, employing Bolton and Pompeo to their new positions are visual threats against both Iran and North Korea - typical DJT negotiating tactics to show that he means business.
Slevin said:
However, I gotta agree with him on his views on trade and on (merit-based) immigration.
To be honest, I don't know what Trump's view on immigration is, other than building a wall and trying to block brown people from entering the country.
dave23 said:
Slevin said:
However, I gotta agree with him on his views on trade and on (merit-based) immigration.
To be honest, I don't know what Trump's view on immigration is, other than building a wall and trying to block brown people from entering the country.
He has mentioned (and I agree) that with regards to immigration, we are to the left of Canada (which pursues a merit-based immigration system).
Yes, his comment on Mexicans (& those in certain African countries) is absolutely abysmal (and for all you know, he may be a closet racist). However, like it or not, you gotta admit that this policy shall help increase employment rates and wages for the lower middle class at the expense of the stock market. That could be a bigger boon to them than lowering taxes.
there isn't evidence that limiting legal immigration will help anyone economically. And there's quite a bit of evidence that limiting immigration will hold the economy back.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-wrong-immigrants-promote-economic-growth-2017-2
ml1 said:
there isn't evidence that limiting legal immigration will help anyone economically. And there's quite a bit of evidence that limiting immigration will hold the economy back.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-wrong-immigrants-promote-economic-growth-2017-2
Yes, but the argument is not about limiting any and all kinds of immigration. In fact, highly skilled workers' immigration has shown to be a big wealth creator to the US.
You don't need to quote aggregate studies (or a course in advance economics) to show that limiting influx of illegal and certain low-skilled immigrants should drive up wages for the lower middle class American workers. I'm saying that that is a better form of wealth redistribution.
Slevin said:
He has mentioned (and I agree) that with regards to immigration, we are to the left of Canada (which pursues a merit-based immigration system). Yes, his comment on Mexicans (& those in certain African countries) is absolutely abysmal (and for all you know, he may be a closet racist). However, like it or not, you gotta admit that this policy shall help increase employment rates and wages for the lower middle class at the expense of the stock market. That could be a bigger boon to them than lowering taxes.
The H1B requirements are quite high, very much merit- and skills-based.
As far as low-skilled work goes, I don't know that it will result in substantially better wages. I do know that agriculture is having a hard time filling the positions at the moment. If you have any details on how his proposals will increase wages (based on precedence, not hope), I'd be curious to see them.
There's nothing closeted about his racism. It's quite apparent and is the basis of his shrill rantings and immigration "policies."
Slevin said:
You don't need to quote aggregate studies (or a course in advance economics) to show that limiting influx of illegal and certain low-skilled immigrants should drive up wages for the lower middle class American workers. I'm saying that that is a better form of wealth redistribution.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/trump-clinton-immigration-economy-unemployment-jobs-214216
I visit a B&B working dairy farm in Lancaster County most summers and I notice that most of the workers are Mexican. I don't know how much they are paid and I don't know if they are here legally. But I do find it interesting that in Lancaster County which still has a decent amount of agriculture, the dairy farm has immigrant workers. And dairy farm work isn't nearly has hard as picking fruit or working in a meat-packing plant.
Low wage immigrant workers come here illegally because there is a market for them. If those jobs were to go to American citizens and be subject to legally prevailing wages and conditions what would be the effect on the economy?
Immigrants predominate in certain retail cash businesses, such as dry cleaning, fruits and vegetables,convenience stores. I do not know the reason but I would guess people born in this country want jobs with limited hours and high wages or want to start high tech businesses.
tjohn said:
I visit a B&B working dairy farm in Lancaster County most summers and I notice that most of the workers are Mexican. I don't know how much they are paid and I don't know if they are here legally. But I do find it interesting that in Lancaster County which still has a decent amount of agriculture, the dairy farm has immigrant workers. And dairy farm work isn't nearly has hard as picking fruit or working in a meat-packing plant.
Here's an article worth reading about dairy's reliance on immigrants, focusing on southern Idaho, where dairy is huge. The loss of immigrant workers could mean the end of the industry.
An important point raised in the article is that many Americans think there's a process for workers to come here legally, but there's not.
-------------------------
Supporters of the ICE proposal weighed in too. If immigrants were legal, they said, then they had nothing to fear. “I am tired of the illegals running things,” one supporter wrote on a Facebook page set up to push for the deal. “If you want to come here, then do it the right way.”
But there is no right way, local dairy farmers argued. They explained to elected officials and the public that the current immigration system does not provide visas for dairy workers to enter the United States, or a path for undocumented workers already here to become legal.
Other than through refugee or asylum programs, the only way that foreigners abroad can even qualify to apply for work or residency visas is through sponsorship by an eligible family member, a potential employer with access to visas or through a lottery for only certain nationalities.
...
Naerebout said some dairy workers would welcome becoming guest workers so they wouldn’t have to live in fear. But he also noted that if workers returned to their home countries and applied to become guest workers, they’d be ineligible because of a 10-year ban that punishes people for undocumented status.
If Congress doesn’t find a solution, the growing dairy industry in Idaho and nationwide at least want Americans to know what’s at stake.
“As a country,” Naerebout said, “we have to decide whether we want to import food or import the laborers to help us raise our own food.”
There aren't many Americans that I know who are willing to do the back-breaking work that many undocumented immigrants are willing to do. The prices of basic commodities are going to rise due to higher labor costs.
