Nicole Friday night

Tues, Nov 8

Nicole

Yes, it's the first week in November and I need to write about a tropical storm (OK, technically a subtropical storm).

Nicole is likely to make landfall on Florida's east coast at or near a cat 1 hurricane overnight tomorrow to Thursday, then run up the east coat, with the remnants arriving here as rain and perhaps a few gusty winds possibly Friday night.

The forecast is for rain Friday afternoon through Friday night and into Saturday *with or without* Nicole. A cold front moving in from the Midwest will likely bring rain and gusty winds anyway. Forecast of widespread 1 - 2" and gusts of 25 mph for the front could see another 1" of rain from the remnants of Nicole. Minor road ponding and field flooding is possible Friday night and Saturday morning. Timing and details subject to change.

Is there any chance that Nicole could follow the path Ida took? Sucking up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico like a conveyor belt? Thoughts?

Here in SE FL we're battening the hatches. This late-season hurricane is an unpleasant surprise! Lines at the gas stations and grocery are crazy!
As of this morning, it's looking to maybe hit further up the coast? Orlando's getting smacked again. Hope you MapSOnians don't get much!

Jaytee said:

Is there any chance that Nicole could follow the path Ida took? Sucking up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico like a conveyor belt? Thoughts?

Unlikely. The models have Nicole moving through much faster, and also never really crossing into the gulf

max_weisenfeld said:

Unlikely. The models have Nicole moving through much faster, and also never really crossing into the gulf

thanks max.

Wed Nov 9 Nicole update

The models are coming into better agreement on the weather this weekend. The anticipated track of the remnants of Nicole has continued to shift further west over the most recent runs of all the major models, and the areas of heaviest rain have moved with it into eastern Pennsylvania.

Forecast now looks to likely be 1 - 2" of rain falling over the period of Friday night and very early Saturday morning, although some light rain Friday afternoon wouldn't be a surprise. Wind gusts of 25 - 35mph overnight Friday and again Saturday afternoon are likely, too. Thunderstorms are becoming less likely with this system, and therefore there is less risk of flooding. Altogether, at this point it is shaping up to be a rainy, blustery fall night but nothing to buy milk and eggs for.

Pictures show the NHC cone and the shift in the GFS model track over the last few runs.

Thurs Nov 10 Nicole update

Forecast on track with previous guidance.

Rain likely develops Friday afternoon starting with light showers, then showers. Friday night a period of steady rain with a possible isolated thunderstorm. Total rain 1 - 2"

Gusty winds starting Friday afternoon, gusts 25 - 35mph possible. Some gusting winds could persist into Saturday morning, even after the rain tapers off.

max_weisenfeld said:

Thurs Nov 10 Nicole update

Forecast on track with previous guidance.

Rain likely develops Friday afternoon starting with light showers, then showers. Friday night a period of steady rain with a possible isolated thunderstorm. Total rain 1 - 2"

Gusty winds starting Friday afternoon, gusts 25 - 35mph possible. Some gusting winds could persist into Saturday morning, even after the rain tapers off.

then Sunday the cold air returns? If it’s windy after the rain ends it’s usually a colder air mass moving in. Just my observation over the years. 

Jaytee said:

max_weisenfeld said:

Thurs Nov 10 Nicole update

Forecast on track with previous guidance.

Rain likely develops Friday afternoon starting with light showers, then showers. Friday night a period of steady rain with a possible isolated thunderstorm. Total rain 1 - 2"

Gusty winds starting Friday afternoon, gusts 25 - 35mph possible. Some gusting winds could persist into Saturday morning, even after the rain tapers off.

then Sunday the cold air returns? If it’s windy after the rain ends it’s usually a colder air mass moving in. Just my observation over the years. 

Yes, Sunday is will be signifantly cooler that Friday/Saturday.

High temp in the low 50s.

Nov 11th update

Just a slight adjustment to timing, looks like the heavier rain will get here this afternoon (as opposed to tonight) but continue through the night, ending early tomorrow morning. Might still get a thunderstorm overnight. Looks like the total rainfall could be towards the lower end of the forecast 1 - 2" but higher if we get a thunderstorm. Gusts 25 - 35mph still probable overnight. The models are showing a dry slot of several hours between the first set of heavy showers and the overnight rain, so even if it's not raining when you go to bed, keep the dog's thundershirt handy.

Good thing I went out early and raked the leaves. Started raining just around 10am. Is Nicole running on jet fuel or what?