Slevin said:
ml1 said:
there isn't evidence that limiting legal immigration will help anyone economically. And there's quite a bit of evidence that limiting immigration will hold the economy back.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-wrong-immigrants-promote-economic-growth-2017-2
Yes, but the argument is not about limiting any and all kinds of immigration. In fact, highly skilled workers' immigration has shown to be a big wealth creator to the US.
You don't need to quote aggregate studies (or a course in advance economics) to show that limiting influx of illegal and certain low-skilled immigrants should drive up wages for the lower middle class American workers. I'm saying that that is a better form of wealth redistribution.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/trump-clinton-immigration-economy-unemployment-jobs-214216
This ^ 100%
We renovated our kitchen last year and hired a couple of “guys” from the next town over at the known “laborer spot”. We paid them a fair wage- $20/hr -and they were hard workers...and skilled. When people poo-poo that, I say that I didn’t see any local white guys out there looking for work.
It's not that American workers won't do the "back breaking" labor. It's that they won't do it at the wages that are being offered.
That's an important fact. And a troublesome one.
Hard labor should be worth more than poverty wages, whether it's carpentry or picking apples. But we like our cheap produce so we'd rather not do anything about it.
And I wouldn't call $20 an hour for renovating a kitchen "fair" by any stretch of the imagination. Fair to whom?
LOST said:
So says Trump:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/04/china-tariffs-us-imports-trump-500163
I know he's a lying piece of crap, but is he actually insane?
Insane if he thinks he can outlast a 4,000 year old culture that doesn't rotate its 'cabinet' every few months.
China is also the only one in this trade war with the nuclear option: it holds $1 trillion in US Treasuries, so it can create a recession in the US in 2-3 quarters just by not buying them and/or selling some.
drummerboy said:
It's not that American workers won't do the "back breaking" labor. It's that they won't do it at the wages that are being offered.
That's an important fact. And a troublesome one.
Hard labor should be worth more than poverty wages, whether it's carpentry or picking apples. But we like our cheap produce so we'd rather not do anything about it.
And I wouldn't call $20 an hour for renovating a kitchen "fair" by any stretch of the imagination. Fair to whom?
Machines that can pick fruit are being developed. If wages for this sort of labor go up, development of machines will accelerate.
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?
LOST said:
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?
Averages around $70k. Not to be sniffed at in somewhere like WV.
RE: immigration, I like the JP Morgan CEO's proposal: give green cards to immigrants who get advanced degrees in the US.
ridski said:
LOST said:
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?
Averages around $70k. Not to be sniffed at in somewhere like WV.
And you have a good chance of getting black lung disease.
https://www.popsci.com/black-lung-disease-coal-miners-appalachia#page-2
wedjet said:
ridski said:
LOST said:
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?
Averages around $70k. Not to be sniffed at in somewhere like WV.
And you have a good chance of getting black lung disease.
https://www.popsci.com/black-lung-disease-coal-miners-appalachia#page-2
Which is good, because nobody wants to mine coal after they are about 40 unless they are operating machinery.
Slevin said:
RE: immigration, I like the JP Morgan CEO's proposal: give green cards to immigrants who get advanced degrees in the US.
I wonder if that's how his Greek grandfather established his American citizenship.
ridski said:
LOST said:Averages around $70k. Not to be sniffed at in somewhere like WV.
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?
That figures to $33.65 per hour for a 40 hour week, 52 weeks.
ridski said:
LOST said:
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?ridski said:
LOST said:
Apparently there are native-born Americans who want to work as coal miners since they supported Trump because he said he would bring back those jobs. What do such jobs pay?$20.00 for working renovating a kitchen in a suburban home v. $33.65 in a coal mine.
Not sure either is "fair" but I have the leisure to think about it considering the education I received thanks to the job my dad worked which many would consider as menial and maybe even less skilled than coal mining or kitchen renovating.
Seems fair to me. The person renovating their kitchen valued the labor at more than $20 an hour. The laborer valued the $20 more than their labor. Everyone wins.
drummerboy said:
It's not that American workers won't do the "back breaking" labor. It's that they won't do it at the wages that are being offered.
That's an important fact. And a troublesome one.
Hard labor should be worth more than poverty wages, whether it's carpentry or picking apples. But we like our cheap produce so we'd rather not do anything about it.
And I wouldn't call $20 an hour for renovating a kitchen "fair" by any stretch of the imagination. Fair to whom?
The going rate for the gentlemen we hired, in our area, was definitely less than what we paid them. Work entailed ripping up the floor and reframing it, basic framing and Sheetrock.
terp said:
Seems fair to me. The person renovating their kitchen valued the labor at more than $20 an hour. The laborer valued the $20 more than their labor. Everyone wins.
drummerboy said:
It's not that American workers won't do the "back breaking" labor. It's that they won't do it at the wages that are being offered.
That's an important fact. And a troublesome one.
Hard labor should be worth more than poverty wages, whether it's carpentry or picking apples. But we like our cheap produce so we'd rather not do anything about it.
And I wouldn't call $20 an hour for renovating a kitchen "fair" by any stretch of the imagination. Fair to whom?
Agreed.
We can’t completely throw out the laws of supply and demand.
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So says Trump:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/04/china-tariffs-us-imports-trump-500163
I know he's a lying piece of crap, but is he actually insane?